Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/tcap-problem-we-have-a-houston
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/introducing-tp-icap
Https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/chry-stallising-value
Https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/bringing-cadence-to-cadence
Https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/crack-open-the-kav-a
Https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/pos-sobilities-grow
Https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/jlp-jubilee-interims-h1-fy24
Hi again Su, I repost this message from 14th November 2023 as this was my last interaction with Paul. And among his last posts on BMN. I'd like to think it gave him a chuckle.
PDUB 15th November: "Great post Agricore!"
(replying to)
Agricore 14th November:
"Goat,
I can't speak for PDub's thesis.
But I struggle to understand what you mean when you say "sort quasi asset valuation" and what that might be?
When you say "assets seem to be being sold off... which isn’t the hallmark of attractive investment proposition" I'm not clear how or why the sale of an asset is a hallmark of anything, per se. Businesses sell assets all the time, that's normal, it's not a hallmark. It's usually based on a strategy - as it was for BMN.
You end with "I suspect we will shortly see another round of dilution." Is suspect the right word? Or did you read an RNS (as we all have) that BMN is currently refinancing its debt in the next few weeks and that convertible equity is part of this.
You ask for an investment thesis and a valuation model. I hope you find this useful:
1. BMN's clever restructuring that increases asset valuation and minimal dilution. Thesis here: https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bmn-eck
2. 5 drivers to value at BMN. Thesis here: https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bushveld-5-more-drivers-to-value
3. 9 more drivers to value at BMN. Thesis here: https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bushveld-minerals-value-trap-or-up
4. BMN's SPR deal. A specially pleasing result. Thesis here: https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/spr-specially-pleasing-result.
Congratulations too on your 42% gain. On your punt. Clearly for all your apparent bearishness you seem to have followed some kind of investment thesis too. Why don't you share yours too? Or was it just a punt?
"
Hi Su,
Among many other Bushies here I had a great respect for PDUB and his knowledge and am saddened by the news. Paul was a great advocate for BMN and echoing Faramog, I believe in time his conviction for BMN and Vanadium will yield results for you.
I offer my hope and wishes for you and all the Watkins clan a peace and comfort as you treasure Paul's memory.
Bangrak,
Zeus put the difference at a more realistic 40% - see:
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/i/141159396/disposed-to-change
Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/anic-ye-results-2023-tasty-times