LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Scotland's leader Humza Yousaf faces a no-confidence vote expected next week, which could imperil more than a decade of governance by the Scottish National Party (SNP) and set back its dreams of independence from Britain.
Yousaf said on Friday he is confident he will win the vote in the Scottish parliament. Following are details about the vote and its implications for Scotland.
WHY IS THERE A NO CONFIDENCE VOTE?
Yousaf, who leads the centre-left, pro-independence SNP and holds the post of first minister in Scotland's devolved administration, announced on Thursday that he was terminating a three-year-old coalition with the Scottish Greens, after a dispute over his government's decision to scrap an environmental target.
Yousaf said he intended to lead a minority SNP administration until the next elections, scheduled for 2026.
However, opposition parties including the Greens and the main UK-wide parties, the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats, said they would seek to move or support motions of no confidence in Yousaf and his government.
HOW WILL ANY NO CONFIDENCE MOTION WORK?
The Conservatives have said they would move a motion of no confidence in Yousaf as first minister, while Labour is proposing a no-confidence motion against the government itself.
If a motion carries against the government, a new election would be called. If a motion carries against Yousaf, he would be expected to resign but parliament could avert a new election by selecting a replacement as first minister within 28 days.
Any vote is likely to be razor-close in the 129-seat Scottish parliament, where the SNP has 63 seats and the Conservatives, Labour, Greens and Liberal Democrats hold 64 seats between them.
One seat belongs to the presiding officer, who is expected to vote for the status quo in a tie. So the deciding vote could well be cast by Ash Regan - Yousaf's former SNP leadership opponent, who left the SNP and sits as the sole member for Alba, a rival nationalist group that rejects the SNP's progressive agenda.
HOW DID THE SNP GET HERE?
The crisis marks a stunning fall for the SNP, who have dominated Scottish politics for more than a decade.
The party achieved majority government in 2011, leading to a 2014 independence referendum.
Though Scots voted 'No' to independence by 55% to 45%, the SNP consolidated 'Yes' supporters to win 56 of 59 Scottish seats in the UK parliament in 2015, making them Britain's third-biggest party despite standing in fewer than a tenth of UK seats.
Under leader Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP opposed Brexit at a 2016 referendum, a popular position in Scotland even though the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU. The party has continued to push for a second independence referendum.
In coalition with the Greens, the SNP has promoted progressive environmental and social policies, notably alienating some traditionalists and feminists with plans to relax rules for legal recognition of gender transitions.
Sturgeon resigned last year and has since become embroiled in a party funding scandal with her husband, who was charged this month with embezzling funds. Both deny wrongdoing.
When Yousaf replaced her, he was widely seen as a continuity candidate. But some SNP lawmakers have questioned the progressive priorities of the party under Sturgeon and Yousaf.
From the left, the Scottish Greens criticised Yousaf for yielding to "reactionary forces" in his party by abandoning the coalition agreement.
WHAT DO YOUSAF'S TROUBLES MEAN FOR ELECTIONS AND INDEPENDENCE? With the SNP's popularity sliding, a YouGov poll in April put Labour ahead of the SNP for a UK election for the first time since 2014.
A UK-wide general election must be held within the next nine months. If the SNP loses seats either in the Scottish or UK parliaments, it could undermine further the party's efforts to gain a mandate for a second independence referendum.
Opinion polls show a fairly static picture in appetite for independence, with the YouGov poll finding 53% of voters would reject independence and 47% would support it. (Reporting by Alistair Smout)