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That concurs. Say £250million to break even then
£50million left over plus £100 settlement and it's
£150 plus.
You read it in Simply Wall street most likely
Karv1 you write as if you are sure the deal will be signed. Prothero had said he is confident that after due diligence and so forth a deal will be finalised by the end of the year but the details are not out and with the SP at 659 the votes are not 'in' it seems.....There is clearly something we do not know....If it goes back down to 615( pre announcement SP ) that surely is an indication that the deal is a non starter.
Karv1 and Thorpyuk. I can't agree with you both more! Not giving us most of the £300 million to us
Is downright theft or amounts to a forced rights issue. When the deal was first announced, one site said the shareholders get a 'juicy £300 million payout as well'. But the Construction Enquirer in an interview with Galliford try quoted a senior Galliford Try spokesman saying this will all go into the constuction company!!!! Try is mostly owned by institutions. Given the shareprice I think they are waiting to see the fine details. It would not surprise me if later on the terms are varied in davour of the shareholders receiving more cash benefit.
The rise was politically led as was the fall.
Karv1, when you sold at 699 with a profit you did well because your average was much lower than mine! Many years ago I started investing with GFRD for retirement income. I was not too bothered with the SP because I believed the company would never go into receivership . I enjoyed the seemingly guaranteed 37k to 48k dividends I received per annum! Even if I get my money back I will not enjoy the same income that I received when GFRD was a lowly 550! I am attempting to mitigate this as much as possible. So I sold up at 690 a few days ago shortly after you and now if I buy back at 668( at the time of writing) I will have a few percent more shares and therefore more income. I am taking a risk ..some would say. I follow the price all day and noticed yesterday that the moment there was a hint that proroging parliament may be found to be unlawful the SP shot up. It came down again after all the excitement wore off and Mr. Johnson said he would ignore the ruling unless he was told by the Supreme Court that he must recall parliament. So I have till next Tuesday to buy back before it really becomes risky for me. By the way, Bovis is tremendously cash rich. So much so that it's existing shareholders are due for bumper payouts within the next year or so that will not apply to us. Look up BVS and Gfrd on Simply Wall Street and you will see what I mean. The day before the results ,when GFRD announced it's possible firesale, the SP opened at around 750 but very quickly started to fall. I sold out at 690 and bought back at 654 on the same day. I am reassures me that because the SP did not hold up, it sent a signal that the market did not look favourably upon the possible deal (designed to line the pockets of both CEO's in my opinion) . So after rebuying I owned about 4% more shares( and income).The SP settled below 700 that day. The RNS the following day stirred the SP upwards slightly more due to the fact that there was no more extraordinary bad news although Prothero managed to sneak in an extra 10 million's worth of losses that were not reported as anticipated in the previous mid term statement. I do not trust him however I will be fully in at the ex div date in November.
One thing..if Brexit is resolved by then the SP will be much higher. Call me bullish ..I even think it could be 760 ish. However I do not think Bovis will rise as much on a proportional basis making GFRD more of a firesale/ bargain. The restructured company can look after itself and does not desperately NEED Bovis in my opinion.
I want this deal to disappear from the horizon...
As I posted, there is a slow and steady decline which will continue punctuated with sharp rises which never hold. After all, the news is out and as I repeatedly say , what on earth is there to like about the BVS offer? The previous offer was much better for SHAREHOLDERS. It appears to me that this one is effect a thinly disguised rights issue where the shareholders suffer and the BVS ceo cleans up. Prothero intimates that this is a done deal ..of course it isn't. There is a long way to go as the details about what the company is using the cash for and details of the business plans for the residual construction company have not been represented. Galliford Try is over 90% owned by institutions. If this deal was as good as it was made out to be by Prothero ( who earns only half the salary of the Bovis CE0) the SP would be holding. The BOVIS ceo openly stated that he is
'Heavily invested' in BVS and is looking forward to the completion of this deal. I'll bet he is ..GFRD is being sold for a bargain!
All to play for. The recent Bovis rise will 'do a Galliford' and gradually come down to 1075ish IMHO. I have baselined a 740 price for both companys combined post deal. I will sell my Galliford Try shares immediately thereafter (they will squander the 150 million cash surplus which by rights should be ours!)and keep the BVS
Shares. The synergy created comprising Linden Homes, regeneration , and Bovis will be like BVS on steroids. ONLY THEN do I think the SP will rocket esp if Brexit is resolved.
Shame you are out, Karv1. My average is higher so
Am hanging on. The Ft 2 days ago thinks the rump will easily be above 136 if not much more so add this to at least 600 for Try and you are most likely to achieve 736 plus the dividend of 35p making a total of 771. Wishing you well!
The Ft yesterday calculated that as things stand the deal would place a residual value of £150 million for the rump construction company. That
equates to a SP of 136 ( in their opinion undervalued). But who knows what GFRD will do with the money. They keep on messing up and this year made a real loss of about £15 million when you exclude the exceptionals and restructuring costs. Construction revenue is down
due to more cautious bidding. About half the revenue comes from construction. However more discipline and a slimmed down workforce may produce a profit if they get their act together.
But who wants to invest in a construction company with a 2% margin ( and a chequered history)in these uncertain times? I was realistically holding long , enjoying the generous dividends, and expecting a recovery to the 900's.
I agree but for me it was the dividend income I was after. SP now seems to have hit its upper limit. Usually the pattern has been a slow, steady decline but now it's a different scenario with a promise for some . But why invest now at £7 when that is all you might get in total after a deal? It can only mean the rump value could be much higher than 90p or so. I very much hope the instutions turf this deal out the window We will eventually find out more as time goes by....
Please enlightem me wrt this being a good deal?
My average is unfortunately low 900 and I was hanging on for the long term.
Correction 0.062% shareholder and NOT 0.43. Too early in the morning for me! Apologies.
Thanks Londoner7. Karv, you and I are singing from the same hymnsheet. As a 0.43%shareholder
my vote to trash may help just a little... but every little helps. Yes, it appears that the deal is all wrapped up between the two parties but will the institutions accept it? I am not so sure they like it as much as Galliford Try! It depends on their average SP's and politics. Our future 'trade in' share price is crystallised at .574 % of a Bovis share. The joker in the pack is the value of a cash rich Galliford Try construction company to add to this. There are all sorts of estimates ranging from 90p to a scorching £300. The timing of the sale is crucial. If we have a hard Brexit or a Corbyn government choas will reign and construction will flounder. My view is that political uncertainties may temper the enthusiasm of the big players to jump into bed with this deal at such uncertain times. If we leave with a withdrawal agreement( I hate the word 'deal' because it isnt one ) by October 31st Galliford SP will fly and could reach 800 plus because it is clearly undervalued at the present. However Bovis is already high and will most likely not be substantially higher, maybe 1085 at best. Therefore to trade your £8plus TRY share for about £6.5 worth of Bovis seems even more rediculous. A deal would be a welcome boost to the construction side of the company which after its restructuring will start to pull its own weight and not require the cash injection as it appears to do now. Food for thought.....
Ok, assuming Try takes all the cash and we are left with £6 worth of Bovis share per Galliford Try share currently worth about £6.80. We are all down by 80p and invested in a company which will pay less in dividends. What else is left in the kitty for us? Surely our Try shares will not be worth more than a pound or so. Add this to the £6 and its£7!! So what is driving the shareprice up when I can see no tangible benefit for us if the sale goes through?
Consider the previous offer. One Bovis share for one Gallifird try share was a much better offer for shareholders. This second offer, although in effect 25million more, leaves us in the lurch and swells the coffers of the remaining construction company with slim profit margins.
Can anyone put forward a convincing argument for me to hang on?
All of it should be ours. I spoke with the editor of Construction Enquirer who is chasing this up. If the message was incorrect it could have caused many shareholders to needlessly sell. In the meantime I have tried several times to speak to Galliford Try but they are always unavailable. Why on earth would anyone but at the current price if this were to be true?
I will be contacting Galliford try directly for an explanation re 300 million. If what is written is true some of us have been pushed under a bus...
I have just read that the £300 million will go to the company leaving it with a cash surplus of 150 million according to the Construction Enquirer. This is in effect a forced sale for us at about 595 with a rump of Galliford Try which will be worth a pound or so. This cannot be the case as the previous offer was a share for a share. What am I missing??
Something is not right as the SP is around 690ish as I write. We appear to have been sold short!!
It should be all ours as part of the deal.
Ok, it's a bit confusing but as I see it we get
1) .574 of a Bovis share ..say Bovis is £10 so we get £5.74 per TRY share
2) £300,000,000 divided by 1,100,000 ( approx number of shares) per share as cash which is £2.73
Per share.
The total equates to 9.37 pee share.
3) we still have our Galliford Try shares which will be the share price at the time of deal less £5.74
At todays price that is 90p