focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Gregpeck7, for Field Production info go to:
ETAP [Entreprise Tunisienne d'Activites Petrolieres] website,
www.etap.com.tn
click on “Production”, then “Production journaliere”, then on “PDF Huile” for dates as required. No update since 11.07.21. SLK & Ezzaouia both listed but not Robbana and El Bibane as the latter two are 100% ZEN owned. Gas production from SLK is listed under “PDF Gaz”
Over to you to keep us posted on any significant changes. One less source for me to keep an eye on!!
MarketG, thanks for alerting us to the Africa Intelligence article. As we know from previous experience AI are fond of dishing dirt and not always based on verifiable evidence. However, this article appears credible.
Your conclusion that Teresa Goma is being shown the door appears correct from this and other sources and should therefore remove one of the potential obstacles to a conclusion of the Tilapia deal. The following improved translation extract [ as you say, Google Translate is useless] seems to sum up the situation:
“Nothing is going well at the Ministry of Hydrocarbons between the new holder of the portfolio, Bruno Jean Richard Itoua, and the DG of Hydrocarbons, Teresa Goma. Reputedly very close to Denis Gokana, the special adviser to President Denis Sassou Nguesso on hydrocarbons, Goma can no longer stand the vexations of her minister, who does not involve her in any of the strategic reflections, nor in any of the hearings he has been holding since the end of May with the main players in the oil sector.”
The article also implies that Bruno Itoua intends to replace the CEO of SNPC and makes specific reference to the MKB Fields about which I have posted [ eg 10.07.20] suggesting it, or part of it, as being the most likely candidate as ZEN's JV target after Tilapia. The translated extract is as follows:
“The minister [Bruno Itoua] reproached him [Maixent Ominga, CEO of SNPC] in particular for not having developed the MKB licence operated by SNPC and above all for not having been able to put the company's financial situation in order.”
Hopefully Donatien Mpika, ZEN's Country Manager, and AC, have direct access to Itoua, so news of Tilapia, and maybe MKB or an alternative, may not be too far off.
AGEOS
Florida, it is not possible to answer your question as there are too many variables, as explained in detail in my post of 06.04.21. In summary, there are possibly 6 wells in production all with different flow rates each determined by different geotechnical characteristics. The 1000 bopd quoted in the ZEN RNS is probably an estimate of the total production expected from various interventions on those wells considered most susceptible to enhanced flow. As explained in the 06.04 post, CaCO3 scaling of production pipes is a characteristic of the field so targeted de-scaling is the most likely intervention..
MG, I assume the production increase is the results in part, or whole, of the “planned field production optimisation and workover activities” referred to in the 15.03.21 RNS, and restated on the company website, as “expected to increase Ezzaouia gross production to 1000 bopd”. If so there may be further work planned which would explain why AC has not issued an RNS reporting this current production increase. It would be permissible to delay such an RNS until an ongoing program is completed.
ZEN are perhaps also constrained in reporting as they are still awaiting parliamentary approval for the acquisition.
According to the latest production numbers released by ETAP [Tunisia State oil company] daily oil production from Ezzaouia doubled from c400bopd to 800+bopd during the week 05.07.21 – 11.07.2021.
Daily totals were 394 [05], 399 [06], 414 [07], 879 [08], 501 [09], 843 [10] & 791 [11]. Previous production was consistently in the 380-480 bopd range, except for a dip to between 152-225 bopd from 26-29 June which suggests downtime for an intervention of some kind during those four days.
So, if the current production is maintained and the increase is not a recording anomaly, it indicates a doubling of the 45% due to ZEN. The RNS of 15.03.21 announcing the acquisition, reported production as approx 465 bopd of which 210 bopd was net to ZEN.
AGEOS
Chrysoberyl, I note your request of last Wednesday for an update and although I have integrated all core-data to date into the 3D model for APTA, I will delay posting an Au resource estimate until the assays for remaining holes, 92-5, are available for inclusion.
In the meantime Fig 2 on page 4 of the July 6th RNS provides an indication of the likely aerial and spatial [top-left diagram] characteristics of the resource, named North APTA. This confirms the assessment I posted way-back on 13.10.2018, so I anticipate a resource estimate consistent with the prediction I made then. Note that North APTA has a strike of 500m maximum and that its continuation southward for 250m is uneconomical based on current evidence. Also the 50-100m of strike beyond that [South APTA], although including some very high-grade intercepts, is also of questionable economic viability as there appears to be insufficient tonnage with favourable spatial distribution, again based on drill results to date.
Whilst the field-assessment of APTA appears to be now on hold, with just one rig assigned to infill drilling, the prospect of extending drilling to Jesuitas and the newly identified areas of Pupino and Pepas indicates that the geological model may for these targets at least, be focusing on potential Miocene-age epithermal Au mineralisation associated with the Aragon fault. Guaimarala, south of and close to APTA, may also be prioritised for the same reason although the regional geology leaves open the prospect of VMS type mineralisation there also. APTA as is now well established, is a Cretaceous age VMS deposit overprinted by the Miocene epithermal episode.
With this expansion in activities beyond APTA now in prospect I anticipate significant and hopefully very positive developments by end of year. Best of luck with your investments CB.
AGEOS.
The $4.5m [presumed net to ZEN] oil sale ['lifting' in technical parlance] is a sale from the 200,000 barrel capacity Zarzis storage facility, of 68,000 barrels of cumulative production from the Robbana, Ezzaouia and El Bibane Fields since acquisition. See historical posts for details.
The sale will have been agreed with ETAP[National Oil Company]which is entitled to 55% of the Ezzaouia Field production, plus royalties and the proportion [20,000 barrels] contractually due to the domestic market .
AGEOS
Today's announcement regarding plans for a proposed new well, ROB-3, at the Robbana field, is consistent with the Winance loan agreement for EUR 2.1m [RNS 26.05.2021] stated as being “to commence near-term operational objectives in Tunisia”. Since the loan agreement was, as is now evident for the purpose of drilling ROB-3, it was incumbent on ZEN to inform the market within a reasonable time frame, as it has now done.
Those who bothered to read my post of 04.05.2021 will know something of the context of ROB-3 and anyone who researched the Robbana Field acquisition will also understand the reference to “long-lead items” in today's RNS. In summary, ROB-3 and other possible infill wells “including deviation and side-track scenarios” , were planned as far back as 2014, and engineering studies were said then to “ have been completed in order to be ready to start the procurement of the long-lead items”. Today's statement that “the equipment is currently being inspected.....to ensure that all the necessary equipment is available [to meet requirements for a vertical well of 2400m]” is therefore an understandably precautionary qualification.
I will await a further update on the drilling program before commenting on the geotechnical aspects of ROB-3 which will be an indicator of both the challenges and potential rewards of ZEN's developmental program in the Jeffara Basin.
AGEOS.
.
With both the SLK and Ezzaouia concessions still subject to parliamentary approvals, and to the agreement and participation of ETAP in any development programmes relating to those concessions, it seems highly likely that the loan agreement announced today is primarily intended for work on either the El Bibane or Robbana concessions. ZEN has 100% operational control of both.
Limiting the loan agreement to six months suggests that work intended to add significantly to production, is planned for completion well within that time frame, and such an agreement would not have been concluded without a works contract being agreed and ready for signing. Since the April 30th RNS referred to ZEN having “already obtained market quotations for the well intervention to restore production [to 500+bopd] from well EBB-3 for an amount of $3.5m” it seems probable that this may be the initial target. The alternative at Robbana is as I posted on 04.05. “an infill well to be drilled in the proximity of well ROB-1 expected to produce approximately 200 bopd”
Whatever the intended work program it will probably be revealed very soon.
AGEOS
Bear666, no I have not missed your point. Merely indicating that your point is fundamentally mistaken. Perhaps conveniently you believed what AJB claimed.
As to my “long winded posts” if my 25 years experience as CEO of an international exploration company and lifetime as a geologist has, in your view contributed to your investment here, I suggest you filter my future posts and find an alternative scapegoat.
Bear666 your recollections require updating.
AJB it appears was an “Emperor with no clothes” and was unceremoniously removed from LSE together with all his utterances. I offered him universal fame [reproduced below for light entertainment] but he declined.
AJB, thanks for your considered and revelatory response. It appears that you have discovered a causal relationship between the decision making capabilities of a CEO [AC] and a multitude of geophysical parameters which determine the production of oil from a pre-existing well such that the latter can be said to be the direct responsibility of the former.
It is possible that you are unaware of the significance of this discovery so I suggest you explain the causal process in a series of logical consecutions which I can then submit to the President of the Geol Soc with my recommendation that you be invited to present your thesis to the profession in a special meeting at Burlington House.
I can assure you that the magnitude of your apparent discovery will not only elevate you to the intellectual heights of the geosciences but due to the inference of a previously unknown physical force inherent in your theory, require modification of the Standard Model for universal physics, a consequence which would certainly gain you a Nobel Prize.
AGEOS
Resourcehunter is still with us [posted May 5th] and reasonably realistic in expectations.
Memories, and I do not exclude mine, can fool the best of us.
Chrysoberyl, apologies for the belated response to your Sunday post and even more so for missing the earlier request for information in March which I have only just seen on reading your post history. I no longer read this BB regularly as, for a geologist, it is thoroughly depressing.
With regard to the APTA Au resource estimate which I last referred to on February 8th, I am still updating this for my own interest as and when well-logs and assays are released by RNS, but decided not to post the updates here. Based on the negative response to that initial 100m block-model estimate, I concluded it was of no interest to anyone on this BB and as it takes several hours work to compile the results I decided it was a waste of my time. Sorry if that disappoints.
Having read all your posts I understand and concur with your short term investment strategy here at this time. What may be of benefit in that respect is to bear in mind that the May 4th RNS confirms that the current back-log of assay samples can only relate to the 7 holes. 083-089, some of which were still in progress at that time. The 2100m max of core from those holes would easily account for the 2000 current assay back-log of which 400 would be blanks, and 200-250 samples per hole for poly-metallic assay. So these 7 are the holes for which results are likely to be released next and having integrated them into the 3D geological model it is possible to predict their probabilistic results. Holes 087 and 088 have a high probability of intersecting little of economic interest, and 083, 084, 085 and 089 are all step-outs with high probability of low to medium Au grades. 086 is the only hole with a high probability of good Au grades. I emphasise these are probabilities not certainties.
The RNS incorporating these results will probably also include details of the next batch of drill coordinates which will have been submitted for permitting on the basis of results to date. I anticipate further APTA drilling may be limited or may be deferred in favour of another target such as Charrascala, or if they have overcome the access problems, of Guaimarala. As vector analysis, which I have mentioned in a previous post, has not been referred to regarding the APTA cores, deeper drilling at APTA seems unlikely. With regard to APTA viability bear in mind that Brad, during his last interview, compared it to the El Roche VMS deposit 30km to the SW, not picked up by anyone here but on which I have posted in detail from at least Jan 2019.
I hope this information compensates for the lack of update to the APTA Au resource estimate and wish you well with your future investment decisions.
AGEOS.
Agree with all details of MarketG's explanation of the LSE share admission initiative and associated prospectus issue.
I am also relieved that this is underway as it otherwise leaves open the possibility of ZEN delisting from London. UK based Panoro Energy is solely listed on the Oslo Exchange and doing very well so AC must have been tempted to follow suite especially after the 2016/17 Jermyn St bear raid, which cost ZEN and us long termers a lot.
With all shares listed on the London Main Market ZEN will be more accessible and attractive to institutional investors and less vulnerable to the Jermyn St mobsters and their kind.
GosiaS, as I didn't read your post I cannot comment on its content. If you have issues regarding its removal you should raise them with LSE.
My post was to explain that in removing posts LSE are complying with their legal obligations under UK legislation.
31 posts removed today by LSE in compliance with the Defamation [Operators of Websites] Regulations 2013, section s5(2) of the Act.
A warning to those who think that 'Freedom of Speech' means freedom to defame others and to damage their financial interests with impunity.
I wouldn't get too excited about the quote from the Offshore Energy article ie “Zenith has already obtained around $3.5 million for the well intervention.........”
That isn't a quote from AC. It appears to be a mis-quote from the April 30th RNS which reads “”Zenith has already obtained market quotations for the well intervention.....of approximately $3.5 million. A bit of journalistic licence I suspect.
Interventions at Robbana and Ezzaouia are more likely before EBB-3.
Ezhik, as previously posted, oil from Ezzaouia is stored at the 200,000 barrel MARETAP facility at Zarzis co-mingled with oil from El Bibane and Robbana. Liftings ie sales are stated to occur “at regular intervals as the storage facilities reach capacity.”
The “receipt of “monthly production revenue of approx $400,000” mentioned by AC on March 24th 2021 does not mean that liftings are every month or that cash of that amount is necessarily received every month, it simply means that revenue of that amount and that frequency accrues to the company from Ezzaoia production.
Also 10m not 100m shares are due at the current SP for completion of the deal.
Apologies if this duplicates, Original appeared here and then immediately disappeared.
Although AC's diction makes transcription difficult the following extracts seem of note:
AC in answer to Q re 2P reserves “2P reserves of 9m [barrels oil] plus El Bibane, Ezzaouia and Robbana of at least 11m....so total of 20m plus”
Stig “with 20m 2P the market cap is very low”
AC “300-400mNOK is more realistic” ie £26-35m
AC “Tilapia deal will be automatically followed by another acquisition” This presumably refers to the 07.07.2020 RNS re a Joint Venture Agreement for the acquisition of a second acquisition in Congo Brazzaville, which I detailed in a 10.07.2020 post and suggested might be one or more of the MKB Fields.
AC “another high producing acquisition in a West African country” suggested as imminent and probably referring to the “major production asset formerly operated by a major international oil company” which was the subject of a 12.02.2020 RNS. As posted on 21.02.2020 & 18.06.2020, Gabon is the most likely country, with Angola or Cameroon possible alternatives.