Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Hey Snooz is there a problem with getting spot price into the NAV spreadsheet ? Not loading that field whenver I open the spreadsheet. Making do with yellowcakeplc.com implied U price for now.
A444
Have you looked at the most recent Empress update?
https://empressroyalty.com/site/assets/files/6340/empr-q2-2023-mda.pdf
-Seems they are at c70kg (2260 troy oz) per month in June and c 340kg for H1.
"On May 2, 2023, the Company announced, based on reports provided by MMP, that MMP has continued to
de-risk the mine and plant with production increasing month over month, including through the rainy season
in the fourth quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023. Gross mine production has grown from 460 oz in July
2022 to 2,260 oz in June 2023, an increase of 390%. MMP reports the plant is largely considered completed
and the open pit operation continues to be de-risked. Grade control efforts are leading to a stable feed grade
and the plant is averaging a metallurgical recovery of 89% in June 2023 as compared to 85% in the second
half of 2022 as reported by MMP. Current throughput and grade provide further room for material growth
in production for the longer-term, and as such, management expects continued increases in production,
revenue, and revenue attributable to the royalty"
Also H1 royalty earned was c$700k so @ 3.375% and assumed $1900 per oz => c340kg by my reckoning for H1 production.
£7 => spot U of c$85 and low discount to NAV assuming other factors remain as is - inventory, cash and fx.
Could it go that far that fast ?
Sput raised $15m so now has $25m. No lbs stacked.
6300/6400
YCA 5.5% discount to NAV based on last night close. Chance to gap up on the open?
Intriguing... sput had 150k lbs it could have bought with cash already in hand before today's ATM so could well be or nervous utes?
Any hope UK MMs will have missed it and open YCA tomorrow at today's close so can get some more ... can but hope
Seems SPUT up for a race with spot -
now at 21.16
U.UN Appears to be holding above the ATM trigger and volume quite deccent (500k at 17.00 UK)
Will be interesting to see how much they raise and any actoin on stacking.
I was about to sell a YCA trading position but held fire to see what tomorrow brings.
U.UN hit the trigger point of 20.96
Https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ucGxvFN4SaYGaDqkcFA-Rjj1s-4TqmYV/view?usp=drivesdk
WNA report
Excellent point on incentive for what is within their control.
I bought some back yesterday at the close just below 470
Thanks for adding the yca implied U price comparative to the NAV spreadsheet tracker.
I've asked the company for any reasons they're aware of for the vote on resolution 1 and any actions they will take. Keep you posted.
I trimmed some this morning too.
There seems to be some panic over Cameco production so I kept most of mine in hope of upward pressure on spot U.
Currently c5% discount to NAV and evaluated using spot not futures.
Snooz spreadsheet gives realtime (ish) view of discount
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1SdQ0pXhW2KJ_PJoiJ3w97tzVz1fGcupAU9bfpTJkOHw/htmlview#gid=0
Also company also publish view of premium/ discount on home page - implied U price versus spot U price
https://www.yellowcakeplc.com/
c20% discount was some time ago from my records 25 , 26 April 23 when spot was 53.38. One month later spot was up a dollar and discount closed to c12% share price moved from 359 to 399. Nav per share from 445 to 454.
15% for a while in early July this year when spot was 58.25.
Certainly trading oops but hard to discern the patterns.
Given slight dip yesterday snooz your assessment may well be correct. Interesting to see if more demand after Labour Day.
This tweet was interesting looking at physical U behaviour in last spike
https://twitter.com/ValueSituations/status/1697588353351229684?t=4x718R-ycnqEt-TND9S9TQ&s=19
Will sput add some rocket fuel?
Getting close
https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1696910982231273617?t=9oZuZTwnD294Nh50LWQBtQ&s=19
Interesting approach which means you are scaling in at greater discount and scaling out at lower discount. I'll give it some thought and maybe model then trial that approach. Thanks.
I trimmed some at close today. Mainly as sput can't (yet) get to premium and start buying.
I m still trading the 10% to 5% discount to NAV range but at some time it'll close/breach the NAV gap. There's a sweet spot to exit (temporarily) before the next raise but mighty hard to predict it.
Snooz if you don't mind me asking.... Your buy trigger was 10% discount to NAV, and when spot was on the up, what's your exit trigger?