focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Where are you going to get the money from to pay a dividend?
I can't see a major giving us say £25m to pay us a 0.2p dividend, they have their share holders interests in mind not FRRs.
I have now reset my expectations regarding a super major. Someone posted yesterday that Zaza had always specified that we were in discussions with industry majors (being industry service majors) and that the two majors involved were Baker Hughes and Schlumberger. This makes sense to me but if we get an oil and gas supermajor to come on board that is extremely happy days, but in my mind I expect a JV deal with Baker Hughes and I would be extremely pleased with that.
Yes Zaza did say super majors at the shareholder meeting, was he over excited about the news and didn't mean to say that? Hopefully there is and a deal will me done. In the pod casts he stated big boys, which Baker Hughes are from a service point of view.
All in all very happy with the progress, it can only be a good thing. Just a reminder of the current oil and gas in the play at the three fields (expected to be revised up):
Taribani:
Oil: 1,033 MMbbl (OOIP) of which 155 MMbbl is recoverable;
Natural Gas: 4.6 TCF (OGIP) of which 3.2 TCF is recoverable.
Mtsarekhevi:
Natural Gas: 8.3 TCF (OGIP) of which 5.8 TCF is recoverable.
Mirzaani:
Oil: 1,110 MMbbls (OOIP) of which 114MMbbls is recoverable
Tsbs, I agree.
Baker Hughes are certainly a major/big boy in the services industry but they are not by any imagination an oil and gas super major.
I think we may have all got carried away by what was said at the shareholder meeting when he was asked are these majors or supermajors and the reply was, "super". Now a supermajor is the top 6 as specified before.
Was this lost in translation or are the supermajors lurking in the background still? Time will tell, but for me having Baker Hughes on board is a massive positive, I am going to lower my expectation around supermajors though, if it happens then an absolute bonus, if not we are still on the right path and are going places.
Onwards and upwards, GLA!
It is absolute nonsense, do not start this kind of thing again.
If this is the final outcome and only a deal with Baker Hughes is done I must say I will be disappointed, saying that I will still be holding and adding when I can.
I will be disappointed because Zaza did state Super majors at the ShareHolder meeting and never corrected anyone everytime super major was said.
Baker Hughes are a service company and they are can in no way be classed as a Super Major.
A super major is the top 6 oil and gas companies in the world and are house hold names.
I am hoping/expecting this is not the last of the news regarding the two NDAs.
I believe this is great news and I cannot believe some people are moaning.
Now Zaza stated two industry majors and yes he did say the word super, but then he could not really say well one is O&G major/supermajor and the other a service company could he!
Additionally this is a MOU, so no you will not get details of a farm-in/JV yet as the deal is still being finalised, this is simply stating they have made an agreement for services and further details need to be agreed so expect further news within the next couple of weeks, maybe days.
Also we still have at least one major/supermajor sniffing around, this may well kick them into touch and may start working together.
I think this is a massive step forward and I would say the deal they agree will rule out any placing that people have been spouting about.
We will probably need to wait for news on the second NDA player before flow rates and technical data is released.
GLA
Maybe, this week is the week.
I really hope and truly believe we will get a deal with one or more majors.
My wife has given up that I will make any money on this share or anything that I do and thinks I just throw away my money.
You have to speculate to accumulate and nothing would give my more pleasure to prove to her that I am right.
I need to SP to get to about 1.2p to be totally debt free (which would please the better half no end), but I am expecting far more greater things.
I do my research and have had bad luck, surely the percentages have to go in my favour once, this time I truely believe I have found a winner.
GLA
CS2, well at the shareholder meeting, Zaza said that Moldova would follow Taribani. We can hope he said that as we will no longer own B12! :-/
Great post CS2, I would tick it up if I wasn’t on my mobile
oh how we like a FRRally on a FRRiday!
And I even made a mistake in that one, having a mare.
I think I will keep quiet for the rest of the day!
FFS me point in telling him again (HT) not me!
lol, I should read posts back before hitting that button
No point in telling me again Timster, he does not listen. One day one of his posts will be correct my chance and I think we all should congratulate him when that happens.
GLA
So if each well produces 1 million barrels in 10 years, that is 100,000 barrels a year.
Say the well is online 350 days of the year that is an average flow rate of 285 bopd
If the 1 million barrels is over 15 years then that equates to 190 bopd
A great couple of interviews, neither contains any new news, just reaffirming what has been said before like each well to produce one million barrels, this was first mentioned in the May presentation.
What we do not know is how many wells will now be produced, but in the last meeting Zaza did mention this would be less than the original 250 wells that was intended.
A sense a deal is very close though (within a couple of weeks) which will include a free carry by a major as stated.
GLA
Personally I’m not reading too much into the interview. I think that he has listened to us PIs and wants to keep the communication going as he knows that some of us get nervous when there is not updates and radio silence. He also knows that others such as TW start smear campaigns. So I just think he is telling us that everything is still on track so hold on to those tickets! News within a couple of weeks imo GLA
Neil22, we don't bother reading that as they talk a load of BS, so many lies are spoken by TW if you had any sense you would know that.
Actually sometimes I do read it for amusement but it is certainly not a place I go to get investment advice, quite the opposite in fact.
I would very much doubt it.
It would need someone to open a case against them.
Good result regarding YA, lowers are monthly cost to them but removes the doubt that we are in default and need to find the balance immediately.
We are getting closer, next RNS to be one of the following imo:
* Outrider update
* AGM date announcment
* Deal with one or more super major
I see a lot of post saying FRR to pay a dividend. Now, I think that this is unlikely, but what a way to get back at the shorters so hope he does as they have to cover the dividend!
If an investor is short a stock on record date, he is not entitled to the dividend. In fact, he is responsible for paying the dividend to the lender of the stock. Investors short a stock if they expect it to decline in value. Shorting a stock is essentially selling it and then buying it back at a future price. If the price falls, there is a profit. If the price rises, there is a loss. The stock needs to be borrowed from a shareholder to sell it without owning it. This process is usually handled by a brokerage firm. There is generally a borrowing fee for the stock depending on its availability and liquidity. Additionally, the borrower of the stock is responsible for paying any dividends.
Shorting stocks is considered risky and appropriate only for sophisticated traders due to the general upward trend of stocks, borrowing costs and the skewed risk-reward nature of shorting. Over time, stocks appreciate as inflation erodes away the value of currencies. Companies, through their business operations, protect against inflation as they are able to pass on rising costs to customers. This is one reason for the general upward trajectory of stock indexes over time.
Borrowing costs can be significant depending on the stock, typically between 2 and 10% annually. Of course, there is the additional cost of paying out dividends. This is a significant drag on returns and compounds the difficulty of the task. Finally, basic math works against short selling as well. A stock can go up by multiples if there is a takeout offer or the company comes out with some innovative product.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042215/if-investor-short-dividendpaying-stock-record-date-are-they-entitled-dividend.asp