Member Info for ALGU

Something cooking??

My guesses:
No LP + Vraptor before drill result = 8p
LP + Vraptor before drill result = 15p

No LP + Vraptor success = 25p
LP + Vraptor success = 30p

Vraptor duster = 7.5p with LP, 2p without.

Land permit aside, what is everyone's SP prediction for when the Vraptor drill gets going in Q2? MCap is only £30million today and we're targeting 200m barrels.
By way of very rough comparison, ECO Atlantic drilled for c.200m barrels offshore Africa last year and from memory the mcap hit c.£180m during drilling. Clearly different portfolios but interesting comparison

Placing was oversubscribed. Retail offer may be too...but regardless the SP is attractive enough today for anyone wanting to buy in to do so. Given the placing result the retail offer doesn't really need to be successful from the company's perspective. It has already raised what it needed to.

Yes the land permit is taking too long to come through and yes MB said we were fully funded in December (we can infer from that what we will), but the facts today are the SP has dropped, the money is being used for Velociraptor, and there is a chance to now buy in (either open market or retail offer) before the likely (in my honest view) SP build up before drilling takes place. I would much rather invest with newsflow to follow, which is why I have bought more today, plus the risk of not being fully allocated if the retail offer is oversubscribed.

Just my take on it - and, perhaps, for these reasons, the SP today won't languish for long where it currently is. I may or will be wrong, but that's what sits logically with me.

Others welcome to their opinions, of course, and DYOR

Odd to see this down today when LOGP has raised funds at a slight premium to their shareprice. Enough breathing space to wait a few months for the Barryroe approval to come in. Very silent here and on LOGP. This is either the calm before the rerate or death by a thousand cuts

Fundraise at a slight premium to the share price today but very quiet here. Meanwhile BEY down 12%

Enough cash to keep the lights on for another 4 months. It feels like if the Barryroe approval doesn't come by then it never will. Seems extraordinary that it's taken this long. Keeping fingers crossed, it's hard to know what else can be done. But perhaps the fundraise today indicates that conversations may be happening behind the scenes, one can only hope

Presumably the board would have to tell the market if no bids had been received, as that would indicate the sale process has come to an end?

I suspect they are trying to get the deal done by Christmas. This is the way with a lot of corporate transactions/M&A that use Christmas as a natural target. But in reality a lot of these transactions are overly ambitious and also slip, so it wouldn't surprise me if it completes in January

If LOGP needs to raise its 20% share it will be markedly easier to do so now BEY has funding in place. Would-be LOGP investors can look across and see BEY's funding issues have been sorted, thereby in turn significantly decreasing the risk to any LOGP investment. LOGP has had loyal backers for years so no doubt the money could be found. That said, agreed it may be the LG loan never gets drawn down, with some other funding being sorted instead. Surprised the SP here hasn't budged more, but maybe the lease undertaking signoff will be the true catalyst.

AB sounds calm and bullish in his statement, it’s now a question of when, not if.

I wonder if BEY could now be in the market for LOGP's share of barryroe by buying LOGP. At present LOGP's market cap is £5m against BEY's c.£37m. Yet LOGP has a fifth of the barryroe asset. Which means either BEY is overvalued or LOGP is undervalued relative to one another (IMHO they are both undervalued relative to the market). If BEY decided to buy LOGP i wonder how they would price LOGP. It would clean up the ownership. I guess it could have happened over the years already, but now with Larry Goodman owning a bit chunk of BEY it could make more sense, IMHO

Sifting through the outcome today for positives - and that is there are a number of future high impact catalysts that could propel this upwards again. This isn't a one-well one-trick pony, there's more to play for. The SP may drift a bit but am hopeful the existing acreage will provide decent newsflow. All IMHO. It was always a risk this well would come in dry, i would not have invested on the basis of one well alone, but did so based on future wells/assets in Eco's portfolio, that's my take on it.

the increase from 25 to 35% incentivises would-be tax paying companies to invest in UK O&G even more. The tax break surely looks even better to those companies now. Surely this is more positive for JOG IMHO

Talks of China relaxing its zero tolerance covid policy should be good news for MATD. Other stocks have risen sharply based on this news e.g. FTSE100 miners. If only the permitting issues could get sorted here

Good points NM. This feels like it was already priced for failure, but as you say there are still some factors weighing on the SP.

I had also wondered whether Perenco would take BLVN out given their poor financial position. I wonder what it would take to do this. Aside from the $25m FID sum due to BLVN (that would presumably be factored into a takeover amount) an overall sum of say $50m would be peanuts for Perenco whereas for BLVN would still dwarfs the market cap of £7m today and would take the SP into double figures.

That's why a few months ago i was interested what Perenco are paying New Age for their share of the project, as this would give some indication of what BLVN's share is worth.

You may be right nomlungu, but tbh the risk of a financing before the FID funds arrive has always been on the cards. Anway let's hope Perenco get their act together.

A year left of cash before BLVN runs out. It seems the catalyst will be Perenco deal finalising, and when that happens it will be much easier for BLVN to raise funds IMHO.
Currently -40% at time of writing, seems rather hefty drop considering nothing has changed except delays and still with a year till cash runs out. This was always a binery bet. Aside from the delays announced todays there's nothing particularly negative in the results. Bring on New Age making way for Perenco

Due diligence may complete in October but it’s not accurate to say commercial discussions start thereafter - the September interims already told us: ‘Constructive commercial discussions are taking place with potential counterparties‘

Agreed. Feels like this has been disproportionally marked down due to the wider market/inflation/cost of living concerns. WOSG results have always been good. IMHO the cost of living crisis will be felt most by those struggling to make ends meet, not for WOSG customers who will likely be much higher earners. Sad fact of life the current climate, but WOSG may be somewhat insulated from that.

Clock begins - c.25 days' time we will know the result