* Volkswagen near 2016 highs ahead of next week's earnings
* Analysts turn more positive on the stock
* BP, Olympus remained well below pre-crisis levels, oneyear on
* Graphic: when blue chips stumble http://reut.rs/1NULzZP
* Graphic: Volkswagen performance vs peers http://reut.rs/1Uaad5J
By Alistair Smout
LONDON, May 27 (Reuters) - Volkswagen shares arenear their 2016 high and valuations have rebounded after lastyear's emissions scandal but experience of previous corporatecrises suggests a full recovery will take time.
With first-quarter earnings due on Tuesday, shares in theGerman automaker are up more than 50 percent from lows hit inOctober following revelations that it had cheated dieselemissions tests.
A U.S. judge said on Tuesday that Volkswagen had madesubstantial progress toward reaching a final settlement with carowners and the U.S. government, for which the company has setaside $18 billion while warning the bill could rise.
But the history of corporate crises -- including MichaelWoodford's 2012 ouster from Olympus and BP's Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010 -- suggests Volkswagen could befeeling the effects of "Dieselgate" for a long time to come.
Eight months after evidence of Volkswagen's rule-breakingemerged, its share price has caught up with some peers, butanalysts warn the firm is not out of the woods yet.
"It will take years to recover, in terms of the stock price,sorting out all the fines, and the reputation. Analysts arestruggling to assess what the damage actually is, as there'sstill a steady corrosive drip-drip of news," said Mike Ingram,market analyst at BGC Partners.
"Yes, they've bumped up their provisions, but you have towonder whether they're prepared for a moderately bad outcome,let alone a "worst-case" scenario."
Shares in both BP and Olympus remained below pre-crisislevels a year after their respective scandals broke andVolkswagen shares are still some 20 percent below theirearly-September level.
A Reuters poll expects operating profit to fall 17 percentwhen the carmaker reports first quarter earnings next week.
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
There are signs, however, that investors are beginning totake a more positive view of the stock. The higher share pricehas also restored VW's valuation to its five-year median of 7.3times forward earnings, in line with the sector average.
Rather than being deterred by this higher valuation, someanalysts are raising their own ratings on the stock, havingslashed them in the aftermath of the crisis.
Analysts are more optimistic than at any time since thescandal first broke last September, with only five "sell"ratings on the stock and three "strong sells", according toThomson Reuters Eikon data.
That is the lowest number of analysts to hold a sell ratingon VW in eight months, although there were no more than fivesell ratings on the stock at any time in the 12 months beforethe scandal and no analyst rated it a sell in August 2014.
Analyst Klaus Breitenbach at Baader Bank in Frankfurt liftedhis rating on Volkswagen to "hold" from "sell" this week, citingthe progress made in reaching a deal with the U.S. authorities.
"It will be a relief for the investor community if there isa settlement in the United States and we know the final number(including potential fines and how many cars will be fixed orrepurchased)," he said.
He remains cautious on the outlook for the stock, however,warning that further losses from the scandal are possible evenafter the final cost of U.S. fines and compensation is tallied.
"I'm not sure if I could become positive on the stock ...because even if they settle in the U.S., there is still a riskin what's happening outside ... That risk is still there,"Breitenbach said.
(Graphics by Vikram Subhedar and Alistair Smout; Editing byCatherine Evans)
BP (BP.)
