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I wouldnt say so, the lenders are very likely to continue to roll the debt given the cash generative, low leverage nature of UKW.

£200mm isnt a lot given we generate £500-600mm a year.

NVIDA casually committing to buying back $80bn in shares. 30x our current GBP market cap. Is our access to generating power really that worthless to the world? The spread between those two data points doesnt make sense to me whatsoever. Ok a lot of other factors to consider, but power is essentail and is also a key component of how Nivida can make so much money (and its counterparts). The money is out there, it just doesnt look at renewables apparently.

They should be doing a lot more of this as a sign of confidence, and definitely in more than £50k.

Figured could be on holiday given time of year but I jsut thought rather amusing from the board in general how active it was to then getting the update and acitivty dying. Generally all round its a good report, we couldnt have asked for too much more other than back end power prices going up.

We got an important update and no word from Bunser, thats the biggest surprise to me here!

At 100p the market cap is approx £2.15bn. £131mm cash generation represents 6% of MC. If we maintain guidnece of £600mm then we have an asset here that produces 28% of its MC in cash per year.

Wanted to circle back to this post, some of the work off-centre and some of it was right but importantly key learnings about UKW to takeaway nonetheless.

Before we hit the post in detail thought, couple of thoughts here on the todays NAV.

1. Change in direction of NAV adjustments, even if reasonably small and hampered by the CPS scheme (which market can look through as a one-off maybe). 2.8p NAV increase if adjusting for it as a one-off or still a 0.7p increase with it included. Now one data point does not make a trend however I would argue a key outcome for the business / shares was to stop NAV errosion. This should help to reduce "NAV Distrust" as we find a steady state for the value of the assets.

2. on a Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026 basis for net cash generation we were £118mm vd £131mm showing the increased wind generation.

3. They appear to have purposefully left "hope" alive for continued success into the Q2 release. "Strong Q1 generation and higher power prices will flow into Q2 net cash generation".

4. No mention of share buyback yet or any form of use of the increased cash generation. This would have been a meterial kicker for the shareprice I believe. Having more consistency / certainty in the buybacks would be confidence boosting.

Ok so my original analysis - overestimated the NAV increase even when adjusting for the unforseen CPS movement. This mostly came down to power price capture. NAV only increased by 1.2p due to power prices and this is largely attributable to the fact the consultants have lowered the back end of the curve and maybe some higher discoutning due to volaitlity. However it remains to be seen if these long term forecasts of the consultants will be materialised or if the curve will just keep rolling up into the shorter dated pricing. This then becomes a hold and wait approach as the "miss-pricing" of the back of the curve is realised in cash generation by the company only when it rolls into <1year pricing.

So, I overestimated the impact of higher power prices due to assuming the back of the power curve would lift (instead we have lowered it).

However I underestimated the net cash generation impact from increased wind. I priced +2-3p for NAV and net cash generation was +6p.

Combined together we got 7.2p from power prices and wind generation vs 2.9p in Q12025 and 1.3p 4Q2025, so we get some illustration of what the embedded call option is worth for UKW.

Inflation came in slightly ahead of my expectations 3p vs my 1-2p and discounting towards the lower end of my expectations. Both of which we reasonably close and the misses are in favour of the shareprice.

We continue to learn / reiterate how important the back end of the power curve is for UKW and the largest uptick to sustrained rallies appears to need a lift in the back end of the power price curve. However the big win is of course the real net cash generation and this can be used for many positive reasons going forward, ideally some buyba

The ii interview correctly ended asking Matt if he had skin in the game.

Does anyone have accurate figures for how many shares the managers have?

A real vote of confidence would be to see them allocate a good amount at these levels.. I am somewhat surprised they havent already. Maybe they feel they are already algined enough for the reasons he said in the interview but as a sign of confidence it would be good.

Gosh hard up great spot. Apologies all I was in auto pilot this morning and had a hard coded old NAV figure.

It’s beeen a long week ha.

But yes you are right with you corrected number, thank you

UKW is currently finding itself in the sweet spot of that embedded call option I drummed on about. I have done some analysis around this and hopefully rings true. Long story short, I get to the £80-100mm increased revenue due to the combination of factors and not solely just cause prices are up. I have also assumed lower capture prices due to large amounts of wind power hitting the grid at the same time and de-pressing intra-day pricing.

We should also keep in mind, the higher rates path is counterbalancing NAV uplifts with larger discoutning.

Please all DYOR etc but this is what my expectations are for the upcoming anncoument.

approx NAV inpact per share:

a.Power Price exposure +8-12p (6-8p sensitivity per £10/MWh increase)

b.Increased wind production vs expectations +2-3p

c. Increased CPI linked revenues +1-2p

d.Negative sensitivity to higher discount curve -4 to -7p (every 50bps increase negative 8-12% NAV sensitivity)

a somewhat reasonable expectation (ha and just watch the quarterly update prove me wrong) could be +7-10p on NAV (161 to 164p)

Then my expectation would be this makes buybacks hard to resist by managment so we get a slightly increased buyback programme due to extra cash + discount to NAV.

Be interesting if mmgt have used this period to lock in more hedges at all, not sure on that myself but would just be a conversion of the call option into guarenteed revenues and rolls the call option further down the curve.

Please pick this apart with sensible thought process / research cause it does feel like the market is missing value here vs risk off sentiment.

Technially not a pretty picture again, needs to hold above previous lows but ideally regain above 50 and 100d MA

In late April, so not overly long to wait for next quarterly update

Surely you could have picked renewable wind energy as your fuel of choice!

Looks like overall risk off sentiment is forcing a re--test of the breakout level for ukw. Need to see this hold on good volume support.

You are absolutely mental haha (in a good way)

one minute you cant understand why it hasnt just re-rated to 110p then you start to get the move you want (and expect) and its absoluely mental ????

We finally broke the resistance that has been discussed by a couple here, this is what tends to happen. Now we need to see it hold or re-test and hold or for some news to break.

But dont be surprised by the move youve been expecting to happen for so long.

Happy Birthday to Bunsen I guess? haha

Yes you seem well researched from your posts. Its a great value play in my opinion with strong asymetric risk profile towards returns. Doesnt make them gauranteed or that they turn up tomorrow, if that was the case, these opportunities would never exist.

Recently I have been taking the dividends to expand the metals and minerals part of the portfolio, luck and timing more than anything it has helped but we are ever increasingly moving towards a resoruce and energy driven world.

Its almost like youve invested in a high yielding value stock expecting it ot trade like bitcoin.

I do admire your persistant euphoria on slightly green days, strong consistency.

I do not mean this as a dig, but out of curiousity, did you make a decent chunk of your wealth from crypto ?

If you subscribe to the view that stocks still behave in that fashion, one could easily argue that we are much closer on understanding fair value of companies and importantly on understand market flows on day-by-day basis. Snp has positive drift for example, that is statistically significant and relevant and reduces random walk.

TA is a good tool to understnad the behaviours of buyers and sellers, work on the assumption of all known infomation is in the price but as you allude to with stocks, it tends to be signifincantly more realiable on FX and Commods.

One could certainly question the random walk nature of stocks in the modern world. That is highly debatable. There is signficantly high levels of knwon infomation regarding flows these days vs when a lot of origiinal schools of thought started studyingg markets seriously. TA has also devleoped and expanded signficantly since too, understanding volume analysis has grown in importance for example, and we have the avaliability of level 3 data to understand bids hit vs offers lifted on that volume.

Have you ever studied techncial analysis ? I dont think there are many charts out there with a more defined downtrend that UKW on the daily chart. You really should define what time line you are looking at if you are going to talk of technicals. Downtrendd capped prcie earlier in march at 96.25, comes in today at 96.11. We are also being capped by the 50 daily MA at 96.62 today which we have largely been below since Aug 2025.

There is a small gap the market may wish to close between 97.2 and 97.6 but likely to do with ex--div so unsure how true that theory holds in equities (i am a commods trader).

strong polarity resistance at 100.15p with 100 daily MA at 99p. Aprrox 100p also ties in with the COVID low from Mar 2020.

There is no volume support on up days to suggest strength is building and RSI is not oversold on the daily. All MA's are downward sloping with their gradients also downward sloping. The 8DMA is starting to show signs of upward sloping however which will help to turn this into an accumulation zone.

We did also post a postive divergence between price and RSI on 19th Feb follwoed by a confirmation candle 20th Feb which put in the low of the previous wave lower. This is the most promosing sign I can see of a bottom in price forming. We want to see some accumulation between 94/96 to form a real bottoming pattern to give strength to break above the 50dma and push to test 100p and then again need to see the bulls winning against the profit takers or bears to then push on to the 200dma.

Yep - very much rang of the "get bitcoin in your title" and more recent "get AI in your title" approach by Greencoat and also the the share price reaction chimed those bells too. Its a great source of revenue and long term contracts if we can get it. Its just is renewable reliable enough for them?