Member Info for AdamAnt

My word, you're right - the metaphorical Mordaunt has dropped. I shall clearly need to hone my reading skills if I am to come to grips with the exceptional subtlety and sophistication of this board. I hope I was the source of some mild amusement on an otherwise unamusing day.

Nordell, I don’t understand why you are worried? For sure, the 236 fib at 19 has been decisively broken today, but there is strong support at the bottom of that retracement structure (17.55) which coincides with the 12-May intraday low. This is a level at which a short term base can form, having shaken out weak holders, after which a powerful leg up should occur. I have a Buy order at 17.60 to add to my position, which may well not be reached, given the level of bullish sentiment. I also feel that TA is of limited value in this market, given that the share price is news and sentiment driven.

In your previous posting of 5th July, you acknowledged that the amount claimed by Allianz (ie the maximum liability) was £65m so I assume that your latest figure of £95m is a typo. Either that, or you have added Allianz's previous claim to their latest claim, which is incorrect, as the latest claim includes the previous one and is not additional to it.

There may be superficial comparisons with Studio Retail (supply chain issues, surplus stock). But JOUL has superior staying power, for reasons discussed earlier, as well as a great brand and distinctive products. Nothing is risk free.

Excellent, insightful comment, Pokerchips. Tom Joule will do what it takes to preserve what he can of his capital and save the company. Obviously we are all taking a bit of a haircut but better to ride this out than to leave the barber’s shop now. Comparisons with Laura Ashley and other failed retailers are daft, as anyone who knows the specifics will attest.

The rises over the past couple of trading days were on low volume. Nevertheless 16% is not to be scoffed at and shows how quickly the share price can move in a thin market. Dangerous to be short on this share, I would have thought. An out of court settlement is a distinct possibility, but I’m guessing this would most likely happen closer to the June 2023 deadline. The amount at stake is relatively unimportant to a large corporation like Allianz, so they may be more inclined to sit back, in the hope that time pressure gives them leverage on BWNG. But my assumption is that the settlement amount will no more, or not much more than Allianz’s original claim of £30m; so if the market is really expecting a much bigger number the eventual outcome will be a pleasant surprise.

The shares rose by almost 9% in the last half hour of trading, for no particular reason. Today’s AGM contained nothing that would have moved the share price, as far as I can see. Most intriguing...

I'd just add that HOC is not the only resource stock that is suffering a sharp drop today. All miners, like ANTO etc, are falling hard. First Majestic has fallen by a bigger percentage than HOC. Energy stocks are also suffering serious losses. All this reflects a general market panic about recession. Once the panic passes, I would expect HOC to claw its way back to roughly where it was when the panic started. None of the above detracts from the excellent comments from Sotolo and others about HOC which I found most insightful.

The trial is scheduled for June 2023. And any payments will not arise until at least FY 2024. So those pinning hopes for 10p on the (theoretical) possibility of an equity raise linked to the worst-case scenario for BWNG will have a long time to wait. On the other hand, if the eventual outcome is more favourable to BWNG than the worst-case scenario, expect the share price to soar, perhaps by many multiples of 10p!

I'm amazed by the strong market reaction (down 12% as I write) to the Times article. I thought the results were OK. Someone on the other discussion board has made a good case to show that the Times journalist got it wrong, but it seems that the market agrees with her! The shares are now on a huge discount to NAV and my belief is that they will claw their way back once the dust has settled. I have topped up on the way down!

It seems the market agrees with you!

“The court case could bankrupt them.” Really? Allianz is claiming “up to” £66million, which means that £66million is the worst-case scenario for BWNG. On the other hand, BWNG has made counter claims against Allianz and has made a provision in the accounts to settle for £29.8 million inclusive of legal costs, which looks realistic. Unfortunately, an attempt at mediation in April failed, so most likely the case will now go to court. But the Annual Report states that “the likelihood of a Court finding wholly in favour of the Insurer, without taking into account the costs already borne by JDW, is considered remote. Accordingly, the maximum potential outflow is considered to be significantly less than the £66 million claimed by the Insurer.”

The uncertainty over the outcome, which is likely to continue until at least the scheduled date of the hearing in June 2023, will no doubt weigh on the share price, along with all the other current macro-economic headwinds. But a fall in the SP to “the low teens” seems implausible, as this would take it back close to the Covid lows of March 2020, since when the company’s financial position has significantly improved after it raised almost £100 million to pay down its debts.

I also topped up today, as I had a buy order in at 472 which was triggered. I'm amazed that the SP has fallen over 9% on a broker opinion, which has affected LAND in a similar way. I'm betting that the effect of Merrill Lynch BOA report will wear off within a few days, in which case today's fall will be seen as a buying opportunity. Time will tell!

Good response, Brighty! I am a perma-bull on this share and believe it will come good in time. But I must confess I have started to get a tad rattled by the persistent share weakness, including the fall back from the spike up to 38p following the recent positive trading statement. So I am asking myself, what is it that the market knows that I don’t know, or what am I overlooking that is weighing on the share price performance? I understand that all online retailers are suffering; that inflation could cut into margins; that higher cost of living could suppress consumer demand; and that the Allianz case is unresolved, etc. I assume that if (if) the Allianz family were to take the company private, the offer would be at a considerable premium to the current price. So what could possibly go wrong? If it’s just a matter of time before the SP rises, I am happy to wait, or even add at these levels.

Has anyone seen a recent article or comment in Investors Chronicle about IG Design? Its last recommendation in July 2020 was Buy at 514p. It should have updated its recommendation following the recent share price fall. Anyway, I tripled my holding In October and feel increasingly hopeful that this was the right decision.

Over the past couple of years or so, BATS has traded in a range 2400/3000 (apart for a couple of months when it stayed over 3000). Now it’s fallen towards the lower end of the range and probably a safe buy at these levels. I confidently expect that sooner or later it will move towards the upper end of the range and you would then be able to sell at around 2800, if you still want to.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/how-short-sellers-short-a-stock/

I managed to get my order filled this morning at 550, which is within a whisker of the mid September low. I’m hoping that recent history repeats itself and we will soon see a fresh challenge of 600.

Allianz would be loading the dice against themselves if they were to antagonize the Court by holding out for an unnecessary and time consuming trial, instead of going for an agreed compromise, which the Court appears to want to encourage.

It’s worth noting that the Court:

“Varied the existing ADR order to provide for the parties to take steps toward Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) before 10 January 2022, in advance of the third CMC”.

It also “vacated (cancelled) the March 2022 trial date.

I read this as meaning that the Court wants the two parties to sort this out through the ADR route. It’s a pretty strong hint that it is looking to them to reach a compromise without the need to waste more of the Court’s time. If I were advising Allianz, I’d be telling them that half a loaf is better than none and that they risk antagonizing the Court by dragging everyone back to a trial in late 2022/23.

But hey what do I know. If fear of this “Sword of Damocles” encourages people to sell down to 40 or below, I’ll be happy to add to my position.