Member Info for BouncyDeadCat

It's that article piece that has tanked the price today.

BoD can release a statement via RNS to address it if it's not true.

If we don't get a statement via RNS tomorrow, then market can only assume it's true.

There's a timeline for FID which they put down as Q1 2025.

3 steps between end of drilling and then....

1. Evaluate and integrate drilling results.

2. Update FEED and development plan.

3. Agree GSA.

FID.

Legalwolf,

The terms are the terms. If they discovered 3Tcf of gas Chariot couldn't renegociate for more percentage or negociate a higher carried CapEx (above $850m). It works both ways.

It's either 45% or 55% for an extra $65 million to Chariot.

They could of course pull out at the FID stage, but one presumes that would mean handing back their 45% stake to Chariot.

Very misleading headline.

Refers to the pilot hole, not the main drill.

Surety,

If they find gas in N flank, the SP will shoot in the opposite direction.

NorViking,

They aren't drilling the same O sand in A3. They're testing the N flank prospect with a potential estimated resource of 213Bcf.

NorViking,

I don't think it has any relevance to the 3 other targets as these are much deeper sands. The funny thing is, these could all be much higher than pre-drill estimates and this could just be a period of great anxiety for investors (Never feels funny at the time though).

Surety,

The pre-drill estimates of the pilot hole were unknown, so not this.

B sands in A2 are known and they are quite thick, so assuming (rightly or wrongly), that it's referring (read-through) to B sands in Anchois-3?

Anyone got a better interpretation?

Legalwolf,

It was their MO up to now. Not anymore imo.

JohnHenry,

Reading between the lines, although they encountered gas, the B sands in this location don't sound as bountiful as hoped for imo.

From Energean:

Anchois (Morocco) drilling operations continue, with preliminary analysis indicating volumes found in the Anchois-3 well are lower than pre-drill estimates. Further updates to follow once Anchois-3 ST drilling operations and ongoing technical evaluation are complete.

From Chariot:

Main Hole ("Anchois-3ST") operations are under way as per the operational plan. Preliminary interpretation indicates the presence of gas bearing reservoirs in the B sands, being an appraisal objective of the well and further detailed work will be needed to understand the impact of these results. Drilling operations continue to evaluate deeper appraisal and exploration objectives.

Harrycarter,

I think they would be more likely to sell to an investment bank or consortium than to Energean at a snip.

Where in the world can you buy 200-300Bcf of gas for $25m?

1 Bcf is currently worth $8,400,000 in Morrocco.

Legalwolf,

The BoDs own 13% of the company, that's a lot. If they were to raise again, they would be hurting themselves.

Legalwolf,

There are 3 targets still left to drill and then flowtesting. So estimates are yet unknown. All we know so far is that B sands in this location were thinner than expected (unlike in A2) and the pilot hole (which was a bit of a wild card anyway) was water-bearing. C sands, M sands and N flank in the main hole still to go.

The terms are the terms, if Energean don't elect to purchase the additional 10% stake then Chariot will have to fund themselves into the future. This isn't going to be possible, so my guess would be they sell their 30% to an investment bank or to Energean outright and explore other assets.

Providing they prove up a decent amount of commerical gas in Anchois (worth developing), then their 30% stake will be worth a lot in a sale. Way more than £35m.

Let's hope news Re the next 3 targets is good!

Starbanker,

Or prove up 630-800bcf in this drill campaign and sell their 30% outright to Energean or an investment bank to develop.

Zahrab,

It's a gamble at this point. 3 targets left to test in the main hole.

C sands, M sands and the N flank left to drill in the main hole.

Couerdelion,

Like I said in my earlier post, the RPI doesn't reflect reality so RPI +1.28% bonds is a guaranteed loser in terms of purchasing power. When you say they change the way they calculate RPI, yes I agree. They have changed it in the past and will do again. This usually involves swapping out items that have gone up too quickly and replacing them with others that haven't gone up so much. It's an exercise in 'fudging'.

When it comes to RPI it's effectively a request by government to not believe your own lying eyes and to believe the figures they give you instead. No thanks and no to RPI linked paper instruments.

In relation to the current drill, financing numbers are largely irrelevant, experienced ii's won't be looking at them right now and neither will anyone else. It's all about how much commercial gas is there in Anchois.

If there's 1Tcf of commerical gas in Anchois and Chariot still have little to no money left, they could always sell their share of Anchois gas for a discounted NPV ($750-900 million). That would still leave them with big stakes in Rissana & Namibia that they could work up and the SP backed at cash value only would work out at 48p-58p per share.

Not sure how much news we're going to get now that ENOG are the operator.

I think all we need to move the price is news that they found more gas in the O sands and that flow testing went well with results to follow.

Couerdelion,

Before voting in a socialist government, Venezuela used to be one of the richest countries in the world (in the top 20). It's now a basket case and all of its productive citizens have fled the country. Things can go south very quickly when ideological socialist idi0ts seize power. We should never assume Britain is somehow immune to such a fate.

I also disagree with the notion that when it comes to government bonds, the investor only has to worry about the return. I'd argue the investor has to worry more about the loss of the purchasing power of those returns. From my own experience and the experience of my close family and friends, the RPI is a fabricated piece of fiction. Since 2021, my energy bill has tripled, my food budget (purchasing exactly the same food as 3 years ago) has doubled and my car and mortgage costs are 35% higher, yet the RPI tells me that the inflation rate has only been an accumulated 25% during that same period of time. So the return from an RPI linked bond wouldn't even have covered the rise in my living costs, let alone give me a REAL rate of return. So any long-term fixed-interest bond, denominated in fiat, remains an inappropriate investment in a world where the value of paper currency seems almost certain to shrink further. Bonds have too many structural weaknesses to appropriately serve as any kind of long term investment.

Good luck with whatever you decide to do.