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Deffo agree going to be a spike while shorts are closed. Also agree that broader/deeper uncertainty in mid East is a concern.

On the other hand 2020 is election year and Trump will do all he can to keep a lid on petrol prices at the pumps (alternatively may go nuts and start a conflict with the Iranians).

Going to be interesting to see what happens. Hopefully nothing too major, but extra risk for mid East which making Colombia and Amer seem a more attractive is good for us

I'm not so sure will have a massive impact on oil price. Will go up deffo but there's enough supply and in store that OPEC just need to relax the current restrictions. Will help clear some oversupply which is good longer term - think analysts were predicting lower demand for 2020 anyway.

All depends on how long takes to fix and the Saudi reaction.

Algos will limit impact on Amer price, but can't hurt the FSP

Fairly standard set of results with no surprises. Often I've seen companies, before a sale or change in management, try to clear the decks - getting bad news out of the way so can start afresh. Perhaps the excess barrels taken from the government earlier in the year was actually due to manipulation of figures from last year (i.e they had been owed and kept off the books to make last years' figures look better). Anyway, no big shocks came through which is good news.

Results also confirms, what we've known for a while, that ongc are playing silly buggers with Indico2. Has been clear to see this was happening but definitely comes through strongly in this report.

All in all, update on Indico2 would've been good and seen a jump up, but otherwise report is ok. It actually gives me confidence that they are definitely going for a full sale - something most PIs would be quite happy with.

Also, suspect the FSP itself going to cost a bob or two.

Would like to see:

Some effort given to the process rather than rudimentary release
Update on drill plan / seismic
Indico2 to have spudded
Update on third party oba
Cash position same or increased
Some positive comment on FSP

The fact they removed date from the website and then reposted is interesting. Something going on there - decided would be later and then changed back.

With no comment made after Iolar I'm now thinking the deal may hinge on getting approvals for the surveys. Given the pace of this process to date it may push things to mid October

As per jtd response to my earlier post (thanks jtd), there are plenty of potential suitors out there. This will take time, esp., as I suspect, will involve a cash/share offer.

We already have offers and interested parties, so a question of finding the right price. I also think the joint process of Amer and Ironveld suggests either GC or Michinoko want out and hence will be some end result, rather than like Parex.

Btw I'm surprised there has not yet been a manipulation down to 16 yet - to catch stops. When this happens we'll be close to news

I still think that the assets and interested parties are such that will be in the region of 400-600m usd

Same thought has crossed my mind too. However would be, and is, sure fire way to encourage ongc to drag their feet even more. Also means releasing a lot of sensitive data to competitors.

Hoping we get indico2 spud news on Thurs.

Doing a bit of research and came across the link below re Parex process last year. Appears they were looking to flog some of their Llanos assets (including 34) but didn't get any acceptable bids. Might just have been the sheer scale or the price they wanted was too high. Their process took 6 months.

Anyone have more insights on their process?

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/12/18/1669154/0/en/Parex-Concludes-Strategic-Repositioning-Process-and-Announces-Operational-Update-and-Go-Forward-Business-Plan.html

Not much going on while we wait for the interims, so I'll give it a go re the sale price. I think we'll not get news until end of Sept. possibly even into October if there are many competing bids

The Stifel breakdown shared and explained elsewhere on this board provides a good starting point. They have $275m usd for current 1P proven resources, OBA, Oxy commitments and cash in bank. This is based on 1P boe equivalent of $8-9usd. Think this is a fair starting point. Chuck in $120m usd for the Putamayo stuff based on previous Oxy farm outs, then just a case of trying to price the CP05 upside. I'd say conservatively $75-100m.

That comes to around $500m usd or 33p per share. Could obviously go a lot higher if competitive bids. Can't see it going for less than 30p and we could possibly end up with a pleasant surprise higher.

Think this is new. All part of the process and explains why opening up the Putamayo is so slow.

Does at least indicate that we've been doing the seismic! If there are results from some of this will surely be a factor in the sale

Anyone know how our JORC compares with that of Bluejay's?

Ongc taking on debt for possible investments...

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/ongc-to-borrow-2-billion-through-unique-overseas-debt-programme

Delaying the interim makes sense as is a lot of work and sure they have plenty to do at the moment. Simple matter of priorities.

Suggests that they will delay till month end - also that they think the sale process will conclude in sept too

Mmmm. Fishy

New tender on ONCC for guards on CP05. Open the doc in windows and the tab reads "Are you surprised?" Mmmmmm

Seems it's a good day for a Turing test. Or ******ed cut and pasting. I recommend a day on Google.

Usually a good sign when we see these kind of things. Someone, somewhere wants some shares!

Today's 1m trade indicates on lse that it was both 'delayed' and 'historical'. Not sure how long after making a trade that they have to be reported?

AIM site also shows all trades happening off book. Some shenanigans going on me thinks

Irrespective of the Iolar news, have to say the late 1m trades the past couple of days are very interesting. Let's see how this plays out over the next few weeks.

Selling half the stake now would be sufficient to keep our projects moving forward. Or will be a sell part cash/equity