Member Info for Callasjunkie

The deferment to June as published by the courts service. DYOR.

Alaric,

What do you think about the further deferment in the court case?

Weird.

Sam, I don't normally reply to you...but, for the benefit of others, yes I don't hold this share...never have, never will, never shorted.
I became interested in this board as I had a lifetime in the oil business but was also acutely aware that not only were Fanning's oil ventures a debacle but prior to that he had a brokerage that went belly up followed by a telecoms business that went the same way in Ireland.
Now you're right I lost a modest amount on VEC having to sell on a technicality.
I'd say it's only in the halfpenny place compared to what you are losing on the other share you promote, Pantheon Resources. It's lost a whopping 87% of its value in past year.
So together with SLE, you may be forgiven showing your frustration by the nature of your comments.

Good try, Alaric.

First, SLE stated on 30 September 2022 that deliveries to the 'mother vessel' were continuing. Now, 7 months later the mother ship has not yet reached its capacity of 250,000 bbls. Are they filling it with an egg cup?

Second, there is no confirmation that the FSO is operational.

Third, there is no confirmation that putting oil into FSO storage would constitute a contractual sale giving hard cash.

Fourth, where are all thel 10,000 bbl extra barge cargoes that you imply are imminent going to come from?. I see nothing that OML18 is operational again.

Alaric,
Are you confused?
SLE's interim results are not audited.

?

Answering one of my 6 comments...you're upping your game!

The planned location of the Eli Akaso about 30kms from the coast.
You say barges don't operate that far.
Consider this from our associate Decklar Resources:

"The next phase, and the most likely mid- to long-term solution for an alternate export option is barging oil directly from storage facilities at the Oza Field along the Imo River to a floating storage and offloading (“FSO”) facility located offshore in shallow waters off the Bonny River; and
Options and logistics to transport oil by barge from the Oza Field to an offshore floating storage facility are currently at advanced stages of negotiations. Shipping and exporting the Oza crude oil using the barge and FSO system could enable higher crude oil volumes per shipment and greater transportation and cost efficiency."

Now Alaric, to the best of my knowledge, there are just three FSOs operational off the coast of Bonny and they are all 30kms to 30kms+ off the coast.

You may have a point that ELI has tied itself into a restricted arrangement with Shell. Its possible but highly unlikely that
Shell will pay for the crude until it moved on from the FSO.

I hope you are still working on the other 5 points I made.

Before celebrations begin, it would be useful to have answers to the following inconsistencies arising
from the RNS of 30 September 2022.
Here's an extract:

"· The Floating Storage and Offloading ("FSO") vessel is now on station, approximately 40 kilometers offshore, and is expected to be spread moored and operational for receipt of barging cargoes in the coming weeks.

· Oil barging operations from OML 18 to the mother vessel continued during the period. Once the mother vessel has reached its capacity of 250,000 barrels, the oil will be transferred to the FSO.

· Good progress has been made during the period on commercial negotiations with third parties who are expected to use the FSO when it is fully operational. Third parties will barge oil to the FSO when its operations commence.

· The pipeline contractor has recently commenced mobilisation to site and will recommence laying the pipeline component of the ACOES imminently. The full ACOES which will be utilised by Eroton, including the pipeline, is now expected to be operational in Q1 2023."

1. If the FSO was on station at 30 September 2022, why has it taken over 6 months to moor it?
2. Although mooring has been promised by 10 April of this year, there is no certainty that this has happened. As Fanning has missed every single self-imposed deadline for years back, I think it would be wise to await confirmation.
3. I have made the point before that 250,000 barrels, equivalent to approx 30,000 tonnes, is of sufficient size to be
delivered direct to a refinery, earning immediate cash. It might suggest that the 'mother ship' is far from reaching that
target. Putting oil on the FSO is not going to earn any immediate cash, its just storage.
4. Why use an intermediary 'mother vessel' at all, when it is stated that the FSO can receive barges direct? After all, that
is the method mentioned in the RNS as the method to be used by third parties.
5. Where is this sudden gush of continuing deliveries going to come from? Its now well-aired public knowledge that
OML18 production is zero, with its wells shut in.
6. The pipeline contractor is stated to be onsite on 30 September and about to 'recommence' pipelaying. If recommencing, why was it ceased in the first place?. What happened to the recommencement? Has it anything to do with the case before the Maltese courts seeking the winding up of Eli Infrastructure.

I look forward to a fulsome reply to these points from Alaric or Redmineyes (Sam you're excused for obvious reasons)

Notore Chemicals has just published its annual accounts for 2022.
They were filed a few days late, giving rise to a public apology.

Why is Notore relevant?
*It takes its feedstock gas from Eroton.
*Notore owes Eroton substantial amounts for that gas and that appears to be a significant factor in the dispute between NNPCL/Sahara and Eroton over the operatorship of OML18
*The major shareholder is Jite Okoloko, who also the major shareholder in Eroton.

In recent years Notore's operating performance had been abysmal, leading to significant annual losses and huge increases in borrowings. The profit and loss account and balance sheet would look even worse if it were not for constant revaluations of its investment site (taken straight to profit) and for 2022 a massive write up in of its fixed assets. As these are paper adjustments and not cash generative, they can't paper over the huge sinkhole in its finances.

The external auditors, Deloittes again raised concerns over the company as a going concern as the current liabilities dwarf current assets, despite shunting a sizeable chunk of short term debt into long term in a restructuring in 2021.

The 4Q of 2022 looks particularly worrying.
There was appears to be virtually no production. The press release states that this was for 'preventative maintenance' (pm) to improve production in 2023. Pretty extraordinary as 2021 saw a hugely expensive maintenance turnaround programme to do precisely that.

Furthermore interest costs went from 13 billion naire for the cumulative 9 months to end September to 23.2 billion naire at 31 December!!

I guess the real reason for the pm programme, making a virtue out of a necessity, was no gas feedstock supply from Eroton.

I have long posted how Notore has been using Eroton as a bank, by booking but not paying Eroton for its gas supplies. This year Notore paid for about half its gas supplies, but the amount due to Eroton still rose from approx $38.7m to $45m at current exchange rates.

As for 2023 Notore has mentioned the gas supply difficulties continuing.

Watch this space.

In one way, I'm genuinely in awe of Oisin Fanning's ability to reward himself while presiding over continuous failure. Despite never producing a drop of commercial oil, he has taken 18,581,797 euros in emoluments between 2008 and 2021. (The figure for 2008 made be a weeny bit overstated, as Annual Report doesn't give directors individual breakdown). I'm surprised he hasn't been offered the leadership of the Tory Party.

Agreed BlackSwan. The JV structure was originally intended to give the state participation through its national oil company, while providing for partners with expertise - outdated. The Afrex loan was intended to end the disputes with Sahara and pay off Eroton's bank debt. Can't see it happening as it will still see JV riven at loggerheads between NNPCL and Eroton. One solution is for JV to buy out Eroton and Bilton. Then can ACOES go ahead with residual bad blood between NNPC and Eroton, if Eroton stays major shareholder in ELI?

Alaric,
let me extend my admiration for your tenacity in the face of this shocking, orchestrated campaign.
Your castigation and dismissal of the Nigerian media is admirable and makes short work of the 20 or more Nigerian media organisations (I lost count) that have reported, in considerable detail, the takeover of the operatorship of OML 18 by NNPCL from Eroton and the reasons therefor. Most outlets have directly quoted extracts from a statement by Garba Deen Muhammad, the chief corporate communications officer of NNPCL.
If this is fake, well spotted!
I just wonder why, if the individual and/or the statement is fake, NNPCL did not issue an immediate retraction. Well, after all, this is Nigeria, as you might say.

One of the stated reasons given for taking the alleged action is that Eroton have not been collecting the not inconsiderable sales revenue from Notore Chemicals over a number of years , which by pure coincidence, is Chaired and substantially owned by one Jite Okoloku, Chairman of Eroton. I'm sure it cant have escaped your notice that Notore has been increasingly drowning in debt.

Here are two posts that were coincidentally made in your name in March 2022:

“RE: things looking good or bad for CJ? 02 Mar 2022 19:02
indeed for a non-shareholder in San Leon, CJ has surely invested some effort over time into trying to dig dirt on Jite Okoloko's business interests (for some reason with a bizarre focus on fertilizer production). but he doesn't ever answer my point that this has nothing whatever to do with San Leon’s investment case. that Notore owe Eroton money, whilst of itself may i suppose be interesting to some (yawn), it isn't to me and will play no part in my decision to stay invested in this company. he seems (dangerously) fixated on the idea that Eroton/ Midwestern have bought a pup in OML18 and suggests (i think?) that they and/or Jite are financially stressed. well each to their own i guess. i'm much more focused on the fact that Afreximbank appears to have agreed terms for a $750m facility with Jite. maybe CJ should raise his singular concerns with them? ( btw do let me know if you get a response CJ). in the meantime regarding investment advice, i think on balance i'll stick with Investors Chronicle rather than Chronic Junkie :-)”

“RE: things looking good or bad for CJ? 02 Mar 2022 11:42
well sam - looks like the cat got CJ's tongue and now Afailure answers for him :-) i didn't start the discussion on fertilizer (i don't actually see the relevance of fertilizer to San Leon’s investment case). as CJ did in fact start it, i assumed he might want to finish it? obviously not. am not sure CJ's much cop at this discussion forum thing...”

Your posts were in response to my posting about the very same things that seem, allegedly, to be the cause of Eroton losing its operatorship.

Was some imposter (excuse the pun) posting in your name?

Keep up the good work and don't let any fake news get in your way.

Sam. Are you ok? Very unlike Alaric to let you out to play on your own.

Red. I can only interpret your written words. Let's suppose that NNPC and Sahara have acted outside the terms of the JOA. Then I would assume that Eroton would seek a legal injunction, as time would be of the essence, pending a full hearing. Doesn't seem to be happening.
Of the two stakeholders, one is the Government owned State Oil Company, the other an energy conglomerate many times the size of Eroton.
The NNPCL reported statement specifically states that their actions are in compliance with the terms of the JOA. Let's see.
Waiting for that injunction.....

...and that shareholding is via MLPL and Martwestern. By the way, NNPC and Sahara own 71.8% of OML 18, not 60%.

Red. I don't understand your logic. SLE is not party to the JOA, so I fail to see how it can appeal or set any ball rolling. It's simply a shareholder in Eroton as I understand it.

Indeed. The implication is that Nnpcl will provide the finance and rescue its own interest. First question: is it a full supporter of the ACOES and will oversee a push through to completion? If not, the financial implications are huge as it would be hard to see ELI surviving.

BlackSwan, I hope you recover your investment but goodness knows where this going.

BlackSwan, I posted on a number of occasions that Eroton was bankrolling Notore. I guess the reason being that Notore was, and is, drowning in debt.
Can you see Afreximbank stumping up $750m to Eroton, when it has lost the operatorship of Oml 18?
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/03/07/nnpc-ends-jv-with-eroton-says-action-meant-to-halt-further-asset-degradation/