Member Info for artrader

how can There be changed to Their ..... even a computer dosent' know the queens English

The basket price has fallen for a long time so make no mistake the reason why the SP is still declining is due to the drop of the basket from $2790 to $2300 which means a double hit , sales in the prior months are subject to a change in there price although Rhodium hasn't moved off the 14000 spot but the other PGMS have so for Q2 Im guessing $3m net profit ....... Once upon time that was a brilliant return .... one day after chasing rainbows everyone will know the value of this share. Im going all in at .84 to buy

Nice link Velo However there are too many factors to suggest the 10% sales where nothing but a one-off caused by the shortage of petrol cars because of the catalytic shortage. The petrol crisis caused a surge in EV sales in September but the biggest reason was the tax incentives to businesses. You could buy an electric car for say £60k and use the full cost to claim against tax, saving £20k in taxes and say £10k on the saving of fuel costs so that’s a saving of £30k. What a lot of businesses caught onto was that they didn’t even need to pay for the car but instead borrowed the money at say 7% costing £4.2k. Total savings on one car £25.8k but why stop there a friend of mine bought 5 and one was never ever used.
The incentives also included grants for free chargers .
Christmas is over now for many as the scheme has now finished .

Reading the RNS today from HUR it also announced a lower target of gold production AND a higher AISC. Then it dawned on me what was missing from Eric’s statement the smoking gun AISC.

Altus released a late RNS yesterday regarding an acquisition of Royalties quote Newcrest Mining Ltd and certain of its group companies (together "Newcrest") (the "Acquisition"). The portfolio consists of royalties on two producing gold mines, one near-production gold mine as well as up to 21 near-term development and exploration stage projects. Twenty-three of the Royalty projects are located in Australia“
Is this good for ALS and Newcrest and does it involve GGP?
I’m invested in ALS and GGP so have I gained on one hand and lost on the other?

Don’t take an advertisers word for anything It ain’t boom time yet actually palladium wad down 4% today …. But it will be boom time but not yet. In the meantime dividends will still be paid at current levels. Don’t sound the charge too early You’ll know when to hit the bugle once this retreat turns into attack, anyone not paying the current price for PGMs will be swallowed. No payee no PGMsee our price or no goodies. It’s coming

maybe the forward looking news isn't exactly forthcoming .......... ''The next royalty payment is expected as soon as November 2021''

I think there is a very simple explanation why the SP isn't up taking aside the power of the Dollar, mudslides, viruses, lack of machinery and parts and a temporary closure and that is the metals.
per TE website
Platinum futures traded around $940 per troy ounce in the second week of December, getting close to a near 2-month low of $927.7 early in the month, as the dollar remains strong and investors worry demand would lower even further amid persistent supply constraints including shortage of semiconductors. Volkswagon AG’s Americas chief forecasts the global chip shortage lasting into the third quarter of next year. Car sales in China fell for a sixth consecutive month in October, slumping 9.4% from a year earlier, as supply remains limited.

Rhodium has been trading below $15,000 per troy ounce since mid-September, more than 50% down since touching an all-time high of $29,800 in late March on slower demand from the automotive industry. Global carmakers have either slowed production levels or temporarily shut down plants due to intense supply bottlenecks, namely a worldwide shortage of semiconductor chips. Heraeus Precious Metals, one of the world’s largest platinum group metal refiners, expects these chip shortages to potentially last until 2Q 2022.

Palladium futures traded below $1900 an ounce, not far from 20-month lows reached on November 30th, and defying overall strength in the commodities sector amid lower demand from the auto industry, which accounts for around 80% of palladium total demand due to global chip shortages. Increasing use of platinum, a cheaper substitute of palladium in manufacturing electrolytic converters, have also limited further demand for the metal.

.....I'm thinking of hibernating

Closing shorts

I was thinking about reinvesting at this level for a second or two ......then I remembered why I sold out. Was it the retail offer at 16.5p which allowed Barrick to sell off ? Was it the .001p dividend? Was it the failed IPO for Singida? or maybe the massive Loss on selling gold forward at $1200/oz? or perhaps the VAT problem or was it buying an old mine somewhere in the distant mountains of Kenya from Barrick who would never sell an asset of great potential after it had explored the life out of it? OR maybe the Tanzanian Government wanting 16% of the mines? and extra Royalties....... No it was when I saw the Colonel had sold out and if he is out I'm not in

Velo - Well done on the basket price driven forecast, but its also about quantities and to finish the story you should look at 4E or 6E quarterly quantities over the same period. I quickly totted up the 6E quantities per quarter taking an average for each year missing out the lockdown quarter Q4 2020.
2019 24.28K OZs 2020 26.53K OZs 2021 23.5K OZs 2022 20.6k OZs
So far this year its down by 15% but if you look at the last 5 quarters 24.3k 24.9k 23.6k 21.2k 20.4k its a pattern that has to be halted especially as the 2nd quarter basket price is somewhere around $2400 and although its a healthy profit it doesn't look good for visionary's. Bearing in mind 47% of unsettled sales for the 1st quarter were based on an average basket price of $2897 so will have to be adjusted to the current level of approx $2400.
The 2nd Quarter will give a guide to quantities if the operation at Lesedi has been ramped up but it won't be before Q3 before it can be fully analysed.
There is so much to look forward to next year but at the moment the sp is pegged.

Top tiger … receivables that lag behind are all subject to change as I am sure you are fully aware (or not) 47m of sales are subject to forward price conditions …. Fair enough when the price is going up but you try to renegotiate when prices are decreasing by 50% …. I hear buyers saying but I bought in good faith at 27000 but is now 14000 …. and falling and we had an open deal remember? I’ll pay the going price when I actually pay by whilst the price is going down … I won’t pay until I want to (when the price starts to rise) maybe SLP need to sell at their price or not at all ….. ok when it’s going up but disaster when it’s falling

Todays prices RHODIUM USD/OZ 14200 on Metals Daily - the average price for 1st quarter was usd/oz 17999
The basket price for 1st quarter was $2900 and for the 2nd quarter to date on average it is $2444 and based upon todays value it is $2350. I'm just making logic of the SP and what to look out for in terms of future value today there's a legitimate reason for the low sp mixed with actual prices of PGMs the lower production and outside effects. If 129 was the value during $3700 average basket prices of 2021 then 84p should be a fair value today.

AVERAGE PRICES 1st Q v 2nd Q to date PT 1031 v 1006 rh 17299 v 14010 PD 2481 v 1938 ir 5314 Ru 724 v 609
TODAYS PRICES PT 952 RH 13,950 PD 1752 ir 4150 Ru 580
taken from Matthey

PGMs BASKET PRICE FELL BY 29% in the last quarters figures - here's all the figures JULY 2020- SEPT 2021
1Q 2021 2Q 2021 3Q 2021 4Q 2021 1Q 2022
Feeds in tonnes 680,662 740,783 644,087 635,153 600,000
PGMs in ounces 24,300 24,900 23,600 21,200 20,397
Basket price $2,834 $3,323 $4,576 $4,059 $2,897
Net Revenue $millions $41.5 $43.7 $74.2 $48.4 $29.8

Velo Thanks for your interpretation of the way things are going albeit through the use of somewhat rosy figure work. The falling price of PGMs at the moment is a double edge sword as you know by last quarters price adjustment to debtors and unfortunately there's more to follow.
Whilst the price of the PGMs basket is falling it not only means that the current profit is falling it also means that past sales will receive a credit on their invoice (difference between todays price and their provisional price at the time of order/delivery).
This is the bit in the financial statement:
Commodity price risk refers to the risk of changes in fair value or cash flows of financial instruments as a result of changes in commodity prices.
It is applicable to the largest debtor of the Group. In terms of the agreement between the Group and the debtor, the commodity prices used in the calculation of the payment are based on the prices over the period following delivery, leaving the Group exposed to the commodity price fluctuations until the price is fixed. The subsequent remeasurement of the receivable every month following the month of delivery until the price is fixed, is recognised in other income, refer note 9.
unquote
The balance on the 2021 year end was $47m and a provision of 10% was mentioned as a risk but looking the basket prices from July 2020 to Sept 2021 it shows why 2021 was such a good result with increasing prices there was always a higher profit except in the 4th Quarter and THEN the dramatic change seen in the 1st quarter of 2022 - save you looking them up 1st 2021 $2834, 2nd $3323, 3rd $4576, 4th $4059, 1st 2022 $2897 - so you see a worrying downturn in the 1st quarter is carrying on into the 2nd quarter. Net revenue was still $29.8 million. However if the basket price in the 2nd quarter continues to fall say to BELOW THE CURRENT APPROX $2400 then revenues will need to be adjusted downwards again.
It wouldn't be so bad if production was up but it is also on a falling trend since April 2018 and here's the figures in thousands of oz up until Sept 2021 25.7, 20, 22.2, 29.2, 27.7, 25.4, 26.58, 12.51(covid lockdown), 24.3, 24.9, 23.6, 21.2, 20.40
This three way hit is whats keeping the SP down: credit notes, falling prices and lower production. The management are ramping up production again but can't yet do anything about the price of PGM's but the ramping up has hit a Covid uncertainty threat so thats why the volatility in SP in the last few days. I am invested here and have had a nice profit over the years including dividend and am not worried about the future I'm just pointing out why I think the SP is lower today.

I couldn’t believe reading this and putting all I’ve researched into doubt, someone tell me this is just another headline seeker.
Impala Platinum Is Starting To Look Like A Value Trap And I'm Turning Bearish
Sep. 16, 2021 9:01 AMImpala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)SBSW, ZMPLF, TSLA
Summary

The company booked revenues of $8.49 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $4.01 billion in FY21, up by 86% and 109% YOY, respectively.
However, rhodium and palladium accounted for 72% of Impala Platinum’s sales and the prices of the two metals are crashing.
There is likely more pain ahead as there is no end in sight for the global chip shortage and BEV sales are expected to double in 2021.
I doubt rhodium and palladium demand and prices will recover and now I’m bearish on Impala Platinum.

The trouble is there's no good news coming out of S Africa and there's also been a disaster at one of Impala's mines in Rustenburg due to mudslides
quote news24.com Five mineworkers were missing on Sunday following a mudslide at a South African platinum mine northwest of Johannesburg, operator Impala Platinum (Implats) announced.

Seven employees were working at the bottom of a shaft at the mine in Rustenburg, "when the area became inundated as a result of a mud rush," Implats said in a statement.

COVID variant wipes £72billion off London shares … African miners are in the firing line. … but SLP have a Teflon coat? Let them drive this one back down to 66p and Im selling the house (again) did it once and it worked.

I ve seen nothing but good news here copper prices up again, Gold found everywhere and now a deal in Morocco ..... is this just a load of waffle and spin or is this the best thing ever?