The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
xviolet - dont forget that A2P3 isn't blinded as its against a comparator. So strong results coming in and rising covid issues in US may force the US Gov's hand to invite us to apply for a EUA...
Also mention of previous highs are skewed - they were before the share placing of Q3 2020. Market Cap of company is higher now than its ever been.
They may seen as a salary bonus, but the important point to remember is that they may not have been willing to join Synairgen without the offer of these options. Most of the new recruits have come from large corporates with safe jobs - joining a small biotech has to be seen as a riskier career choice that needs to balanced against a greater potential reward.
When he said it would be available this winter to the UK population, did he mean via a trial?
Thanks Matml - Yes Skeletor has alluded to my follow up question as to how come there is suddenly so much share liquidity and available sellers willing to give up their shares.
It would make sense in my head more if the volume was more steady/typical and the SP stayed constant to fill a big II order - but I'm puzzled why the sudden flood of shares when its not an earth shattering rise that could precede a fall and people want to crystallise their profits.
Personally, with further Activ2 detail potentially 'imminent' and then LPD for Sprinter in the next few weeks I'm going to continue patiently waiting for continued rises - even if today wasn't as explosive as hoped.
I'd hope someone with more experience could add their thoughts, but its does seem off to have 10 million shares traded today and for the SP to have stayed at 165p (+/- 5p) for the entire day from 8.15 onwards. Like I've mentioned on another post, I'm betting we see a TR1 on Friday morning.
Sorry, need to correct myself here as Polygon would have 24hrs grace to make the market aware of any significant further share acquisitions - Friday AM would be more accurate for a TR-1
Surely more likely than not, in my opinion. 7 million shares traded this morning - when daily average is 1.5m. My gut feel is that they're filling their boots now that the investment has been further derisked with A2P3 progression news.
Thanks TLWilliams. I still feel molnupiravir treatment is caught in a bit of a conundrum. It has to be given very soon after infection when the patient isn't particularly poorly - but its a drug that still has question marks around whether it is mutagenic to people (trial patients were forbidden from having unprotected sex due to Merck's concerns).
So it doesnt at this point seem like a wonder drug to 'cure' covid - but perhaps something to use in very vulnerable older patients that are at high risk if infected.
Crucially from a SNG investment perspective, molnupiravir is useless once a patient is hospitalised and breathless..
Yes I believe others have communicated with US contacts to ask the question and the response has been that it is up to the company involved in the trial to announce progression to A2P3.
Did they not look back at phase 2 hospital trials and combine the breathless patient results with the home trial to improve the signal that SNG treatment helped breathless patients?
Ghia - You're right that the SPRINTER results will be far more impactful than the Activ2 trial (unless there is a pivot towards breathless patients in that trial for P3).
However the participation in Activ2 for SNG has been invaluable. It has provided a tiny UK Biotech with contacts and a relationship with people in the US that would have been very hard to engage without this trial. SNG would have been at a standing start after announcing their Sprinter P3 results.
It feels at the moment that the likes of Janet Woodc0ck and others are very much aware of SNG - and are almost as frustrated themselves at the time it has taken to get the gold standard results they need to get the ball rolling. Perhaps some of the current delays with progression to A2 P3 are due to internal discussions as to how to make the trial more relevant and focused, since in practice it seems likely now the SNG treatment would be given in a targeted manner to breathless patients - or perhaps those with auto-antibody issues - rather than to wider scale "potentially vulnerable" positive cases.
Andym - you've fallen into the modern fashion of arguing which is unhealthy to useful debate. To use a football analogy, you're trying to take out the player rather than playing the ball.
The success or failure of SNG does not rely on the UK government - something that I'm thankful for as they have a chequered history with their involvement with other biotechs during this pandemic. Just look at the damage they have done to UK covid testing companies with their flip flopping and delayed invoice payments.
Focus your eyes on the US and the EMA in Europe. This is where our pot of gold lies.
https://audioboom.com/posts/7956254-vadim-alexandre-discusses-the-complete-response-letter-received-by-polarean-from-the-fda
Definitely worth a listen for any POLX investor. Points out the positives that another trial is not required and that the requests for resubmission are predominantly technical. Biggest impact is the delay in time to market for POLX.
Dulyred - I agree. I've just tripled my holding this morning.
Will get back to strumming my desk with my fingers while I wait for news now :)
Fully agree that Polygon investing further is only a good thing. It should also reduce the erratic nature of the SP if more shares are held by an ii that is holding for a big pay out and won't panic when there's 'noise' in the meantime.
Andybe4 - Please understand people's wariness when an investor in a company for over a year, that has been reading this forum over that time period suddenly converts from being mute to a prolific poster and is also a concerned investor. Trust and more weight will be earnt over time - especially if your posts dont only coincide with price drop days :)
To answer your question as a LTH who bought at the fund raise - as well as before and after - I'm fairly sanguine. A lot of covid stocks have taken a hit today including big pharma vaccine companies. Today presents a good buying opportunity in my opinion.
Molnupiravir doesnt play in the same space as SNG - as its useless for hospitalised patients. It also has safety concerns which would currently mean its not going to be dished out willynilly. You will also likely see the Ivermectin crowd making a lot out of these safety issues.
Hold tight, be patient and wait for the Sprinter results and you will be rewarded
Radium1 - The Sprinter trial will be showing efficacy in treating hospitalised and breathless patients. Molnupiravir is useless in treating in treating these patients - dont you agree?
Others have already pointed out your inaccuracies - such as "meaningful results not expected much before mid 2022" and data coming out 'on a first in first out basis'. You also seem desperately keen to promote the Merck news when this product doesn't really play in the same space as SNG. The Sprinter trial will be showing efficacy in treating hospitalised and breathless patients. Molnupiravir is useless in treating in treating these patients - dont you agree?
We will leave out the fact that trial participants in the Merck trial had to abstain from sex or use contraception due to mutagenicity concerns that Merck still has with their product.
Your sudden desire to spend the day warning other investors of impending doom after not contributing to the board at all, doesn't ring true.
It comes across as a poster looking to assist in pushing the SP down by pushing FUD to attempt to unsettle some PI's into closing or reducing their position. Often these kind of actions are conducted on behalf of II's that are looking for a lower entry point and excess volume to hide their share acquisitions.
Radium1 - I'm sorry but your sudden rampant negative posting in the last 24hrs on the LSE SNG board after not having posted anything here for months previously (despite supposedly being an investor until now) doesn't really ring true.
Fingers crossed for a bidding war between them - would be a massive differentiator for them