Member Info for BlueBiscuit

Hi all. Whew, it's a lot busier here than last time I looked in !

I wondered if anyone had a view on the prospects for EVR if (worst case) they had to divest themselves from Russia entirely ? Flicking through their 2021 report, I see that Evraz mines ~75% of the iron ore that it consumes (p16), and were these Russian-based mines to close it would presumably have to buy on the open market. At the same time, Russia accounts for about 40% of its global revenues (p37). Waving my hands wildly I can image this could knock, say, 50% off next year's revenues and (really guessing here) 75% off earnings. So worst case, I'd expect a SP around the 150p mark based on pre-invasion numbers.

Are my numbers wildly off ? I appreciate there's a ton of uncertainty here but even so the selling seems rather overdone, to put it mildly.

New poster here, I topped up today. Current prices seem absurdly cheap, no matter what the political risk. Long-term returns stem from dividend yield, earnings growth and multiple expansion. FXPO ticks at least two of those boxes, I don't think I will be unhappy in 5-10 years.

No worries at all, I see how my post might have sounded a bit rude. Good luck with the investment, I think we're ALL pretty clever for buying this stock yesterday with all that "bad" news flying around :)

You completely miss my point, Ossingh. I was referring to the author of the Seeking Alpha piece as a "donut" (I messaged him earlier, and I see that he has since corrected his article). I don't think i'm particularly clever, and I have no evidence to suggest you're a doughnut. Chill dude :)

ah super, thanks GB

Hi again. Does anyone hold EVR in a taxable account ? For various reasons I do, and I'm starting to wonder how to report the demerger to HMRC. I found the following info, which suggests that CGT is only eligible when we finally decide to sell. However, for those of us who will be forced to accept cash in lieu of RASP shares, I assume I'll need to to treat this is a part-disposal of my EVR holdings when the demerger is completed in Nov. Anyone have any different thoughts on this ? Thanks ! https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/capital-gains-manual/cg33900#direct-demergers-cgt-treatment-individuals

I see people like this donut are still misunderstanding the price fall. This is pay-walled, but you can get the gist if you do a screnshot : https://seekingalpha.com/article/4486985-evraz-stock-down-35-percent-on-ukraine-war-fears . Personally, am loving this FUD : it's scaring off cautious investors, allowing us clever people to top up at bargain levels.

You're both making the same mistake I did. Yesterday's "fall" was merely the side effect of a corporate restructuring that was planned months in advance. Shareholders will be compensated accordingly. It had very little to do with the situation in Ukraine (I also hold shares in Ferrexpo and JRS, both of which were down a couple of percent at most).

And keep in mind that nobody knows the true final value of the shares that we've all been assigned, so take the numbers with a large pile of salt. I also found it interesting that today's fall was widely reported as a "plunge" due to escalating Ukraine tensions, which presumably attracted some buyers who thought the fall was wildly overdone (?)

Hi - yes that's my understanding. Friday's close was 445, knocking off the approximate value of the RASP shares gives an adjusted price of 260p on Monday morning (there's some guesswork involved since nobody knows what those 0.4255 shares will actually be worth when they're delivered, especially if you're a GBP investor). But I reckon the market did a pretty good job of guessing the likely value. As a long-time EVR holder, I'll now look forward to my "free" RASP shares in 6 months.

Ahhh, I think I get it. Today's fall must be due to the demerger, makes perfect sense. The final amount isn't known yet, but the market's doing its best to guess the value of RASP shares when November rolls round. So in fact I didn't get whacked 30% as I first thought, I actually made a nice profit. that's good news -- it'll teach me to read the corporate actions more closely !

Thanks GT. I'm slightly puzzled about something else. Obvious there's been a lot of bad news in the press over the weekend, but I also know that the RASP demerger has a record date of Feb 15th. I wonder if that's the reason for the disconnect ? Current s/p of RASP is 452 RUB, or about £4.38. 0.4255 of that amount is £1.86. That's not too far off today's fall. So I'm wondering if the apparent "crash" is just the effect of removing RASP from the market cap. In other words, maybe we actually did get a ~20% rise today, once you factor that out ?

Sorry if this has already been asked, I see some earlier posts on this topic but not sure if there was a conclusion ?

Anyone else thoroughly confused about the reporting of EVR price moves today ? On yahoo I see a large fall followed by a 10% rebound, but on sites like MSN and even google finance I just see a slow march upwards over the past month. MSN even reported that Evraz "helped contain losses for FTSE 100" today ! https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/british-american-tobacco-and-evraz-help-contain-losses-for-ftse-100/ar-AATPZMV . Anyway, I topped up at around 300p but I'm mystified why there seems to be such disagreement about the price of a FTSE 100 stock.

I also got into this stock a few months. A very small position, and TBH i'd pretty much written it off (i'm still 10% down). I'm looking forward to learning what's behind these recent moves.

I retired a couple of months ago and I have 3% in ANIC. It's part of the 15% I keep in moonshot stocks. The rest is mostly in global equities plus some cash, gold and crypto. I absolutely would not risk any more than that : I regard ANIC as a highly speculative "story" stock that could as easily be 2p as 200p.

I requested 20K and got 5