Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
What you mean is I have a different view point from you. If you think Simply Wallstreet who cover thousands of stocks & update them daily & have millions of subscribers is wrong then that is your perogative. The only thing embarrassing is not wanting to weight up the pro's & the cons of an investment. Tunnel vision investing where you only want to hear what you want to hear ie good news is dangerous. I am actually shocked people still invest this way. I said it before and i will say it again can ARS make the promise land? Yes but a lot of things need to align in ARS favour not just a deal with AE. Aim has a history of people loosing money & companies going bankrupt the longer ARS misses deadlines the more the markets get panicky & the 24 hour offer from AE which was supposed to happen is not helping matters. Tony needs to be more careful with his words.
Earnings are forecast to decline 63.3% per year for the next 3 years. Currently unprofitable & not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years. Highly volitile share over the past 3 months & shareholders have been diluted over the past year. Also does not have a meaningful market capitalization - all risks taken from ARS simply wallstreet. ARS have underpormed the UK mining & minerals market in last 12 months. Intrinsic value "but as Asiamet Resources has not provided consistent financial data, and the stock also has no analyst forecast or coverage, its intrinsic value cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst consensus cash flow predictions. This is quite a rare situation as 89% of companies covered by Simply Wall St do have a valuation analysis". "ARS has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering short term liabilities". "ARS has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering long term liabilities".Cash Runway Analysis - "ARS has sufficient cash runway for 1 months based on last reported free cash flow, but has since raised additional capital". "Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 40.9%". Add on to that missed deadlines, Recent article on AE questioning AE integrity, possibly the region ie stability of Indonesia, Currency (so exchange rate shifts). Hope this helps people make their own decisions as to why ARS is down & personally I dont think its down to just AE article or missed deadlines. But one point that stands out to me ARS had 1 months free cash flow before raising additional capital.
For me there seems to be a lack of demand for ARS shares, the volume doesn't seem to be there in a period where its predicted a copper short fall is on the horizon & a potential transorfmational deal with AE That is worrying!!!! Take Tesla for example selling way less cars than anyone else but because shares are scarce & the demand for them is there its blue sky heaven which is why they are valued biggest car manufacturer on the markets. If market sentiment is not there & the volume & demand is not there then a share becomes a value trap. There is no denying the assets ARS have but theres not much love from the market nor the demand to push this higher. I firmly believe that if any deal with AE is done any gains will be short lived & SP will again begin to drift hence I sold. Its so annoying to see people 40% down and i really hope you can atleast make it to 10% down minimum preferable a small profit before having to sell. Having followed ARS since I sold from comments here & more delays to negotiations (Tony expected deal with 24 hours from podcast) I am firmly taking this off my watch list. GLA
I am currently invested in 2 potash / fertilizers stocks. NTR being one & biggest producer of potash/fertiliser in the world. Having done research on potash & the trend aka more people in 5 to 10 years means higher demand. Less land to develop means price over time should rise. BHP billiton are expected to have a potash mine come online in 2025 at a cost of around $25m so that longer term could drive prices slightly down. However these mines being built by majors are expensive exception NTR. Having compared So4 with other potash mines I find the cost is cheaper for So4 due to business model, they have plenty land which is not next to any communities unlike other potash mines or plants so very unlikely there would be any objections from local communities unlike other plants that are in residential areas. Then to top it off there aren't alot of potash companies that import to Australia's i think NTR do but not sure of any others. Australia has very strict customs & border laws with regards to produce & foods so with the need for more potash, more fertilizers & more S04 for food products as the world consumes more So4 is a great defensive play on the market over the longer term. Short term once debt is financung is done & production starts 2021 Q1 the SP will rise. What i further like is the SP is drifting week after week as company are just building what needs built to be operational. Probably one of the safest ain shares on the go right now.
I hope in my heart a deal with AE is made. Tony said he wanted to keep 40% of KSK, whether AE are happy about that remains to be seen. My view is AE holding all the cards. As per Tony on podcast Chinese consortium fell through, didnt sound optimistic of them coming back nor did he mention it but didnt say it wouldn't happen either. The other consortiums Tony was very clear on they wanted to reduce in house costs to save money rather than spend money on new ventures & expand. Tony said that was sector wide, very little investment. Now if a deal with AE doesnt happen your praying to god the Chinese consortium comes back in, that to me is unlikely but lets say they do. They Chinese consortium will hold all the cards they will demand what they want & ARS will have little power to stop them. If AE deal is kiaboshed & the Chinese consortium doesn't come back in then its game over unless Tony pulls a rabbit out of the hat. I don't want to see people loose money so I hope for all still invested there is a fair deal with AE on a 60/40 basis. If a 60/40 deal is agreed this may interest me again on an investment level basis.
No need to take the hump because my view was to sell and you are doubling up. 30 years Mansur has been trying to get copper out of KSK and he hasn't been successful so far. The only hope ARs have left is the verocious AE who have recently hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons which the market appears to be factoring in. No smoke without fire. But hey each to their own hopefully I am wrong but I don't see it that way. Been watching this bb ever since I sold and there has been nothing but moaning & complaints regarding missed deadlines, a bad deal with AE etc.
The more I watch this share price dwindle the more I am convinced I was right to sell at 3.6p. The recent article on AE has done nothing to intice new investment & quite frankly theres no smoke without fire. Proceed with caution.
People post when they sell out so others who they have comunicated with can say goodbye & best of luck. Also some people do listen to people on these bb & invest on what someone's sentiment is. I would not have it on my conscious someone potential buying due to past post when i sold out then they loose money. Obviously each investor should do their own research & invest accordingly. However I do not get why when people sell out people get the hump when they still post on the bb. They can still add value to the bb as they have followed the company. It is like people on these bb only want tunnel vision investing here's all the good points, topped up but if someone sells or points out risks it seems very taboo. These bb are here to share information good & bad to help people out. I have found more positive points on this bb over the years & had i listened to the we will be millionaires by 2020 teir 1 assests JV with a major I would be bankrupt. Anyway if people dont want me to post simply because i sold out I wont. That said heard it all before when I sold at 9p saying it will be back at 1p. Anyway i will leave and bid everyone good luck.
As updo said he has been following KSK for 30 years & those resources are still in the ground. I followed ARS from the start, I listened to the man'sknowledge!. How long does one wait? 30p might never happen & coronavirus has increased the chances of this.
I have re evaluted my portfolio this morning & I am afraid ARS just doesnt make the grade even although they have world class teir 1 assests. Here is why. The deal with AE could be weeks or months away if that is the case sp will likely drift & i can buy in for cheaper should I wish to do so. Even if ARS get a deal with AE they still need to take on debt via banks & there is no guarantee that will happen either. Lets say it does those negotiations will not take days but weeks or months. I don't think the deal with AE being RNS'S if it materialised will have the desired impact on the SP we all are hoping for. For that to happen ARS need a deal with AE & Banks to fully fund KSK mine build. That process although under way is lengthy. Then yes SP will start to move but as I have seen & heard with other mining companies the full re rate of SP appreciation doesn't come until the mine is fully built. These mines can run into difficulties, costs can go up so looking at ARS & when they get into production I think is years away & wont be cash positive in the next 3 years. I for one am not leaving my money sitting doing nothing. Better opportunities out there & when & if ARS are nearer to completed mine build I reckon the SP wont be astronomical compared to today's SP. Even at 30p a share this would be a steal. So back on the watch list & moving on to something new. GLA holding hope you make money.
A deal will take however long it takes.
I am hoping company presentation gives some insight as to how negotiations are proceeding but highly doubt it - price sensitive.
I think patience is the key here. It's make or break. No deal - very bad for ARS
Deal good for ARS - how good depends on the deal.
Best not to rush these things & get it right even if it means short term SP slowly drifts downwards.
If there isn't a deal with AE then I suspect a mass exodus as all other interested parties long gone.
ARS would have to tout for a JV all over again.
Make or break times.
Gaf666. Way I see it if a deal with AE falls through ARS would have to RNS it & update the market no need for company presentation. Tony said AE JV some would be debt financing via banks but couldn't elude to what that would be due to ongoing negotiations with AE. So if you are going to the bank re funding you need an up to date company presentation. The only reason I can see for a company presentation is for 1 of 2 reasons.
1. AE deal agreed internally & now onto banks for financing
2. Just to further raise awareness or ARS & promote the company.
These are just my thoughts on it.
But I am sure if AE deal did not materialise they would RNS it.
Hopefully the presentation raises the SP though.
Seems to me no point in doing a company presentation unless something fundemental has changed unless the BOD are just continuing to promote the company which I support. The only other logical reason to do a company presentation is just before going to banks to see what kind of debt level we can obtain. If the later is the case that would suggest a deal with Auternum Energy has been reached internally. Personally I don't see the point in doing a presentation if a deal with AE has fallen through. So I am actually upbeat about the presentation, that said I did e-mail four questions over for answering in the presentation. Gla
Personally I do not see any conspiracies. I think coronavirus hit whilst in talks with a Chinese consortium and that scuppered that deal. That meant the only deal on the table was AE. AE have in my opinion used that to their advantage. Had coronavirus not hit things would have been better I am sure of it. Just need to back Tony as shareholders & give him a strong a negotiating hand as possible but do agree with previous post re vote against resolution 8.
I have elluded to this before without actually saying it as I didnt really want to but given the post on disconcerting matters I will. It is only opinion but I think the deal AE got 19.9% of company for $3M was daylight robbery. It screams to me ARS needed the money or it was the only company willing to look at a JV. Without that investment ARS goes no where. In other words whilst a deal nay get done it certainly wont be to the shareholders liking. I am going with that motto and anything else is a bonus. I state again Tony and the team have done everything they can to get this up & running and it is no fault of theirs coronavirus hit and put a spanner in the works. The fact ARS are still able to attract investment tells you all you need to know about the assets.
I agree with the post but add that Tony said he expected an offer within 24 hours. I imagine ARS have said offer & are in negotiations with AE. Negotiating takes time & When & If a deal is agreed ARS will let the market know.