Member Info for adamj2021

Selling before the conference call and before the Americans have even woken up is crazy to me.

Many of the times institutional speculation is correct, and it is not factorered into the price. PBT with Hibbet = under 6, next year European warehouse is set to greatly improve European profitability. Sky is the limit.

Thanks for the dip pre-earnings. It's going to be a banger no doubt, so many positive catalysts, and even pre-confirmation from Frasers and retail data released other day about the strength that is in the UK sportswear market. Only on the LSE could such an easy short term trade be possible.

You want a medal for guessing a 50/50 chance?

How much of the shareholders equity is actually cash?

"The big one for me remains the merging of two indexes, at the moment most if not all UK funds cannot buy S4, that's set to change soon."

Can you elaborate on what this means 1Pencil please.

"No, S4Capital has no ownership in S4S Ventures and has provided the company with no capital." was the response, guess that clears that up.

I have now, thank you!

No one?

Though if they do own 50% of it, and it has any meaningful stuff inside of it, not sure why we don't hear about it anymore.

I emailed IR about this a while back and no on responded so will ask here:

Does S4 Capital have ownership over S4S Ventures.

If so how much, and how much money is in it, and is there a way to see these investments.

Judging by this text in the 2022 earnings, it owns 50% of it? And the linkedin page updates recently so presumably its still running...:

"The Group, through its subsidiary S4Capital 2 Ltd a directly owned subsidiary, together with Stanhope Capital LLP (Stanhope LLP),

through its subsidiary Portman Square General Partner S.à r.l. (Stanhope), subscribed for the initial EUR6,000 of shares each to incorporate S4S Ventures General Partner S.à r.l. (GP), a Luxembourg company. The GP has since established two S4S Ventures funds established in Luxembourg and the US. The Group has a 50% interest in the GP, a joint venture whose primary activity is to invest in technology companies focused on the marketing and advertising industries, to focus on early-stage technology investments with the ability to transform the sector. S4S aims to invest in companies across five principal areas: Martech, Adtech, Data Technology, Creative Technology, and Emerging Digital Media/Content. The Group’sinterest is accounted for using the equity method in the consolidated financial statements."

That makes sense, ok thanks

Why isn't this in the FTSE 350? Has this ever been discussed?

To add to this, the people they are buying off, are retailers. 1 year ago, retailers held over 60 million shares of the company. Now they hold 6. 90% of retail have sold, presumably at a loss, in the last year. Institutions have absorbed all of these shares. It's why 90% of retail stock pickers lose money. They buy high, and then sell institutions when it is pushed down to a good valuation.

The irony of a falling stock price, is that the lower it goes the more risk is accounted for in the valuation, and it is inherently therefore less risky. Yet retailers have been fooled into equating volatility with risk.

Splunge, it's operations are cash generative right now, not talking about next year. Next year it will just be more obvious to those not willing to do any DD. You should learn to read financial statements, instead of just getting emotional about things with no argument/evidence.

Nice thanks for clarifying. In my bear case scenario, of no growth for 3 years, a 5% profit margin, and a very high discount rate...it is still undervalued on my DCF. Really does seem extremely undervalued once things stabilise. GLA.

Are you using their margin (10% Operational EBITDA margin), or are you talking about actual profit margin?

Accurately forecasting would have kept this a lot higher. They stated this is being worked on (new co-CEO focusing on it). The underlying low demand is cyclical and industry-wide, and will likely improve in H2 next year.

FYI they will have no acquisition costs next year and fewer staff to pay...so unless society is going to collapse next year, they will be producing a good amount of cash next year. Even if they have a shocking year and somehow end up at break even for a while, which I see no reason to believe they will, interest payments are at about £22m a year at all time high rates...so 5+ years until bankruptcy...

Really, you should be producing an argument for why they would go bankrupt, not the other way around because its an odd claim given they will have 100m+ in cash and are / will be still producing positive cash from operations. Stock price volatility does not say anything about a company's ability to stay solvent.