Shell forecasts mostly steady fourth-quarter production

(Alliance News) - Shell PLC on Thursday said it expects to report stable or increasing production figures for the fourth quarter of 2025.

Shares in Shell were 2.0% lower at 2,601.50 pence each in London on Thursday morning.

The London-based oil and gas exploration company projects fourth-quarter integrated gas production between 930,000 and 970,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, against 934,000 boepd in the third quarter.

It also expects liquefied natural gas (LNG) liquefaction volumes of 7.5 million to 7.9 million tonnes, up from 7.3 million in the third quarter, and for trading & optimisation to be "in line" with the third quarter.

Shell expects to report fourth-quarter upstream production of 1.84 million to 1.9 million boepd, up from 1.83 million. It said the fourth-quarter outlook includes the impact of the December incorporation of Adura, its North Sea oil-focused joint venture with Equinor ASA.

Marketing sales volumes are seen as "seasonally lower" at 2.7 million to 2.75 million barrels per day, down quarter-on-quarter from 2.82 million.

Shell added that it expects marketing adjusted earnings to be down compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, "reflecting a (non-cash) deferred tax adjustment in a joint venture". It also forecasts "a significant loss" in adjusted earnings for its Chemicals sub-segment for the same reason.

In its Chemicals & Products segment, Shell projects a USD14 per barrel indicative refining margin, up from USD12 per barrel, with the indicative chemicals margin reducing to USD140 per tonne from USD160 per tonne.

"The Chemicals & Products segment adjusted earnings is expected to be below break-even in Q4'25," Shell stated, adding that it expects trading & optimisation "to be significantly lower than Q3'25".

By Emma Curzon, Alliance News reporter

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