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I agree this particular transaction was just an individual director buying shares, and 75000 is not a significant number either at the current SP.
There is no tax on buybacks. With divis most people will pay tax.
OK this board is strangely filtering out the following -
less than sign
dollar sign
number sixty
how odd
Meant to say "with ICI4 averaging
I certainly think the last 3 months must have gone very well, with ICI4 averaging 9 Rupee tariff. Should continue going well too, so long as govt does not mess with the tariff while coal price is still higher than historic average.
Due to be released this week based on timing for past 2 years....
Thanks Ginoir. The biggest sell quote I could get was 30,000 @ 18p. I was tempted to hit the sell button but refrained. Perhaps I'll regret the decision not to offload some at 18p tomorrow?
Can anyone explain or guess at what's going on today?
175 trades so far today, mostly a few pence or a couple of pounds. There are a handful over £1K
Obviously the 60% rise in SP is unlikely to be sustained for long on these volumes
3C quarterly so 12C/year, excluding specials. There was a 5C special paid in May
This dropped to 5 to 6p when ICI4 was well over $100 and we had a tariff of about 6 rupee/kwh. Presently we have ICI4 at $50 and a tariff of >9 rupee/kwh
If tariff returned to ~ 6 or 7 rupee/kwh and power stations were forced to operate at ~100% PLF with a $55 coal price I think many would go out of business. That would be in nobody's interest. I think it would be foolish of the govt to reduce the tariff unless they are confident that the coal price will remain under $40 for the foreseeable. Therefore I don't think it's likely to happen so I expect OPG to be profitable in Y/E 24
Cenkos have today released a broker note with some fairly pessimistic assumptions for 2024 -
Revenue £60m
Reduced electricity tariff
Ave coal price $55
PLF 36%
PT loss of £4.1m
If the Indian govt needs power stations to operate at a high PLF they will surely not reduce the tariff while coal price remains above normal historic levels?
I agree this is positive.
The PLF should remain high, India's power demand in May 23 reached the highest level in their history.
India is still forecast to be the fastest growing economy in the world so demand for electricity will increase
Coal prices have greatly reduced this year and are still dropping
India is increasing domestic coal production with the aim of becoming a net exporter, which should in future ensure a plentiful supply of reasonably priced coal
The company has reduced debt
What's not to like?
What's quite interesting from the accounts is that you can see the cost of material consumed as a ratio of revenue has increased significantly in the last quarter as they've ramped up generation. Typically it's been 75% ish whereas last quarter it's jumped up to 86%. The reason I assume is the higher % of relatively expensive imported coal they've consumed vs cheaper domestic coal of which there is only a limited supply. With imported coal now significantly cheaper than it has been throughout the last quarter I cannot wait to see the results for the the next couple of quarters.
Thanks for posting the link to the accounts. Can someone help me out here as I'm struggling to see the £7m PBT for the last quarter.
The accounts are in Laikhs and I understand one Laikh is 100,000 Rupees or circa £1K
So revenue from operations 43,635 Laikh or about £43m
Profit before exceptional items and tax 788.92 Laikh or about £788K ?
Do we know if OPG fix their coal prices in advance or whether they just pay the current rate at the time the coal is shipped?
I'd like to hold all for 30p+ but I may bottle it and sell about 40% or so of my holding to get my money back once it hit's 20p. My average is currently 8p so even selling at 20p gives 150% profit.
I can still keep the bulk of my shares and hold out for 30p+ in the knowledge that they are free shares.
Maybe break through the 10p barrier this week, last time we saw >10p was before the war started. I see no reason why this shouldn't carry on all the way up to 20p and beyond if coal stays at around $60 or less
Looking at numbers on Stocko it's still trading at only 20% of the 45p/share book value.
Pre-covid, their annual revenue was around £140m and this year it's forecast to be around £53m, despite the higher tariff, due to reduced PLF. Now we just need to wait for them to return to pre-covid levels of generation, with the new tariff, a sensible coal price and minimal debt this really will be a cash cow.
At current POG and exchange rate I estimated "ball park" at between 10,000 and 12,000 oz/year