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LIVE MARKETS-Follow the pasta!

Mon, 16th Mar 2020 09:56

* FED interest cut fails to impress

* STOXX 600 down 7.7%

* FTSE down 6.4%

* Shares in holiday operator TUI plummet 30%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters
stocks reporters. You can share your thoughts with Thyagaraju Adinarayan
(thyagaraju.adinarayan@thomsonreuters.com), Joice Alves (joice.alves@thomsonreuters.com) and
Julien Ponthus (julien.ponthus@thomsonreuters.com) in London.

FOLLOW THE PASTA! (0947 GMT)

With all these empty shelves of pasta across supermarkets across Europe, food retailers are
seen as an essential area of the economy for the foreseeable future.

While cafes and restaurants are shutting down across continental Europe, households will
need to cook from home probably more than they did before the virus outbreak.

"A widespread, Italy-like lockdown would not dent European grocers' FC or earnings
attractions", Jefferies' analysts argue.

They upgrade AholdDelhaize, Sainsbury and Carrefour to Buy, Colruyt to Hold.

Tesco, Morrisons and Jeronimo are reiterated at Buy, Casino and Ocado at Underperform, and
Metro at Hold.

Here's their picks in the sector:

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

EUROPE'S FEAR INDEX HAS NEVER BEEN THIS SPOOKED (0922 GMT)

'Europe's fear index' has never been this spooked. The volatility gauge for euro-zone stocks
has hit a high of 88.73 points against 87.88 on October 16, 2008.

Clearly, last night's coordinated monetary bazooka salvo has failed to reassure markets
about the economic damage the coronavirus health crisis is unleashing on the world.

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

EUROPEAN STOCKS SINK TO 2013 LEVELS, AIRLINES FALL (0822 GMT)

European stocks markets fell between 4% and 5% at the open but have quickly passed the 6%
since.

As expected, airlines and travel operators are taking another huge hit due to the travel
restrictions imposed all over the world.

TUI is losing 26%, Easyjet and BA owner ICAG are both down 20%.

The travel and leisure sector as a whole is down a dramatic 12%.

The coordinated monetary stimulus offered by the Fed, the ECB and other central banks last
night were no game changers.

That's visible with the banking sector down 6.4%, so more than the average despite the
massive hike in liquidity offered by monetary policy makers.

The oil and gas sector is also under pressure Brent crude price falling as the price war
between top producers adds to a growing supply glut.

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

"WE EXPECT THE MARKET TO END THE YEAR AT MUCH HIGHER LEVELS THAN TODAY" (0755 GMT)

There's a big demand for optimism these days so here's at least one positive headline
extracted from the morning note of Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth
Management.

"Broad fiscal spending and rate cuts are blunt instruments for dealing with the short-term
economic impact of the virus, but should provide investors with some confidence that growth can
be strong once the recovery gets underway. We expect the market to end the year at much higher
levels than today, with China's economy leading the way to recovery and the US and European
economies rebounding in the third quarter."

Other morning notes are way more gloomy obviously but there's no harm in having an
optimistic blog post from time to time!

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

ON THE RADAR: FUTURES FALL DEEPER, AIRLINES ON THE FRONT LINE (0738 GMT)

European stock markets are expected to open sharply in the red this morning as last night’s
monetary salvo failed to calm markets down.

U.S. futures have already hit their down limit and Europe's are falling way over 5% at the
moment.

Airlines, airports and any hospitality group are going to be badly hit as Europe and parts
of the U.S. start imposing new travel restrictions and lock downs.

EasyJet said it could ground the majority of its fleet as people stopped travelling and is
calling for coordinated government backing to help (save?) the aviation industry.

Same call from travel operator TUI which said it would suspend most of its operations, scrap
its outlook and apply for state aid.

Still in the industry, French airports group ADP is considering closing down some areas in
its main Paris airports.

The access to massive liquidity in dollars might help banks and financial services in the
short term in comparison but this is the worst time to be single out for a bank.

Credit Suisse Group AG's alleged role in a $2 billion Mozambique corruption case might weigh
further on the shares of the bank.

Signs of the wider long term hit to the economy is Volkswagen preparing to suspend
operations at its manufacturing plant in Bratislava.

Another strong signal was LVMH preparing its perfume production site to manufacture
antibacterial gel instead of perfume.

There are loads of other examples of hints on the pain to come with for instance Swedish
home appliance maker Electrolux which sees a considerable risk of a "material" financial hit in
the first six months of 2020.

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

'I LOVE THE SMELL OF MMT IN THE MORNING!' (0657 GMT)

Credit to Rabobank strategist Michael Every for this headline inspired by the famous line of
Lieutenant Colonel Kilgore in Francis Ford Coppola's Apocalypse now.

What's the next step for central banks if last night's drastic action doesn't work is on
everybody's mind.

The bank's global strategist argues in his morning note that we're an war-like situation and
that the real issue is dealing with the virus not the economic fallout.

"Even the jaw-dropping concept of the central banks and governments making everyone whole
until this crisis passes, with all the equally mind-bending socio-economic and socio-political
implications, is not the real battle. The real battle is the virus. Even helicopter money would
just be palliative to keep can-kicking until we can kick the virus", he writes.

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

FALL OF WALL STREET FUTURES WEIGHS ON THE OPEN (0637 GMT)

The fact that U.S. stock index futures hit their daily down limit after the Fed and central
banks around the world announced a dramatic coordinated salvo of monetary stimulus is keeping
European investors on their toes.

Even if this was a major policy move, it seems markets are expecting more to come and not
ready to steady before there's more visibility on the epidemic slowing down.

"We still think there is more to come in terms of policy easing (fiscal, liquidity,
supervisory and monetary) in other countries, but even the US", wrote Ebrahim Rahbari at Citi.

"And we still do not expect even these major measures to durably support asset prices as
long as credit and health concerns escalate", he added.

Below, U.S. futures at their limit down levels:

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

MORNING CALL: EUROPE IN THE RED DESPITE ECB, FED EMERGENCY MOVE (0616 GMT)

European futures are currently trading in the red despite the emergency coordinated move by
the ECB, the Fed and other central banks to reassure markets with a comprehensive package to
soften the damage of the coronavirus epidemic.

EUROSTOXXX 50 futures are down 3.7%, its -3.9% for the DAX and 3% for the FTSE derivatives.

Financial spreadbetters also predict sharp losses for London, Paris and Frankfurt at the
open.

(Julien Ponthus)

*****

(Reporting by Joice Alves, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)

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