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Broker tips: Kaz Minerals, CRH, EasyJet, Ryanair

Wed, 02nd Nov 2016 15:24

(ShareCast News) - Peel Hunt downgraded Kaz Minerals to 'hold' from 'add' after its third-quarter production report but upped the price target to 275p from 200p as it took a look at the copper sector.It noted the shares are up 30% in the last month and 180% in the year to date."While Kaz Minerals is likely to see strong EBITDA growth in 2017 and 2018 irrespective of the copper price move, in the short term we believe the shares have run too far."In addition, Peel said the shares are pricing in much of its anticipated upside in copper prices over the next two to three years.The brokerage cut its 2016 copper price estimates slightly, with its spot forecast now at $4,760 per tonne compared to 4,836 previously.Peel Hunt nudged up its price target on hold-rated Antofagasta to 580p from 575p, saying the weaker cable rate offsets lower volumes and a lower target multiple. It left its rating unchanged as the shares look close to fair value.The brokerage said Atalaya and Central Asia Metals remain its copper 'buy' ideas. It trimmed its target price on Atalaya to 175p from 180p due to lower copper prices, but lifted its target on Central Asia to 245p from 225p, pointing out that the cash flows backing the dividends are US dollar-denominated. CRH was given a boost on Wednesday after Canaccord Genuity upgraded its rating on the building materials business to 'buy' from 'hold' and reiterated a target price of €32.00.Canaccord said recent data suggests that the group's end markets should be enjoying continued positive trading momentum.Construction lead indicators in some European countries are at "significant post financial crisis highs", the broker said. While the US has seen some weakness in public construction, residential and commercial work remains strong and the "good trend" in US materials pricing is continuing."Recent lead indicators suggest that trading, particularly in Europe, has been supportive for management's recent full year guidance," said Canaccord."With good trading supporting a fast deleveraging balance sheet, as we enter 2017, the market is likely to increasingly focus on a strengthening balance sheet which offers potential for further acquisitions and investment. Share price has edged lower over the last few months with valuation now looking more attractive."Canaccord said it reiterates its positive medium-term view on attractive organic growth, deleveraging and acquisitions. HSBC upped its ratings on budget carriers EasyJet and Ryanair on Wednesday as it took a look at European airlines.The bank upgraded EasyJet to 'buy' from 'reduce' and lifted the price target to 1,150p from 800p.It upgraded Ryanair to 'hold' from 'reduce' and raised the price target to €12.00 from €8.50."We think the structural challenges facing the European short haul market are widely understood by investors and sentiment should be close to the bottom."Among the European low cost airlines, EasyJet and Ryanair are long-term winners in our view, and will see stronger earnings momentum, thanks to more beneficial fuel hedge positions into next year, in contrast to quoted competitors who have substantially benefitted from falling fuel this year."The bank noted a preference for EasyJet over Ryanair and attributed it to the fact that EZJ is currently trading on consensus margins below its cyclical mid-point, having faced a confluence of challenges from Brexit, terror attacks and operational instability.Ryanair, on the other hand, is trading above its long-term mid cycle margin, benefiting from the revenue uplifts from its successful repositioning, some two years later than EasyJet saw its margins peak.HSBC was also keen to highlight the differences between EZJ and RYA and their peers."Given their out of the money fuel hedges this year and better hedges into CY17, both easyJet and Ryanair will have considerable fuel cost savings into next year. By contrast, the quoted low cost competitors Wizz and Norwegian, have had more beneficial fuel costs this year and will face fare less benefit from fuel next year."Ryanair released its traffic stats for October earlier on Wednesday. They showed traffic was up 13% to 10.9m customers, while the load factor - which gauges how full the planes are - nudged up to 95% from 94%.

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