Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Whilst I think MAPA will invariably add a few pence, perhaps several, to the share price I consider it as a given, it's just when rather than if. The thing that interests me is sales as we have a very accurate idea of what the profit will be per ton sold - they sell it for $55 and it costs $5.7 ton so $50 profit per ton. Therefore 100kt of their 325kt capacity would amount to $5 million profit. Ignoring overhead, which isn't that much, and applying the industry standard P/E of 26.75 and you reach a valuation of $133.75 million. Being ultra conservative we could use a P/E of 10 and you still reach $50 million. With 131,838,589 shares in issue we are currently valued at �28 million or $37 million. The market always looks forward so if KPfertil looks to be making rapid progress in sales then the market will be pricing in higher expected sales and a higher P/E than 10 given the spate capacity and resource base HMI has. If they can get another sales contract quicker and demonstrate that interest in KPfertil is serious and increasing as word gets around then I don't see why valuations in the short term couldn't be in the order of $75 million and significantly more in the mid/long term. For me though, it's all down to sales.
Agree with your observations about bickering. For crying out loud use the filter and don't feed the bloody trolls. It's not hard. I don't see them, only the stupid responses. Going to start filtering them soon.
Except industry average P/E is 26.75. Makes for even better numbers! https://twitter.com/davidburton1971/status/998874220632342529?s=21
Bare in mind that sales are at the mine gate so Harvest don't pick up any transport costs - if they go up that impacts the customer as it would equally for any fertiliser the customer was to buy, more so if the fertiliser had to travel longer distances, which KPfertil doesn't. Have a listen to Mark here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkptBfYVGYg
The transport problems in Brazil could be a big plus for us. Rather than having to import fertiliser and transport it across the country, what if you could buy it locally and save a fortune as well as hassle in transportation costs. Throw in the govt backing to reduce imports of fertiliser, the fact that it's also cheaper then the decision becomes more compelling. Whatever happens, coffee needs to be grown and it needs fertiliser to do that. Win win for Harvest I'd say. I remember at the London investor show Mark Heyhoe mentioning that one farmer who had initially ordered 20 tons of KPfertil came back shortly after and ordered another 120 tons stating that given their proximity as well as the cost it was a 'no-brainer' for him. I'm sure there will be plenty of others like him.
Looks like Veloso has slightly more acreage than I first thought; Fazenda Berrador (400 hectares [ha]), Fazenda Nova Suiza (770 ha), Fazenda Catuai (934 ha), Fazenda Nossa Senhora De Fatima (235 ha) - the latter at least certified by BCS-OKO as organic. With that in mind, I wonder what MAPA might bring? http://www.coffee-resources.com/nossa-senhora-de-fatima/ https://twitter.com/harvestminerals/status/1001407585357041664?s=21
Looks like Velosa are at the very least trialing KP Fertil. https://twitter.com/harvestminerals/status/1001407585357041664?s=21 Velosa are a huge coffee producer with over 1270 hectares of which 70% is used to grow coffee. Massive potential if the trial translates into sales.
In the interim whilst we wait for updated sales numbers and full MAPA, it's always worth reminding ourselves why we're invested. Go and have another look at this: https://youtu.be/IkptBfYVGYg
For decent chart analysis, Nicola Duke covered HMI on the 14th May on the Vox markets podcast - take a listen from 3:30. Close above 22.2p or trade above 24.15 signals a breakout and gives us a target of 34.75. https://youtu.be/7FqPVk1E2Ys
Exactly. Everyone should listen to the interview from the link I posted below. It's not only a formality but it's also fairly irrelevant. The stuff is selling, it's just a question of how much. Given it's cheaper and better than the competition I suspect the first set of sales figures will be encouraging.
Think it'll take a while longer than this week; maybe towards the end of the month, if not June. It'll come though. Doesn't matter though, they're cracking on with expansion and sales regardless. Take a look: https://twitter.com/davidburton1971/status/993756077773729792?s=21
HongKong - many thanks for making the effort to attend and then sharing your experience with us. Great news about the buyer who came back for more; it confirms what we were led to believe that not only is our product better than the competition but also cheaper. I don't suppose any more light was shed on their success regarding sales since the big order of 35kt was announced a few weeks ago and whether there is any pent up demand just waiting for MAPA? Any other info you can share would be appreciated.
Great post diplomat outlining a bit of historic perspective I wasn't aware of. Many thanks. Given the talks with JSW over a prospective takeover are likely to take months and that this skirmish with the courts, which appears to be 'standard operating procedure' in Poland will run concurrently, I doubt it'll add much time at all to the eventual outcome - JSW buying us for multiples of our current price over the summer or towards the end of it. Would just like Ben Stoikovich to give a pep talk to reassure the worriers and refer them to some of these historic events.
Poland is in the EU not Africa. The delay in issuing the permit whilst the state owned company is in potential negotiations to buy the company or a portion of it is blatant, worthy of the worst examples in Africa. Unless Poland wants to be viewed as the such a despotic place to do business it had better sort this out in a fair and legal manner. Still think Praire hold all the cards and if management are as competent as I think they are, we should still be able to overcome this hurdle.
Would love to hear Stoikovic's rebuttal to the Czech article. You never can tell with these AIM guys how much spin they put into their presentations but having said that even with the revised coal prices from the article (if you were to believe them) the economics are still outstanding.