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It is perversely comforting to hear that I am not the only one, hoodwinked by the apparent falsehoods that have come out from the company, under historical stewardship. I take no joy from that however, obviously, and wish for all of us we could turn back the clocks and have got out when the share price was over 60p!
Personally, I have destroyed my ISA saving to a near 6 figure sum and made a mess of mine and my wife's SIPPs. Fortunately, I still work presently (now for much longer than I hoped) and I have other pension provisions, but going forward, my intentions for life have changed drastically.
More out of stubbornness than belief I still hold but, the difference now is, I do not believe they will really come to much (I certainly will not get back the money invested) and my intentions are clear when I spot the exit sign illuminating.
On the positive side I have learnt a lot here, but a lesson I wouldn't wish on anyone....
I too am sitting on a huge loss (446000 shares @ 30p) but at the moment I still hold. Being totally honest, I now feel that the coning brigade have got this right, but Inside I struggle to believe that the modelling, the geology, the drilling analysis, the 'independent' reviews, the major investor due diligence and the (ex) good Dr have really got this so wrong and a few faceless individuals on various BB, twitter etc are right after all. Maybe I am an eternal optimist or maybe I am just a naive stupid fool. I know what my wife thinks the answer is at the moment!
Apologies if already posted, but note amongst that, it also appears we got the field determination on Lincoln, so this may not now be P&A?
ADUK
" And it seems utterly mad."
I too agree with that.
The OGA definition for Well intervention is "The re-entry of an existing well for the purpose of maintenance, workover, re- completion, suspension or abandonment operations.".
Take you pick, but date suggests P&A of Lincoln I feel :-(
Hi Beza, yes I guess Hywind is an example. I mean a floating (tethered) foundation rather than a conventional monopile or jacket foundation that is in direct contact with the sea bed.
AS, interesting thought. I work in the offshore wind industry and it is fair to say that floating foundations is the next big thing. I must say though, that innovative as it would be, I do hope this is not something they are considering for the FPSO. Floating foundation may be feasible WOS, but an extreme 'test bed' to say the least. Also might be connection challenges with both ends of the cable risers being connected to floating structures (rather than one fixed OSP)? Floating wind at the moment would also be a relatively costly way of getting a few MWs and I guess Hur would still have to foot the bill?
You decide, that would be apt for many on here methinks...........
Mr Zarniwoop, Thanks for that. I don't normally have much to offer here unfortunately, as also totally out of my depth technically (I am MIEE) with this company. Once when it looked like the conversation was heading towards ESP, I got really excited, but only because I understand converter controlled machines; even then though the power usually flows the other way.
Anyway we need some sort of greeting when we come across one another, like the US Marines 'POOBAH' ;-)
Thanks for the response ADUK.
I would certainly agree with the 'gut feeling', which is why I remain optimistic here, even though I am sitting on a huge paper loss.
ADUK,
I too noticed the BHP point that you responded on and I noted to myself at the time that the BHP plots in the CMD presentation (I think it was) showed plots following 'best' modelling assumptions. Thanks for clarifying the flowing point, which I think I understand.
When I was looking into this a little more it got me trying to read about permeability anisotropic properties as the ratio of vertical to horizontal permeability and how lower ratio is best for production and high ratio leads to greater water breakthrough. But then I read that in horizontal wells a high vertical permeability is linked to higher PI? This appears contradictory?
Apologies, if this has been posted before, but this low share price has got me thinking more about treasury shares being purchased and contributing to the future servicing of debt.
It seems a company is allowed to hold up to 10% of its stock 'live' in treasury shares. At the current share price 199 m shares would set the company back about £11m but when the share price inevitably rises, the benefit is obvious. Would it not in itself help the share price too?
I recall Richard Bernstein tweeting something about share buyback and some views aired on that at the time, maybe treasury shares is what he was suggesting?
Some of the recent posters on this board may have that many shares themselves, so I'm sure would understand this sort of financial trickery ;-)
Mjga, good luck to you too and all holders here.
AS, it certainly would have made him wince and maybe made his eyes water! ??
Hi mjga and thanks. As you ask and, FWIW. I am no oily, though.
I made my first purchase of Hur (26/6/14 @ 39.35p) and was dreaming ££. Throughout this time a lot has happened (as many on this BB could testify) and many figures have been banded about. The latest Hannam one for instance giving 45p core NAV. Presently, it appears the market (ignoring any price change in 2p reserves based upon oil price) assigns around a 50% CoS to Lancaster and 0% to everything else, to give a core NAV around 7p. Clearly, if you believe in the story that cannot hold, but I do wonder sometimes about the rabbits the good Dr needs to pull out of his hat.
Personally I like the David Bernstein valuation of c. £17 billion and at the moment I hold dreaming of that day and imagining what I would spend my hard earned investment on!
Like many here I am way under water and have taken advantage recently to average down a little. Having held since 2014 I am also feeling the pressure of my personal Hurricane journey.
I have been trying to do some estimating on the effects of 7 shutdown to our break even costs (and overall cost inc bond repayment, admin etc) and using historical presentation data, I have linearly interpolated based upon production to estimate cost per barrel. Maybe this could provide a reasonable estimation of cost variation across the range 10000 to 18000 bopd.
Using Cost = -0.001X BPD + 35 gives the estimations in $ per barrel. Adding $9 gives the total cost including admin and bond payments.
This estimates that at 10k bopd breakeven is $26 ($35 inc bonds etc) and 16500 is $18.5 ($27.5).
Anyway provided in good faith and GLA.
In the presentation in this link (see slide on GWA drilling), it advises one of the 2019 wells being tied back to AM. Does that not mean, given results, it would be the Lincoln drill? But on that basis, the question over p&a and commerciality of WW is a total misnomer.
https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/download_file/force/454/258
Presumably WoW comes at a cost. But guess it is a cost to Bluewater, not Hur? Programme risk to a degree is already factored in.
IMO the company ARE giving us a message: business as usual!
Excellent photos Sipp!
Why is the buoy connection 'a one chance operation'? It is called a "disconnectable TMS".
Not disputing the big ships video, but is everything necessarily related to our buoy?
The company who supplied Pelegríno buoy identify the ability to connect and disconnect
http://www.firstsubsea.com/products/deployment.html
Charts show a force 11 gale developing from Monday, with 40 ft + swell level. My conclusion (fwiw) aligns with the likes of well well, she is heading for cover from weather.
If the magic seaweed charts are to be believed (speaking as an 'old' surfer, they are usually pretty good), Cromarty is the nearest location that misses the brunt of it.