The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
uncertain it's more to do with sentiment than ill-informed ramping and that no good news is priced in.
One of the key scenarios below has to play out and none means we stay exactly where we are. very good risk v reward for AIM.
1) SY is awared production license.
Makes CASP profitable at current prices and MJF development can progress. 6p.
2) Domestic prices rise back to $18/bbl
The income from export is currently higher than any time in CASP's history - I have checked that on the 'Kaz matrix'.
It's the the $6 domestic thats loss making, which if returns to pre covid prices will make CASP more profitable than they have been to-date. 10-12p
3) Win NY (MJF) appeal
Very likely judge would order a refund on payments made to date. They'll be sitting on a pile of cash and surplus income which would take us back to 12-15p.
4) They flow a deep.
One deep flowing means all of them can flow. That's when the MCap goes to 1bn.
5) CE is chartered.
That's the jackpot. I doubt the deeps will be an issue for long with access to those funds.
They won't have issues with licences or charges either.
Mr C, can you tell me why ARB is valued at 1bn? Rationallity and logic has got nothing to do with investing anymore.
It's all about faith, belief, hope and imagination ... all those words we were told to ignore by investment gurus of the past.
I don't understand it but it makes me money. The 20 somethings get it ... we are all old farts here .. so we don't get it.
Lack of faith, belief, hope and imagination meant I sold ARB way too soon. Chase the rainbows ... believe the BS ... make money.
The market has changed ... it's run by children ... so start to think like one ... it'll be fun for sure.
It's worth remembering that court cases are open to the public in Kaz. They'll know the outcomes (or the general direction it's heading in) well before any of us get a hint. Watch the trades.
Imagine them winning and Kaz having to pay them back with interest - that's around $ 4mil by my calculation.
GL.
Although I dislike personal attacks I think Clive's earned this one.
You see Badge ... objects with a lot of mass create a strong gravitational field ... that curves space and time ... the bigger the curve ... the slower time.
Einstien warned us about this ... but did we listen ??
https://www.quora.com/Why-does-time-slow-down-near-a-massive-object
Badge all the info is in here. This is all part of the merger ... yup it's still going on after 3 years.
https://www.caspiansunrise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Roxi-circular-27-February-2017.pdf
KO, Dosbol, Daehan and some other chump held shares in BNG via Baverstock. After the merger they were told sell out of Baverstock and then buy directly with CASP.
Looks like Daehan slowed the whole process down. Remember CASP did say they would "facilitate the process" .... could that mean sell high and then buy back low ...
Daehan held 224,830,964 shares through baverstock, now they hold directly the same amount. Nothings changed. The percentages ... well ... they never get those right ... cos they're never sure how many in issue.
The 11.7% is based on 1,927,963,084 (pre CE) shares in issue and the 10.77% is based on 2,088,219,494 (post CE).
Come on chaps .. do try and keep up.
Gritster
A paragraph like this without caveat when spotted in a future RNS will rerate the market cap to 1bn in a single trading session.
"We are naturally delighted that all three of the deep wells drilled on the Airshagyl structure have now flowed consistently for over 90 days. We now have a compelling commercial case to seek to move this structure onto an international based licence with the majority of oil produced from the Airshagyl structure then being sold by reference to worlds rather than domestic prices. As such we have logged our application with Kazakhstan authorties and will inform market when approval is recieved in due course."
Any other statement is just grade A BS.
Imagine what it will feel like to finally have those deeps flowing and KO submits his application for Airshagyl to be upgraded to production. In all that excitement CE gets commisioned. The relief that KO has finally delivered on his promise.
How will it feel like to sell those 100k punts at 20p.
If Cadogan can do 100% from the lows, then there's hope for CASP.
There is no pump & dump here. With oil prices recovering people naturally assumed that there would some recovery in CASP and thus bought in. The lack of news put doubt on that assumption and people ran for the hills once more.
I agree with your comment about it being in the lap of the gods. It's exactlty what the last RNS said ... but in more secular lingo.
Need faith more than patience.
MLQ, yes.
Some other tenders in relationship to the BNG historic cost online. It's the first time I have seen MJF and SY referrred to with their own sub soil contract number. Usually BNG is treated as one block.
My guess (DYOR) is that they have been asked to resubmit their documents and hence the tender to commission a consultancy to do that. I woud see that as good news because they must have agreed an out of court arrangement.
This is for MJF
https://www.bicotender.ru/tender177561963.html
https://www.bicotender.ru/tender177268059.html
$3mil pipeline tender for MJF is back. They had one out last year but didn't follow through.
Feeling positive again about this one.
If a small company in Poland can develop it in a few months I'm sure others with more resources can manage it too or they can just hire FP who are advertising their services in this regard.
Bleepa is not a product. It's a feature. If you are unsure what I mean look here https://simplicable.com/new/product-vs-feature
Right now it's a feature of Cadran which isn't the only PACS in town.
The risks are there. They can be mitigated but given the delays in generating revenue from this feature the risk will manifest itself with a drop in the SP.
Rooky, when the company rushes out a tweet with old news everytime the sp dips below the placing price of 1p you know there is a problem.
The worry here is that the NHS get to pilot new tech for free with a small company who'll bend over backwards to support them. And when ready they go with a large cap.
Like going to the high street to check out a product and have the staff explain to you in detail how it all works and then you go home to buy it off amazon.
I don't mind waiting for my investments. It's the dilution that bothers me. SP of 1p with a market cap of 5mil before the fundraise is now a SP of 0.5p with the same market cap. Op expenses were at 1.8mil for 2019. I expect that to be more than double for 2020/21. That 5mil won't last long.
At some point investors will run for the door as they did in march this year. We hit 0.3p. That's 0.15p today. Too much downside here to attract any new or further investment.