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Look at my posts to see if I am a liar.
The best you will do is to say I used the word brochure instead of email.
I have had correspondence with one of those companies, which confirms Lord Allen requested a visit and asked what they thought of £1.70.
They said too low.
Not sure it helps and I am not saying who.
I received the following in a brochure from a large holder, where they give their thoughts on companies.
I have just copied a few bits.
That is all I am saying, it was written a month ago.
Draw your own conclusions but I thought positive, not saying any more.
In our view, the FY22 forecast is not demanding, after downgrades in 4Q21 management got the numbers in a sensible place with a further downward revision earlier this year. The reasons for the previous downgrades were 1) slightly softer than anticipated revenue growth, 2) whey protein powder cost inflation, 3) freight cost increases, 4) unfavourable FX moves (particularly Japanese Yen), and 5) wage inflation through staff hiring and salary increases.
On the wage inflation point, THG employed around 13,000 people at the end of 2021. They added 3,000 employees in 2021, 3,000 in 2020 and 2,000 in 2019, so headcount increase in recent years has been massive. Wage inflation for warehouse workers also increased dramatically in 2021. With revenue growth being softer than budgeted this wage increase was a significant drag on profitability.
There is now a hiring freeze so headcount in 2022 should be flat and perhaps modestly decline through natural attrition.
As for whey protein powder, the cost of this grew around 2.5x in FY21, costing £10s of millions of profit. Year to date, the cost of whey protein powder has fallen by around a third, so what was a headwind should now be a tailwind to profitability.
The weakness of the Japanese Yen was another significant hit to profitability last year. The Yen has weakened further but the move is much lower and, therefore, much less impactful so far this year than it was in 2021.
Consensus forecasts are assuming around 20% revenue growth in 2022. Whilst it's difficult to be too precise on the overall cost base it feels like costs should be close to 2021 levels. That being the case, revenue growth should be a tailwind to profitability so consensus EBITDA of £160 million, flat on 2021s figure, should be well underpinned. Hence the company's update today saying trading in line with expectations. The EBITDA forecast for next year is around £225 million.
The company currently has a market capitalisation of about £1 billion and is debt free. On this basis, the EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.25x FY21, falling to 4.5x FY22. This is exceptionally cheap for a global technology platform. By comparison Wm Morrison supermarkets was acquired by PE for 8.5x EBITDA.
That is your lot.
Steve in Hull, Rock, Goldy, eye of the bull
How many times have a I heard if it goes below this we are doomed.
Yep, its gone below get out quick.
Even worse it has gone up and now I am really worried.
Oh god, no please god no , its back above £1 don't get sucked in you will lose everything.
I am so clever I sold at x............but I live in hell, sorry hull.
Oxymoron, no I am not calling you a moron.
Guys be more subtle for god sake it is so tedious and don't say ignore it because you take it in turns to constantly post rubbish.
Oh and then crow about how investing might not be for people who don't like people posting rubbish.
Get a life, try posting something useful and then throw in how it is going to zero because we all know the share price is not the same as the value of the company.
At least then it would be a better read.
How a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model can grow your beauty brand
Disruptive technologies and the COVID-19 pandemic have accelerated the adoption of online shopping over the past few years, creating new needs and priorities for beauty consumers and brands.
They expect beauty brands to offer consistent and customized communications across multiple channels, and they demand more personal interactions with them.
In response to these emerging consumer expectations and shopping habits, many brands are setting up or expanding their DTC channels to leverage first-party data and create personalized products and experiences, in order to foster a one-to-one relationship with the customer.
In fact, DTC ecommerce sales in the US alone are expected to reach $151.2 billion in 2022, an increase of 16.9% on 2021.
Fill out this form to download the report.
https://lnkd.in/gNAib2hB
This should be down today .? So what has changed?
1, The chairman's purchase has put a floor under the price.
2, There is some good news coming.
3, The shorts are closing.
4,Everyone within reason who was going to sell has sold.
I do not mind which, also strange that Rock, eye of Bull etc are not posting usual rubbish. Perhaps they have been given the day off work.?
Either way a very pleasant surprise.
Have a good day all.
Spot on,
Two very tame stories.
And we will issue staff shares at an inflated price?
Look at the history of some of the people on here and that will tell you what idiots they are.
"The price was always going to drop, I knew it would, I just did not press the button...
Yep, this is going to 50p , 100% sure of that, as it went up 50%.
It went down 5% at the close we are all doomed, whilst the rest of the market had a similar day. Nothing to do with sellers thinking I will wait for the AGM and then sell if there is no news".
Move your time horizon from 3 hours to 3 months might be a sensible idea.
Started buying when price first went to £1.41
Ended up holding more than I could have believed.
Me 138,000 Shares £1.03 Gia, wife 114,000 shares £1.006 Gia
Me pension, 295,000 shares £1.31
Hi all,
What do we think realistically this gets to tomorrow, £1.70? or more.
Or am I totally underestimating what this might do.
Just mindful that when this went to £1.40 thought it was going to £2 and it did not.
Just considering my position as holding more than I am happy with so want to be sensible not exuberant.
Sensible thoughts would be very much appreciated.
Andrew
Yep, put a load of pension money in at £1.40 convinced it had hit the low. Ended up putting ISA and GIA money in at at 90p and £1.035, not as much. Thankfully now up but with a ridiculously large holding. But finding it impossible to sell after the pain of last 3 months.
Hi,
I follow THG on linked in. Thought this might be useful.
An important message from Dominic Rumsey, our Managing Director:
For over two decades, we have been driven to constantly seek out new avenues to enhance the services we provide to help empower businesses around the world.
Our products have evolved over the years to meet the challenging needs of our customers, and today we are excited to announce our brand has also evolved to better communicate the breadth of expertise we represent and the scope of solutions we provide. As of today, we will now officially be known as THG Ingenuity Cloud Services.
Our commitment to our values, our partners and our customers remains the same as we move into the next generation of our brand. We look forward to the next chapter in our relationship with you.
Click the link here to visit our new website: https://bit.ly/3DNVr4n
I chose GameStop because it is up 62% in 5 days.
No other reason.
I think 6 months is a reasonable time period.
Better than every 5 minutes, shock horror it has broken 85, no 76, " we told you so, gloating from people who still live with their mothers" long silence as back to 90 then wow dropped another 5% at 85.5, yep broken 86 oh my god we are doomed.
Funny if people were not losing money listening to some of the trolls on here.
We might want to at least wait for the results to decide.
Oh god broken 85 I must but more ;-) Remortgage the house.