Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Bit of buying going on...
Yes, agree early results are aimed at post deal audience.
Assuming we get a deal there will be a rise un SP, and then another placing.
So this RNS is a pre-placing brochure.
1 share bought at 8:26 - usually sign of imminent RNS.Should be an interesting day!Up to 2.49 as I write
Some chunky buys going through.
Volume was approximately 8 million yesterday, already 6 million today.
Does suggest something is going on...
Someone is confident...
Almost 8 million traded today.
Lets hope that RNS is on it's way!
This 'slip of the tongue' on 28th Feb started the current frenzy and subsequent placing:
https://thenassauguardian.com/2019/02/27/ag-govt-obligated-to-extend-bpc-license/
To quote: "However, Bethel said he is confident that this time the company will drill.
“I have been made aware that they have already commissioned and have an agreement with a major oil company,” Bethel said.
“I cannot say who, but I know who.
“I have every confidence that they will drill…”
Thinking that some weekend traders may start buy soon - 'I wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend' etc
From Dec 2018, the SP had steadily been declining to 1.1p, then suddenly around 12th Feb it started generally moving up on no apparent news, before hitting a high of about 2p on 25th Feb.
There were lots of posts here about a 'pump and dump' going on.
Then on 28th Feb, the Nassau Guardian article is discovered and the share price start to go into overdrive.
Instead of a pump and dump it would appear that some people knew a deal was on the way and started buying in from 12th Feb onwards.
Oh yes, and the share price increased by 200% that day.
Let's say one of the parties that BPC is dealing with wants to get serious - what's going to happen?
Before signing on the dotted line they will want an exclusivity agreement, together with time in the data room to review the seismic data etc. just like the last oil major did.
So I think the next RNS will be
'BPC is pleased to announce that is has entered into an exclusivity agreement with an oil major who has agreed to pay $500,000 for the privilege etc.'
Essentially a re-issue of the RNS from 3rd May 2018.
Groundhog Day cometh!
Will be interesting to see if more buying from other side of pond.
Sells: 7,519,858
Buys: 6,600,904
Gap has been narrowing all day and has gone from almost 50% to ~ 10%.
At current momentum we may even end the day over 4p!
From RNS of 22nd Feb
"The forward programme will include the process for Environmental Authorisation, in accordance with the relevant Act and Regulations, based upon an application already submitted by the Company in April 2018. The Government has advised of the engagement of Black & Veatch, a leading petroleum industry consultant, to assist with this process. Black & Veatch previously advised the Government in the process for the Company's Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), filed in 2012."
Why would the Bahamas government spend money on these guys (who cannot be cheap!) unless something was coming down the tracks?
If a deal was not imminent, they would not be shelling out in this way!
BPC will probably have to go for a 20% free carry.
Last year after accessing the data room they (the company who signed the exclusive agreement) walked away. I've got a pretty good idea who that company was.
They probably thought the licences would not be renewed and they could talk to the government and get 100% control of the project.
Now they can re-open the door (to the data room).
They have a licence to end 2020.
Commitment to drill a well.
Government has hired a leading energy consultancy to work on this.
Never been a better chance for BPC to actually find somebody.
You never know - the person who was looking at the situation may walk back through the door!
Poster whoppy over on ADFN is saying Malcy knows who the oil major is.
After writing the last post I found the following (2011) figures for seismic processing:
https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/1767085/0
"For seismic processing, $800 / sq. mi. for 3D and $400 / mi. for 2D would be ballpark prices."
Stumped now as although we have 11,000 square kilometres, but what percentage of that requires processing?
So Choje may be worked up from a lead to a prospect, but they still have to carry out $350,000 worth of re-processing of existing data.
Any thoughts when either of these could be completed - and are they a necessary prerequisite to a farm in?
Just thought - if they are placing this work with external consultants (assuming they do not employ full time seismic data analysts) then let's say four analysts at $1500 per day = 58 days. Just grasping at straws, I know. Just trying to get some idea of when there will be any farm in news.
No mention of BPC in Malcy's blog today.
Strange - I would have thought 100% in 24 hours would be worth a mention...
So, as I see it, there will first be a period of reprocessing existing data:
"Both the Albian carbonate and Upper Cretaceous sandstone plays are currently being worked up further, both in the Licence and in Global's adjacent Licence PEL0094. Further details will be released when work has been completed."
So when this has been completed GBP will use this to add more credibility to the existence of its prospects, and an oil company (who we hope is waiting in the wings) will then carry out a farm in covering both licence blocks (PEL0029 and PEL0094).
Following the farm in, 3D seismic (funded by the oil major) will be gathered on both blocks and drilling will take place sometime after that.
Presumably they have just only started the reprocessing today (no point starting earlier as there was uncertainty regarding the licence situation), and only after this work will a farm in happen.
Is this a fair assessment of where we are?
If so, has anyone any idea how long this reprocessing will take? Weeks, months?
Also, will the oil major have to wait like everyone else for the 'Data Reprocessing Complete' RNS, or will they have privileged access to it, enabling them to announce a farm in on the same day?
All thoughts welcome
Converts to $50,000, near as.
Just saying.