Member Info for Ambiguity

Whilst we wait another year on the crossroads of fortune...which seems to me is actually be a roundabout! Could someone inform me if an AGM is likely to take place in the next couple of months?, if the EOY results are not released and the shares still suspended.

As an aside, I found this article around Kaz mineral exploration interesting, and thinking that perhaps mineral opportunities offer more potential riches, whilst I take more paracetamol, travelling around the wheel of fortune.

https://www.mining.com/ground-view-kazakhstan-brezhnevs-needles/

If there is any strategy to the recent announcements, I hope we get a tangable, positive update before the shares go into suspension

If I recall correctly Casp should be receiving over 0.4 million dollars per month starting March 26 for the next 12 months, this should hopefully pay for the new mining equipment!

Scribbled down

34k at 2,230 running till April 25

To summarise

No confidence in senior mgt.

Get Korussa up into commercial production.

Sale of the business.

The sale of BNG will wrap up by the end of next month. All the other events expected by the end of Q4, as outlined in the Annual Report --- should they come to frutition, then it will provide clearer evidence of how the business is moving forward can offset the income stream loss that effectively had kept Casper alive and forfil its license obligations. These are now more or less complete so the focus can move exploiting the higher potential resources and not the limited potential of the BNG shallow structure. They now have the luxury of income streams through drilling on sea and land and trading, while still going for the big value tickets of the deeps and the potential of the new purchases. They just need to deliver.........

Agree Saints - by my calculations BNG is being sold at 3pence a share, based on the zeus capital report figures. This is in line with 3.1p per share valuation of BNG. A rightfully distrusting market sees the rest of the company valued at 1p per share is currently!! . Patience required, lets see what Casper deliver in the next 4 months, then perhaps the zeus fair valuation may be alot more accurate.

While we hopefully wait for some transformational news that will propel the share price forward. I, like others conjure up potential scenarios of what this will look like, fed by the all the speculation that this company enjoys. This does wonders for the imagination, but currently little for my wallet!! However I do take comfort in the reality, that even without all this potential, Casper is probably more profitable than it has ever been. Oil production is at its highest all year, and profitability of domestic sales via trading have made a big difference. CE is bringing in 0.15 million dollars a day.... Living the dream.. and thanks to those posters who share their time and effort in research.

Looking at todays 2023 accounts, oil trading is already playing a large and valuable role for the business. Their conservative and low risk strategy for 2023 resulted in a profit of around $6.25 per barrel of oil sold, assuming all domestic oil went through their own traders. ( 2.2 million on 352k barrels). No wonder they are so pleased with it. Wonder what value can be ascribed to this division of Casp, and what are the future developments of the trading division? Perhaps a future broker note will shed some more light. Unlike all the other exciting things in the pot, this is delivering already.

Still here and hopefully wiser!! In terms of the MJF valuation, we also should consider the broker note valuation was prior to Casp attaining an oil trading licence. This was intimated as being a probable driver for purchasing the shallows. So it is more likely the broker note valuation isn't so far fetched.

The latest operational update has to go down as one of the poorest in terms of details based on what was expected that has ever been written. I hope that many of the gaps will be filled within the release later this month.

A couple of points of detail which perhaps come with a pinch of bias, is hopefully work on the Well 142 has been completed and so will be producing again. If not, the fact that they have moved the drilling team back to 802 suggests that completing 802 is more important than a key Well producing again, at a time when production is disappointingly low.

The update suggests a maximum of two months to complete 802... I know Caspian timescales, but the fact that an end date given suggests news before mid August.

The statement that they are receiving approx the same price from the local refineries as the current international price WITHOUT the urals discount is good news.

With no detail, how can you really make any proper assessment of what is going on. As others have pointed out, this has the hallmarks of an announcement that was forced upon the company, and not a planned update.

The share price drop is surprising but not unexpected. Too much speculation and hype which has now been deflated as quickly as it was pumped.
From my point of view, I am obviously hoping for a commercial success with 802, and nothing that has been stated by the company has changed my understanding / belief. Should 802 not be commercial, my expectations will change, but as so many people have pointed out, this is not a one trick pony, though the share price movement suggest that we probably have a busted flush.

Being a relatively recent investor in Casp, perhaps my perspective is slightly different to LTH holders. For me the regular dividend puts a line in the sand, so to speak.
Recent developments and actions mean that the company is profitable, with exploration success no longer as urgent for the company with deep well costs now effectively payed for.
Going forward - all the lessons learned from past drilling should mean that they have the best chance ever to get a deep well/wells flowing commercially in 2023.
Whilst they are paying regular dividends, I don't see the need to rush things, frustrating as it is when we all want confirmation of the upside potential realised.
The opportunity for share price growth is excellent, as the more knowledgeable posters have mentioned and explained.
The geopolitical risk will always have a major impact, this is now mitigated to some degree by potentially an inflation busting dividend return.
Hopefully 2023 will put Casp on the radar of new investors, and even stale holders of the past will revisit.
With the new oil trading company starting up now , any positive impact on oil prices received can only reinforce the ability to pay monthly dividends.
I appreciate history tells you that unexpected things are likely to happen with this company, but I firmly believe it is now better placed than ever to reward investors going forward.

I am of the view that CE is more likely to be sold rather than chartered for exploration drilling. Should any major oil exploration project in the Caspian sea shallows take place, then wouldn't they be better off buying the barge outright as I don't believe the cost to purchase would be much different than a years rental. To me, it makes no sense to keeping the barge. If they could realise something close to the original 25 million dollar cost of purchase' then that would be a good outcome for the shareholders, and support future activities and dividend payments that fit in with the strategy - as currently outlined!!

Prefer your figures KK, but realise with this company , best tone down optimism, as company has shot itself in the feet too many times in the past. Though I do think higher prices for their oil, should at least lead to increases in the monthly dividend even at the current production levels.

Just one other benefit coming soon - casp own oil trading in 6 weeks time, with expected 15-30% increase in price, based on prices given in last operational update.

Perhaps If oil traders pay for oil supplied for export after 60 days, it results in a delay before accounts can be signed off. Hence the end of Sept publication.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/090522-feature-kazakh-origin-urals-gains-popularity-among-med-refiners-after-rebranding
This is a protected sight but gives you time to read it before locking you out. Effectively saying KEBCO shipment are accepted and in demand from European refiners have been at premium to Urals but slight discount to Brent - includes oil shipped from Baltic ports.

Not sure if this has been posted, but gives good overview, and supports view that CPC oil is only a dollar below Brent. There is nothing in the report to suggest that the discount via alternative routes through Russia attract a bigger discount, it also identifies the companies marketing KEBCO oil sent through the pipeline that Casp uses.
I think they more knowledgeable posters may be able to decipher other useful pieces of info.
https://www.energyintel.com/download?issueId=00000182-8944-d82e-a5e2-b9e4220b0013

Agreed - but it does at least suggest that KEBCO oil is achieving prices approaching Brent. Why would this not apply to other transport routes through Russia?

Having read the article below, it suggests to me that KEBCO oil is trading at one dollar below Brent Crude. Is my understanding correct ? This is the first time I have seen anything confirming the KEBCO oil price. Hopefully this will also apply to Casper Oil.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/potential-disruptions-to-kazmunaygass-russian-exports-will-pressure-credit-metrics/