Member Info for 10gordon10

Ah stocks, thats the first time I have heard you mention the possibility of a fall. Well done!

For a junior miner with a good discovery but not yet in production, a drop in the metal price has a large negative effect on the project’s NPV—and often the effect is outsized compared to the size of the price drop.

Juniors Need a High Price Long Enough to Reach Production. A producing mine can survive cycles more easily, but a non-producing junior, burns cash, relies on sentiment and must prove long-term price assumptions.

A 12% price drop typically results in a 25–50% reduction in NPV for a pre-production junior, because operating costs do not fall, margins compress much faster than price, discount rates amplify the hit on reduced future cash flows, capex payback takes longer. So the effect is 2–4× larger than the price drop. Typical outcome for a 12% metal price drop, NPV down 25–50%.

The market couldnt give a flying fk about what you or I say or do. If the Tungsten price falls tomorrow, so will SML.

Stocks, I am here to make money from any rise in SML. BUT I am a realist and there are many factors that may reduce that profit. I am concerned that many here are not considering anything else but a rise.

It's not inevitable, its not for sure. As I have said, good news will increase the SP, not by as much as is being hyped, and it will be short-term. Bad or mediocre news will take it to under 1p.

Continuous good drill results, conveyed to the market over time, is what I am looking for, but I am ready to move fast to lock in profits, because I have considered both the best and worst scenarios. I have also, like a couple of posters here, derisked during the last rise.

Buying on hype and pure speculation will make no money for the ever hopefull punter. It will make the professional players whom post on these boards a lot of money.

Your in charge of your money stocks, you do what you feel is best for you.

The Chinese have the power to manipulate the tungsten market short or long term. They could flex Political and economic power intended to damage and disrupt markets. A major driver of recent tungsten price strength is China’s export licensing and restrictions. If China loosens or removes some of these controls, more supply could flow out, increasing global availability and reducing tightness. That could quickly push prices down.

It's all well and good for hyper rampers to point out the ever-increasing tungsten price, but others need to consider what this may mean when/if the price retraces.

Because NPVs at the discovery stage are almost entirely price-driven, even small metal price drops can wipe out most of the modeled value.

A price drop can cut NPV by 50–100% or more for a discovery-stage project (PEA-level or pre-PEA):

A 10% drop in metal price often reduces NPV by 30–50%

A 20% drop can reduce NPV by 50–80%

A 30% drop can eliminate NPV entirely or drive it negative

This is because: Costs (mining, processing, capex) don’t fall when metal price falls

Margins compress dramatically

Discounting wipes out late-year cash flows

Certain price points flip the model into “not economically viable”

When a junior is still pre-production, its NPV is based on exploration results + conceptual economic models, not cash flow. NPV is almost entirely driven by long-term metal price assumptions. And no one here is considering a price drop!

Stocky, I think you mean you miss the days when you had no counter argument to your constant repetitive boring ramping hype. Designed entirely to line your own pockets.

You will have to work harder, perhaps find some new material to push.

Still no real news on the results, so we will remain stagnant until news. In fact we are less today than when I first posted. Sorry to prove the rampers so wrong.

Another great prediction by your favourite investment guru. Follow and Like.

10gordon10, hes right agen.

8.37am "Not great news yesterday, but not bad either. But people will be de-risking and taking profits today."

Another great and correct prediction from your favourite stock guru. A red day despite the best efforts of the repetitive ramping team.

Your balanced long-term holder,

10gordon10

Till I see you agen.

Al I said was its going to be a red day today, my opinion and based on past events and experience.

Look at the replies, all from desperate rampers so unsure of themselves that they have to post the same old drivell every ten mins.

Have you all absolutely no confidence in your decisions or are you spread betting?

Al I said was its going to be a red day today, my opinion and based on past events and experience.

Look at the replies, all from desperate rampers so unsure of themselves that they have to post the same old drivell every ten mins.

Have you all absolutely no confidence in your decisions or are you spread betting?

Bluegrass. wrong, your another one guessing and prepared to lie to further your own agenda. And I liked you, shame.

I hope so Miner, I am a shareholder, just fed up with all the hyper ramper traders ruining this board with the same post every 10 mins.

Spread betting or CFD's?

Stocks you hark on about the tungsten price, every 10 minutes, we all know what happens when a commodity hits a high for a period of time. Yep it falls.

Just like SML today.

Pinguser5, a very frightened holder.

Stocksnstuff, take a look at his posting history, 10 a day, total one sided ramping for weeks. Say no more.

Im not biased either way, unlike you and your friends!

Guly, Im right so far 7% down.

Guly the person who posts every 20 minutes. Seems sort of desperate and insecure ramping.

Jdubya, your just guessing there and lying. Shows a lot of desperation and fear from you.

Stocks n stuff, you gotta take the rough with the smooth. Its not all up up up, especially with the blatant ramping going on here, it turns real investors away, no one trusts a ramper who posts every half hour.

Not great news yesterday, but not bad either. But people will be de-risking and taking profits today.

IMHO DYOR

Had a beer or two Gully? Come on , ramp it up properly, tungsten prices to quadruple by Feb 26.

Blue, if was deliberately choosing words in my header to be negative, I would have written

FALLING UNTIL NEWS.

Come on, think about it.

I'm a realist, you're a ramper.