Member Info for Blakester2

If there is a leadership contest and Wes Streeting has just resigned so watch this space, then surely L &G could drop along with other FS stock? Thoughts ? That’s what I’m waiting for in any case !

It’s gone ex div today !

BP does pay the UK “super tax,” but only on profits from oil and gas extracted in UK waters — not on its global profits, which include Trading profits, refining, petrol stations, and overseas production all generally outside the UK windfall levy. Recent reporting noted that much of BP’s recent profit growth came from trading operations that were not subject to the levy! Hope this helps.

I'm hoping Big Dave will steady the ship, make Diageo leaner, concentrate on performance / improvement, sell off what is not working and concentrate on what is! If this drops again under £14, I'm buying to try and bring my average down to £16! who knows where this will be in 2/3 years, I'm hoping for a big turnaround!

Diageo Sells Cricket Team to Blackstone-Backed Consortium for $1.8 Billion

The consortium buying the business includes Blackstone’s perpetual private equity fund and Germany-based venture-capital company Bolt Ventures

Ah Yes I forgot to mention the black grange bond. Diageo Stock market value today: ~$45B, Break-up value estimate: $60–90B range. Diageo owns some of the most valuable alcohol brands in the world, and these often command higher valuations if sold separately. If enterprise value = $70B, the implied equity price would be roughly:

≈ $23–24 per share. If sold at $90b then a lot higher. Will be very interesting to see what Big Dave has in store! I’ll be riding this wave to the pocket!

The value of the brands are worth way more than $13.7b! If Guinness were spun off or sold analysts estimate the standalone business value could fetch $10/12billion, + they own Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) estimated value $2b , Smirnoff standalone business value $6-10b, Johnnie walker $12-15b, Hennessy $10/15B, Don Julio $5-8b, Moet $6-9b.

These ranges reflects what a buyer might pay for each brand which includes; global brand rights, production and bottling contracts, distribution rights, marketing and ready to drink extension's ie Smirnoff ice.

Diageo owns 200 alcohol brands, 60% of its profits comes from just 5 of them! I think its quite obvious what they need to do!

Thanks for your thoughts, wasn't aware of their commitment to div. Good to know.

Whats people's views on Meg O'Neil and the possibility she reduces dividends as did Sir Dave Lewis did on his arrival with Diageo, not one to put a downer on things, just mindful of possibilities.....I'm heavy into BP, Tullow, Shell, Chevron, Exxon and Diageo and cash!

Bottom Line

Right now, the refinancing:

• Reduces immediate bankruptcy risk

• Buys time

• Does not dilute shareholders

But shareholders are still sitting behind a large debt stack. If business performance improves, equity can benefit significantly. If not, creditors — including Glencore — will ultimately control the outcome!

What the Glencore–Tullow Deal Actually Is

Tullow was facing a large upcoming debt repayment (about $1.28 billion senior secured notes due in May 2026) — and had a tough refinancing environment. To address this, Tullow agreed a refinancing and lock-up transaction with:

• ~66 % of its senior secured noteholders, and

• Glencore Energy UK Ltd (Glencore’s affiliate) 

Under the deal:

1. The existing senior secured debt is released and replaced with new “Extended Notes” maturing in November 2028.

2. Glencore’s own $400 million secured notes facility is written down and transformed into new junior secured notes maturing in May 2030.

3. Tullow also gets a new $100 million super-senior cargo prepayment facility from Glencore, backed by oil cargo security.

4. The refinancing reduces near-term cash interest costs and extends the debt maturity profile.

5. Importantly: existing equity is preserved — no new shares are expected to be issued as part of the deal. 

⸻

📉 Does Glencore Now Control the “Debt Stack”?

This isn’t the classic scenario where a creditor takes over the entire debt stack and means an immediate company takeover. Instead:

• Glencore is now a major creditor, holding newly issued junior debt and providing a super-senior facility — so it’s strategically important in Tullow’s capital structure.

• The deal doesn’t transfer ownership or give Glencore board control by default — Tullow’s equity still belongs to existing shareholders, and the company remains listed on stock exchanges.

• However, if the company later fails to meet its obligations or enters formal restructuring, having a creditor like Glencore in a senior credit position could give it influence over outcomes in a deeper restructuring.

In other words: Glencore has influence through debt but not direct ownership or operational control — at least not yet. 

Me too :-( been averaging down ever since! I'm hoping Diageo as the indirect owner of the Indian Premier League (IPL) cricket team Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), through its controlling stake in the Indian company United Spirits will consider selling its stake in RCB for up to $2 billion!!!!

Surely Diageo must be worth a punt at these levels? They are just above March 2020 levels. I've been building quite a large position here, my 3rd largest holding behind L&G and Prudential. Time will tell i guess!

I totally agree.

Which trading platform / vehicle are you using to short? I sold 70% of my Tui shares recently for profit after being heavily into them after the RI and then averaging down to uncomfortable levels... I'd probably be better at shorting stocks than going long :-)

It worries me that Union Investment offloaded 50% of their holding a few weeks back, why would they do this?

No idea, but we will be finishing in the blue that's for sure....

Level II Console is looking promising. Double the amount of buy orders to sell!

I mentioned before on threads I recently returned from Barbados on a packed flight in and out over Easter. Tui put on 2 flights to Grantley Adams each week. I've just tried booking a flight back this summer and I cannot get a flight from STN or Gatwick until Nov 2023. Furthermore I do not seem to be able to book 4 seats for Easter next year as I get a "Sold Out" message, Interesting!

They already have wound down!

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/DE000TUAG505/