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OK - that's my letters sent against the warrants - 2m shares.
Condolences to all who got stopped out by the drop - it happened to me twice (FUM,VRP) before I learnt that lesson. Like a kick in the gut, but not on the scale of what some families are going through these days, sadly. No comparison. My guess, after the drop has traded, shares are going to be even more firmly held, which can only be good for the SP, long term.
The value is in the ground, so short-term fluctuations in the SP don't bother me. I was one of those who top-sliced at 40, struck lucky with EQT & XTR, and then, feeling a bit pleased with myself, bought back in at 29, before the drop! A useful lesson in hubris!
A former LTH, disgusted by the performance of the BOD, but who was fortunate to get out on a spike, I bought into this again , just prior to suspension, to experience the end-game, hoping for 1p a share with an RTO. Maybe more, since we still have a potential share in Iclaprim after the Hercules debt is paid off.
Actually, MTFB do have an asset - ourselves. The incoming company will want to fundraise (no point in doing an RTO otherwise), so, possible scenario, we get offered shares at a discount in the new company in exchange for our shares. Just a guess.
Form completed & returned to Egremont.
GC has possibly invented a very important weapon in the fight against the virus (and also made the BoD much money). Instead of thanking him they represent him as an somebody that they rent from the local uni on a 1 day/week basis. And they are clearly threatening him with legal action, to keep him quiet. These people are despicable.
Why are the BoD conducting such a massive placing when, by their own statement, they expect to be generating significant revenue by January? Do they not realise that it is their primary responsibility to return a profit for their shareholders when, by tanking the SP, they are achieving precisely the reverse?
IMHO they should listen to the well-founded criticism of Dr Cave, supported, it seems, by a substantial majority on this BB. Instead they clearly they prefer to intimidate us from posting our views. Deplorable!
Should do well in Germany, where they will appreciate the science, but the biggest market may well be in the East - India, for example - where Copper has played an important role in Ayurvedic medicine and other cultures for thousands of years. I know it's largely superstition, but this could be a massive (although somewhat bizarre) selling point!
Never mind your fancy foreign vaccines - as soon as Dr C finds someone to operate his machine, we're going to show Johnny Foreigner how to defeat this evil virus!
A story made for TV...the Lecturer from a Northern Uni who, in between classes, comes up with a brilliant idea for defeating Covid. As played by Albert Finney, perhaps. In B & W, of course. Quintessentially British & great entrepreneurial spirit. Dr C deserves to succeed. I'm in!
So...my understanding.......if Hercules dispose of Iclaprim before any RTO, any profits owing to MTFB would be divvied up amongst existing MTFB shareholders. But any sale happened after an RTO, MTFB shareholders would hold a very small fraction of the shares in the new Co (our shares are basically worthless at present, since MTFB has been robbed out of cash), so would only receive a tiny fraction of any profits from Iclaprim's sale. However, the incoming private Co might be prepared to pay an extra premium for MTFB if it seriously believes that MTFB's residual interest in Iclaprim is likely to generate a small profit for the new Co. Unlikely, IMO.
What is unclear to me, is if MTFB delists, with no RTO. It then reverts to being a private company, which presumably would be wound up. What then happens to any potential profit from the sale of Iclaprim? Presumably just written off.
Spoon-key - thanks for responding to my initial post, & it is very helpful to read a differing view. None of us know really how things will now progress. I can only speak of my own impression, tempered with a very small experience of submitting applications to the DOH for research use of radiopharmaceuticals in humans in the UK.
Very few were successful at the first attempt, & I would have been surprised if OVB, as an ingenue pharma company, had received instant approval with no comeback. It seems perhaps that the delay was not due to bureaucratic inefficiency, as I had foolishly imagined - Minzhdrav seem to have done a proper professional job and the points they have raised will doubtless smooth the passage of submissions to the EU/US regulatory authorities in due course.
But I slightly doubt that OVB will now have to recommence the whole submission process. Minzhdrav will have been primarily concerned to ensure that the product is safe & efficacious, and therefore will have extensively reworked the data from the Phase I-III studies, to ensure that it met their quality standards, necessarily enlisting the help of external experts. It makes no sense to repeat this. Regulatory authorities often require clarification & reassurance, and many points can be dealt with quite quickly. Others of course can be more intractable. But, in the UK at least, one would have a fairly cordial but respectful dialogue with the individuals from the licensing authority at this point, so that the resubmission answered all of their concerns. Honour was then satisfied.
I don't know if things work similarly in Russia, but I would guess that they might.
I used to review papers submitted to a German medical journal, many of which came from eastern Europe. I was impressed by the Russians - their enthusiasm & scientific rigour, working with rather primitive research tools. Good people - great hosts and very open & direct, but their processes were very similar to our own.
So we will have to see, I guess. I would anticipate another RNS, when OVB can see their way more clearly. Their manufacturers do not seem to have completed their portion of the (voluminous ) application with adequate diligence. I wonder if they will change them?
It looks like the MA will be granted when these technical issues have been resolved. Might not take too long.
Minzhdrav are not questioning safety or efficacy - just "certain issues relating to the chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) and labelling sections of the MA submission dossier". Fair enough - Russian authorities are doing their job, & the Company should have attended to these details beforehand. A set-back, but does it justify a 30% drop in SP, for a company whose value is under-written by its investment in POLY? A buying opportunity, IMHO.
Topped up at 147 pre-webinar - bit of a no-brainer since, unlike SKIN, it was always going to be an impressively professional job, & send the SP back up. Certainly lived up to expectations - doubt we'll see 140's again. Steady growth ahead, IMHO, until the big RNS drops.
Professor Stephen Holgate CBE, Medical Research Council Clinical Professor of Immunopharmacology at the University of Southampton and Co-Founder of Synairgen, said: "Recognising that SARS-CoV-2 is known to have evolved to evade the initial antiviral response of the lung, our inhaled treatment of giving high local concentrations of interferon beta, a naturally occurring antiviral protein, restores the lung's ability to neutralise the virus, or any mutation of the virus or co-infection with another respiratory virus such as influenza or RSV, as could be encountered in the winter if there is a resurgence of COVID-19."
So Holgate is basically saying that SNG001 works, as anticipated. This is a pretty major statement on his part, because his position & seniority command respect, and will have influenced many to invest in a company, in which he is a major share-holder. Doctors are not allowed to use their position to ramp shares, and there would be many, both within & outside the medical establishment, who will be after his scalp, if his claim turns out to be spurious......... so he will not have chosen his words lightly (one hopes!).
A shame they didn't recruit more patients to the hospital-based trial. These academics would have well known the difficulty in extracting meaningful data from such a small trial. Almost as though they didn't really care - only 101 patients from 9 major centres during the two peak months of the pandemic is a pitifully weak effort. Trump seems to have dosed thousands of patients with his jungle juice in much the same time, although the results there are totally uninterpretable. My guess is that the hospital trial was never their main interest - more of a distraction, almost. Academics are always going to do their thing, regardless - these are not worldly people, and they can be bloody frustrating to work with. The COPD trial seems closer to their heart, & is probably more important in the longer term - potentially a new treatment for acute exacerbations, which kill thousands every year - and proof that SNG is a broad-spectrum anti-viral agent, all rolled into one. This is what the big investors are staying in for. If it shows genuine benefit, the SP could rocket from this level. If not, Plan B will be the home trials, and I really hope that they are enrolling decent numbers this time, because they're going to need them.
I agree - can't envisage a placing. Not their style. A lot is going to depend on the paper - if it is well received within the scientific community it will add a lot of heft to SNG's progress. But those tricky excess co-morbidities within the placebo group will need to be finessed somehow - they will attract the attention of the reviewers, unfortunately. Would have been better if they had distributed more evenly.
Covid stocks starting to get a bit played out, IMHO. People are learning to cope with it, and looking to move on. But I think things have changed a bit - I could envisage a move towards renewables/cleaner environment/healthy living/home-working type stocks, as the next "wave'.
I was one of the panicky PI's who bailed out. Watched the Trump session with total disbelief - the FDA endorsing a totally unresearched Covid therapy, under political pressure. Shameful! They will have lost standing now within the US medical profession, but it made me realise that it could be a difficult route to market for SNG, if Trump holds the diktat. Plus I think Holgate & Co need to sharpen up - recruiting lamentably small numbers into their clinical trials over extended intervals shows a lack of drive. These are academic medics, remember, trailing clouds of glory, no doubt, but not necessarily given to working to a tight agenda. I bet they drive Marsden up the wall! They should have more people out in the field, recruiting patients & administering the agent. So I came to the realisation that the SP could tank. A sleepless Sunday night & got out @240, leaving just a few. A great shame because this agent has the most promise of all, IMHO. Pure guess, but I would hope for a rally tomorrow, but lack confidence in the COPD results further down the line. However, institutional investors seem still on board, so long term outlook seems reasonable. Defo back in before the home trial comes out - which I think is of most interest to Holgate et al - my guess is that this is where their efforts have been concentrated. GLA. Nil desperandum!
Interesting glaciology in the Kola peninsula - basically the action of the glaciers in multiple Ice Ages scraped away all the surface material, exposing the underlying bed-rock, containing the PGM deposits. Hence open-caste mining.