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Large buyer over the last week soaking up the sells if this continues we will see a RNS on holdings if one of the current investment company is topping up.
The share will travel either in the fast or slow lane but will continue upwards.
OPEC Oil reductions start on Monday.
Come on a new CFO is not going to sign off the accounts with his name on it until he has gone through them with a fine comb.
Suggest you give the New boy a chance to do his work.
We already know their going to be good.
I still can’t see any issues and have topped up 5 times in the last three weeks.
Just don’t tell my wife the account is empty.!!
Will we see oil going up with the cuts from next month on top of strikes
More UK North Sea Oil Workers to Start Striking This Month
Union says 1,350 members to start 48-hour stoppage on April 24
Action will affect platforms run by BP, Shell, TotalEnergies
Page 12
Question1
Last year info on production and information on budget for this year 2023
Question2
See previous post.
Should be hitting 26,000 by Autumn.
Plus you never know what else is happening in the background
If oil stays above $80 for every $1 =extra2.5 million
GGG
Peak
26,000 by September of this year.
read April 2023 presentation which has come
Risked 2023 production profile delivers peak production of ~26,000 boe/d (Sept 2023)
• 13% year-over-year growth to >22,900 boe/d average for the year despite significant impact from downtime associated with Central AB turnarounds midyear 2023 (estimated impact of ~5,000 boe/d for June or ~415 boe/d on the annual average)
• Excluding midyear turnarounds, year-over-year production growth is estimated at 15%
• Capital efficiency associated with 2023 budget on par with 2022 results
when have you ever read the following written on a share award for a company member?
-Regardless of the above, 100% of the options will vest if there is a change of control of the Company.-
This means that even if the 3 measures are not hit and we are taken over all the shares vest. Now as we are all nai on certain that the measures will be hit in quite short order, to me the REGARDLESS caveat is inferring that we could be taken out in the short term before the reasonably short tern nailed on measures are met. With our reserves now, I agree with others on here that we could be subject to a T/O. Whilst commodity prices play a big part in the SP, it is very much sown to the BOD and Financial IR (Camarco) to get the SP up in short order in the run up to a potential take-over. I see the recent broker notes as good guidance as to what we are worth
A waiting game increase production and sell the company.
100% of the options will vest if there is a change of control of the Company.
Cant be more obvious.
We are very pleased to welcome Jason to the team so as our new group CFO, following a thorough search process. His broad financial reporting expertise across the energy sector value chain and M&A experience will be invaluable to the Company and we look forward to working with him to deliver our growth strategy as we expand our operations in Canada.
Short term 6 months 30p
Long term 2 years 60p
Have some info to go with it on oil short term.
You may find this info interesting.
Specially the last bit
Onwards and upwards
Surprise OPEC+ supply cuts announced on 2 April risk aggravating an expected oil supply deficit in 2H23 and boosting oil prices at a time of heightened economic uncertainty, even as industrial activity slows in the world’s largest economies and production growth outside the alliance appears robust. The bloc’s self-described “precautionary move” immediately triggered a $7/bbl jump in North Sea Dated crude to $85/bbl, up nearly $15/bbl from March lows.
The apparent weakness in industrial activity is impacting gasoil demand, whereas the services sector and personal consumption are driving gasoline and jet uptake. While gasoil cracks have eased, those for gasoline continue to trend higher. Consumers confronted by inflated prices for basic necessities will now have to spread their budgets even more thinly. This augurs badly for the economic recovery and growth.
The latest OPEC+ voluntary curbs of 1.16 mb/d come on top of an announced 500 kb/d cut in Russian output from March that has now been extended through the rest of the year, and a 2 mb/d reduction in targets taking effect last November. While apparently a move to support declining prices amid financial turmoil in mid-March, rising global oil stocks may have also contributed to the decision. In January, OECD industry stocks surged by 53 mb to 2 830 mb, the highest since July 2021 and only 47 mb below the five-year average. Preliminary data for February show further builds, albeit at a much slower pace. By March, however, the trend was already turning, with OECD industry stocks plunging by 39 mb – their biggest monthly decline in over a year.
While oil demand in developed nations has underwhelmed in recent months, slowed by warmer weather and sluggish industrial activity, robust gains in China and other non-OECD countries are providing a strong offset. In 1Q23, OECD oil demand fell 390 kb/d y-o-y, but a solid Chinese rebound lifted global oil demand 810 kb/d above year-earlier levels to 100.4 mb/d. A much stronger increase of 2.7 mb/d is expected through year-end, propelled by a continued recovery in China and international travel. For 2023 as a whole, world oil demand is forecast to rise by an average 2 mb/d, to 101.9 mb/d, with the non-OECD accounting for 87% of the growth and China alone making up more than half the global increase.
Meeting those gains may prove challenging as the new OPEC+ cuts could reduce output by 1.4 mb/d from March through year-end, more than offsetting a 1 mb/d increase in non-OPEC+ production. Growth from the US shale patch, traditionally the most price-responsive source of more output, is currently limited by supply chain bottlenecks and higher costs.
Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial sup
Tamarack Valley (EV/PDP = £27.7/boe)
(RLI 2P = 10.3 yr, RLI PDP= 3.2yr, PDP = 75.7m boe, 2P = 242m boe, Liquids= 82%, 64k boepd, CW = 734 net sec, EV=£2.1B)
Headwater Exploration (EV/PDP = $47/boe)
(RLI 2P = 5.2yr, RLI PDP = 2.5yr , PDP=16.6m boe, 2P = 34m boe, Liquids= 88%, 12.8k boepd, EV= £781m)
Cardinal Energy (EV/PDP = £9.17/boe)
(RLI 2P = 14.7 yr, RLI PDP 10yr, PDP = 77.6m boe, 2P = 113m boe , Liquids= 91%, 22k boepd, EV=£712m)
Surge Energy (EV/PDP = £16.8/boe)
(RLI 2P = 13.4 yr, RLI PDP = 5.1yr, PDP= 44.6m, 2P = 122m boe , Liquids= 85%, 24k boepd, EV=£750m)
I3e (EV/PDP = £4.16/boe)
(RLI 2P = 22.5yr, RLI PDP = 6.8 yr, PDP 49m boe ,2P = 184m boe, Liquids= 51% , 23k boepd EV=£204m)
Thanks for posting tony requires posting regularly for newbies
Divided 10% a year
High take over prospects.
Reserves
For those looking in or new investors
How good or otherwise the reserves report is, I think you need to compare against peers – refer to the numbers I put together below. These were the companies highlighted by WHI in their last report as the peer group – I added Surge Energy to the group. Tamarack & Headwater are held in Eric Nuttals fund and Surge is Shubham Gargs top pick so I would say they are amongst best in class.
So, these are my observations:
1) Relative to its size - i3e’s 2P reserves at 184m boe are substantial with an RLI of 22.8yr and only just behind Tamarack at 242m boe which is a considerably larger company, however Tamarack has a much smaller RLI of 10.2 yr. Bear in mind that there are some companies such as MEG that have considerably higher 2P RLI’s but I would say not too many. So i3e compares very well against the peer group and probably very well against the sector as a whole.
2) If you refer to WHI’s report – they calculate i3e’s EV/2P at $1.40 / boe versus $15.73 / boe for the peer group i.e. about 1/10th the peer group. You need to bear in mind that the peer group are oiler meaning that each boe is worth about x2 that of i3e at current gas prices, however, even allowing for this, it still indicates that i3e’s 2P reserves are valued at a fraction of its peer group. I have included this ratio based on PDP reserves below which shows i3e in an even more favorable light.
(EV = enterprise value and is basically Market Cap adjusted for debt – so the above ratios are telling you how much the market are valuing each barrel of oil)
3) I3e’s reserve replacement ratios were also very good - 176% (PDP basis) & 479% (2P basis) meaning for every barrel produced they are replacing it and adding a further 0.76 bbl (PDP) and 3.79 bbl (2P) to reserves i.e. not only can they increase production significantly year on year but will still be adding to reserves for quite a few years yet.
4) There are some nuances here including but not limited to unbooked drilling locations which are not included in reserves. Headwater for example have the worst numbers based on the above metrics but are one of the highest rated Companies on a EV/CF basis – why – because they have over 400 sections in the Clearwater play which as most know have the best economics in North America and it is lightly booked. Good news is that i3e also has a decent land position here along with Simonette and also Wapiti which i3e stated surprised to the upside which you can see from the well results and also why i3e are drilling so many wells there.
Bottom line is that i3e’s acreage is considerably undervalued and should start to be recognized as such by the market , I believe this will correct over time and also probably means as some have suggested here that i3e could well be a take over target