Member Info for CAINO_WINS

CARD generally does well from here into Q2, on average over the last 5 years the SP has increased 25% between now and end of April and that includes the nightmare that was 2019/20, excluding this the SP has improved around 36%.

Regards
Caino

Curator/ DBD,

Taking into consideration my figures below with cash in the bank of approx. £383m by xmas 2022 and a P/E of 2 (average UK O&G is 11.5) I would say close to £11. Ignoring any acquisitions, assuming drills in 2022 convert to 2P to 2C resource and have no impact or value assigned and disregarding any other wells coming onstream in 2023.

Regards
Caino

DBD,

At the current DTTF price 85.77 and, assuming it remains at this for the all of 2022, by xmas 2022 KIST will have cash in the bank approximately £383m which is nett of bond interest, OPEX and CAPEX, equivalent to around £4.61 SP. Your forward valuation for 2023 would essentially be based on a P/E of 0.75 for Q10A alone and management doing absolutely nothing.
Yet we have appraisals being undertaken for Q10B, Q11B and M11 in 2022, potential for securing additional assets and in 2023 we have planned first gas for Q10B, Q11B and Vlieland which could increase production by over 300%.
Even if DTTF price decreases and some of the planned appraisals and developments slip (which is often the case) I think you are short of a reasonable valuation come year end.

Regards
Caino

DBD,

What is your £8 based on? any calculations?

Regards
Caino

Brilliant insight there from MGW, like AA will do a poor deal for shareholders when he's a significant shareholder himself.

DPYC,

The Interim results presentation, issued 14th September 2021, on page 15 says end of March 2022.

Regards
Caino

Oli,
Look at what Juanicipio will add to production figures once fully operational especially the Valdecanas vein which has monster grades and reserves.
Regards
Caino

Poker,

91% of shares in issue are held by the top 10 shareholders so only 9% left.

Super,

I doubt that will happen with only 9% of shares in issue available, part of the reason this will move quickly, it is difficult to accumulate the volume required to have to notify the market.

CHRI55,

There were no mine problems.

That's right Noggers, averaging down just isn't an option and why would you buy a share you considered fair value at say 1200 when it's 750?
Think you and astro need to consider that 0.1% yielding building society account.

REgards
Caino

Astro,

Alternative view - The SP is falling = yield is improving, with silver around 80% higher what effect do you think that may have on the dividend forecast?

Regards
Caino

Astro,

There is no is no correlation between the physical and paper markets, paper PM contracts are manipulated yes, we deal in physical which at present is around a 50% premium which will be reflected in our results. Don't believe me? go and buy silver at spot and if you find some post the link here as I'll take the lot!

Regards
Caino

Put the rod down Ape nobody is biting today.

Regards
Caino

Dangerous game seeing as 91% of shares in issue held by top 10 shareholders leaves anyone short vulnerable to getting squeezed which would result in a very violent move up in SP.

Regards
Caino

Au,
If 91% of the shares in issue are held by the top 10 shareholders and there's a 6.5% short position it would strike me as a very risky position for a squeeze, or at least once they start to cover their positions this will move up very quickly.

Regards
Caino

JMT,
You're correct in saying 60% of the debt has been rolled over until 2050 on better terms making it irrelevant, however, FRES are still on the hook for the other 40% over the next few years until 2023 and must be confident they can afford to repay it so the debt is being reduced. Juanicipio coming online and the underlying commodity value at a level well above our AISC means the company is generating plenty of cash as yesterdays RNS, there is currently no other explanation for the SP other than manipulation at this point, however, when it moves up it will be quick.

Regards
Caino

PMs are finite while fiat is infinite, print twice as much fiat you'll need twice as much to purchase the same amount of PMs, unless you can create fiat gold/silver contracts from nowhere to manipulate the PM prices. What's been happening over the last few years is an ever widening disconnect between the manipulated paper price of PMs and actual physical, while these contracts weigh on the price of physical they are having less impact as confidence in fiat currencies erodes. Six years ago you could buy silver barely above the AISC of most miners, now the premium for physical silver over spot is around 50%, there's effectively a 2 tier pricing structure one paper and one physical and the market for real Ag is very strong right now and that will be reflected in our results.

Regards
Caino

Apologies jst, I should have been more specific , I was referring to the Birmingham Hospital win and he P22 framework.

Regards

Caino

Does anyone know what predetermined overhead and profit recovery KIE have? Also P22 uses Design and Build contract so comes with risk, we don't know how they've mitigated this.

Regards

Caino