Member Info for 44RJ

Good to know Dai2belts. I've not kept a close enough eye on this share over the past 6 months or so, so I'm a bit out of touch. I had in my head that HE1 was going to go down the oil and gas drill route this time to make doubly sure of a discovery.
If you're right, and I'm sure that you are, that vastly reduces the risk of a dilution pre drill. Dilution was the only concern for me. I already have a small holding and now plan to add between now and the drill.

Hi Latorre, there was $9.7M in the coffers as at December 2021, which sounds like a healthy chunk. That will have eroded a bit by now - by how much is anyone's guess. A land rig drilling for oil and gas can cost in the order of, say, $15M depending on depth etc. It sound to me that HE1 aren't going to cheap out this time with a small rig, and have secured an O&G type set up. That won't come cheap. There may be a deal to be done as part payment, such as offing a stake in the project (I recall such an arrangement was negotiated with the previous drilling company) but DM has not mentioned that so far.
I guess that a dilution cannot be ruled out at the moment unless DM comes out and says they have enough cash in the bank to fund the drill. Very happy to be proven wrong.

Good interview from David there - really encouraging. I have every confidence that drilling will happen early 2023. The only thing that I would like more clarity on is the financial position. I assume that HE1 has enough cash in the bank to fund the drill. Is that correct? Or is a small dilution on the cards?

The board is still maintaining its tactic that attack is the best form of defence. No real effort has been made to compromise. No contrition offered, just a stoic defence which will probably further antagonise the shareholders.

The thing that's missing from their argument to my mind is a forecast of asset purchases. If they said "look, we're on the cusp of acquiring a portfolio of 10 AD plants" then perhaps the shareholders could get behind that and back down a bit. The strategy is so vague, and past performance has been so poor, that no wonder the shareholders have reservations.

yeah that was weird.

They have just uploaded it to the website. Go to the "Investors" section, then to the "Circulars" section (I think).
Why they couldn't upload it on time this morning is beyond me.

I wasn't going to post for obvious reasons but...

"The Board acknowledges that the Investing Policy targets a different risk-reward profile to the one which may have
attracted certain investors to the Company in the past. However, other investment options are available for shareholders seeking that form of risk/reward in exploration/appraisal assets in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Tanzania."

So basically they are saying "sell up and s*d off" if you want to invest in an exciting share.... Nice.

Just to add, we also haven't had the rub of the green over the years. Lady luck has not been kind to Scirocco. Imagine a parallel universe where;
- Kiliwani didn't dry up
- the "back to back" drill straight after NT2 was completed
- the OneDyas deal went through
- Helium One declared a discovery at the first drilling attempt.
- etc...
The potential here has been absolutely huge, but it just never seemed to be able to get off the ground. Such a shame but hey ho.
There has been two times during my holding of these shares when the SP has gone ballistic; the Horse Hill drill and the Ntorya 2 drill. Both events were genuinely exciting. The biggest disappointment for me is not hanging around for the CH1 drill which history tells me will be another catalyst for a significant SP rise, in accordance with the others. The BoD's attempt to try and spin its deal as "upside" really sounded disingenuous to me which is a large part of my reasoning. When the excitement goes so does the desire to stay invested.

Thanks BigDouble. Yes I was in two minds about hanging around as, ultimately, I'm sure that there will be brighter days ahead for SCIR from this point in time (it can't get much worse, that's for damn sure). I do look forward to keeping tabs on this with the potential to return once the future is more clear.
GLA

Thanks Mrc, I've topped up at Aminex with the meagre proceeds from my SCIR sale.

Well, I took the decision today to cut my losses on SCIR and attempt to claw back elsewhere. Sadly I am no longer a shareholder. Not an easy decision, especially with the SP where it is. However, I just cannot see this BoD making a success of this company over the short to medium term. I could be wrong (and I hope I am for the remaining LTHs) but I just don't feel that the leadership team has our best interests at heart. In addition, I cannot forgive the relinquishment of the primary asset for such a low price.
I've really enjoyed being a part of this community of late and the various discussions have almost always been stimulating and engaging (yours too Mrc!). I'll still keep an eye on SCIR going forward; mainly because it's like a daily routine for me to be honest! And who knows, if the tide should change I may even reinvest when conditions are right.
All the very best to one and all and keep supporting BigDouble in his efforts.

Hi Steve " ...supportive of Scirocco's ongoing exposure to the success case of the project..."

I completely agree with you. This is just absurd spin. How can there be any upside when you invest £25M into a project and then realise a maximum of $16M. It is nothing but a downside case.

Haggis - "You're totally clueless. They have a deal with ARA that goes on for YEARS, stop talking bulls*** just because you lost money. As per the below, the deal income continues well into 2024 you diot."

There is no guarantee of SCIR receiving the full $16M. This will drip through over the next 5 years if we're lucky. History tells us that achieving project milestones takes WAY longer that expected. Its taken 12 years to drill two wells and complete some seismic for heavens sake. The market is unlikely to price in the full $16M at this stage. More likely is that it will price it in as the staged payments are realised. We will get $3M in December most likely and that is that for now.

This deal is terrible and is highly unlikely to be transformative for SCIR. I consider this deal to be $3M only and effectively just keeps the lights on and the consultancy invoices settled. Please don't spout delusions of multi bag re-rates on this public forum, as its not fair to new investors reading your posts as they won't understand the history of what they are getting involved with.

Great Haggis, so an SP of about 1p you think. I need 5p to break even. Great return after 10 years of investment.

Blimey, I got that wrong. WEN has simultaneously lost the deal and has surged over 8% gain today - go figure!

Wentworth is up a bit today - I wonder if the pendulum swung back towards them on the Ruvuma deal?

Completely agree Steve. I remember when Solo used to trade reasonably consistently with a market cap of £20M, many years ago, prior to this lot taking control. I always thought that that seemed an appropriate level for the asset and the stage of the Ruvuma project. The new board could then have done one of two things; either batten down the hatches and wait for monetisation from a position of financial strength (like AEX), or go for gold and enter new markets with complex deal structures and expensive consultancy costs.
As the BoD was ****y it opted for the second option unfortunately. They know they have screwed everything up as you say, but would never admit it. The cardinal sin that they have committed in my view is that they were not in a position to walk away from the bad WEN deal. They had to take it through gritted teeth, which WEN used against them. In any negotiation you have to be prepared to walk away is the deal stacked against you - our board engineered it such that they didn't have that luxury and, hey presto, a sub £2M market cap is what results.
Fine work gentlemen...

Exactly right highlandmatt. Why not wax lyrical about the asset when you think you have a leadership team committed to realising full value from the flagship asset (as we were told via several RNS). Cperkin only bailed when it came to light that the leadership team did not have that commitment when it announced a deal for a very disappointing $3M.
There's a lot of in-fighting and mud slinging on this board at the moment, but the only real fight we should be having is with the board of directors.

Highland, so short term you’re saying an SP of 0.5p which is probably about right I think.

Mrc, I do take your point on the winding up of SCIR and placing the $16M into some sort of trust or limited company for distribution to the shareholders. That idea might have legs, but the problem is that almost none of the LTH's will recover their investments.
856,000,000 (shares in issue at the moment)
£13,580,000 ($16M expressed as Sterling)
= 1.6p per share.
Not exactly life changing and would take years to filter through. I think it would be better to either stop this deal (I know I know massively difficult…) or let another management team have a crack at adding value with asset purchases.

Either way we're picking over the scraps when we should be enjoying what Aminex are enjoying at the moment.

agreed Cperkin