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Growth on the mat vs Value

Mon, 16th May 2022 17:51

May 16 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

GROWTH ON THE MAT VS VALUE (1350 EDT/1750 GMT)

It's been one rough 2022 so far for growth vs value. In fact, as stands, growth is on track for its worst year relative to value ever.

The S&P 500 Growth index / S&P 500 Value Index ratio is down around 18.5% so far this year, which is a bigger slide than the 17.7% drop for all of 2001. The 2001 drop came in the wake of the Y2K tech bubble bursting, and stands as the worst full-year decline for growth vs value based on Refinitiv data back to 1996:

In April, growth suffered its worst monthly decline vs value since February 2001.

And as of Friday's close, growth has declined relative to value for six-straight weeks. With further weakness so far on Monday, the ratio is now on pace to fall for seventh-straight week, which would be its longest such run of losses since October-December 2016.

Tech, at more than 40% of the weighting in the SPDR S&P 500 Growth ETF, will likely need to get back on its feet in order to turn the tide.

Of note, tech is also on pace to fall for a seventh-straight week, which would be its longest weekly streak of losses since a 9-week run in September-November 2012.

Meanwhile, potentially on the plus side, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield, after hitting a high of 3.2030% earlier in the May, has now retreated to test support at 2.84% in the form of what was a long-term monthly resistance line - click here:

The yield falling back below this broken resistance line, and then the 200-month moving average, now around 2.65%, may serve to alleviate some of the recent growth share multiple contraction.

UP, UP AND AWAY: AIRFARES TAKE OFF, AIRLINE STOCKS REMAIN GROUNDED (1235 EDT/1635 GMT)

Last Wednesday, the Labor Department's much anticipated CPI report suggested inflation might have peaked. But one line item was an attention-grabber: the 18.6% jump in airline fares last month.

Cowen Equity Research provided more up-to-the-minute data in its Fare Tracker note on Sunday, which showed minimum business and leisure fares rose 0.8% and 2.2%, respectively, in just a week.

Year-over-year, business fares have surged 68.8%, and 31.4% for leisure travelers.

"Demand is strong, but there are fewer seats to sell (due to) delivery delays, aircraft retirement," says Helane Becker lead analyst at Cowen Equity Research.

"What you're seeing is very strong demand with a decided lack of seats to sell," Hecker adds. "That results in strong pricing."

The Transportation Safety Administration's (TSA) data on passenger throughput shows that just shy of 2.4 million domestic travelers took off their shoes, emptied their pockets and skulked through airport security on Sunday May 15.

Here's how that number stacks up against the same weekday over the last three years:

2021        + 29.5%
2020 +844.0%
2019 -8.6%

As for airline stocks, widely seen as a canary in the COVID coal mine, they have seen their share of turbulence so far this
year, though they are faring better than the broader S&P 500
index.

The S&P 1500 Airlines index is down about 8.7% so far this year vs the S&P 500 which is off about 16% over this
same time period.

However, the airline index is down about 8.2% since April 18, when the Biden administration announced it would no longer
enforce mask requirements on public transportation in the wake
of a federal judge's ruling that such requirements were
unlawful.

The graphic below shows the TSA throughput data against the SPCOMAIR, along with monthly changes in the air fare component
of CPI.

It could suggest that rising ticket prices are weighing on traffic as it tries to reclaim pre-COVID altitude, while airline
stocks fail to find much lift.

THE BRONX IS UP BUT THE BATTERY'S DOWN: EMPIRE STATE HEADS SOUTH (1053 EDT/1453 GMT)

Factory activity in New York State unexpectedly contracted this month, according to the New York Federal Reserve.

The NY Fed's Empire State index plunged 37.2 points to a reading of -11.6 for April, defying the decelerated
expansion analysts expected.

A negative Empire State reading signals a pull-back of activity from the previous month.

But while the critical "new orders" and "current business conditions" components both sank below the zero line, the report
wasn't entirely grim.

The "employment" category returned to expansion territory, and the "six month outlook" ticked higher. But perhaps most
encouragingly, the "prices paid" element fell 12.7 points to
73.7, in yet another hopeful sign inflation could be cooling
down.

Although other business surveys, including the national-level purchasing managers' indexes (PMI) from the
Institution for Supply Management and IHS Markit suggested the
global supply chain might be on the mend, developments such as
the Russia-Ukraine war and new COVID shutdowns in China have
tossed a monkey wrench into the works.

"Unfilled orders fell 15.7 points to 2.6, the lowest since January 2021, but delivery times dipped only 1.6 points and
remain elevated," writes Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at
Pantheon Economics. "But these data could still worsen again as
the full hit from disruptions in China work through."

What's more, Shepherdson sees input prices resuming their uphill climb in the coming months "given the rebound in oil,
gasoline and diesel prices."

A fuller picture on the state of Atlantic region manufacturing will be provided by the Philly Fed on Thursday.

Wall Street had a case of the Mondays in mid-morning trade, with all three major U.S. stock indexes on the downside.

Consumer discretionary and chips are leading the charge lower.

RED RETURNS (1014 EDT/1414 GMT)

Major U.S. indexes are red but off earlier lows on Monday as investors digest downbeat data out of China amid worries over a global economic slowdown and aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.

China's economic activity cooled sharply in April as widening COVID-19 lockdowns took a heavy toll on consumption, industrial production and employment. That said, the China Large-Cap ETF is off just slightly so far, and holding to a 13%-gain off its March intraday trough.

After Friday's more than 2% S&P 500 rally, traders will be looking for upside follow-through. So far, however, it's sorely lacking, with most major SPX sectors down on the day.

Going into the week, not only has the Dow fallen seven-straight weeks, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both off six-weeks in a row.

DOW INDUSTRIALS: HASN'T DONE THIS IN 90 YEARS! (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Friday down for a seventh-straight week, which is its longest weekly losing streak since May-July 2001.

If the Dow were to end this week in the red, it will be its longest run of weekly losses in a row since the Great

Depression!

Using Refinitiv data from 1896, in addition to last week, the blue-chip average has fallen seven-weeks in a row just five other times: July-August 1907, January-February 1968, April-May 1970, January-February 1973, and February-March 1980.

The Dow has ended down more than seven-straight weeks just two times in its history: eight-straight weeks in March-May 1932 and nine-weeks in a row in March-May 1923.

The Dow, of course, could decline again this week for an eighth-straight time, matching the 1932 streak. That said, historically, its losing streak appears especially stretched, making it ripe for at least some respite.

Meanwhile, the blue-chip average ended Friday at its lowest level on a weekly basis since early-March 2021, but at its most oversold since the March 2020 pandemic-panic bottom:

FOR MONDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300 GMT

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