By Giles Elgood
LONDON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Algeria's swift use of lethalforce against Islamist fighters who seized one of its main gasfields raised concerns in the West but came as no surprise athome and showed clearly how the government would respond tofuture jihadist attacks.
By the time special forces had cleared the In Amenas complexat the weekend, nearly 70 hostages and militants lay dead. SomeWestern leaders seemed unaware of what was happening on theground, complaining that they had not been consulted about thedecision to go in with foreign hostages' lives at stake.
For the Algerian leadership, the decision to attack withhelicopters, snipers and special forces to tackle insurgents whohad threatened to blow up the plant was apparently an easy oneand the operation was seen as a success that has boosted theprestige of the armed forces.
"We are proud of our army's special forces and the wholeworld has understood that this reaction was the only possibleresponse," Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal said. "When thesecurity of the country is at risk, you have to be firm."
That reaction was clearly conditioned by the turbulentrecent history of a country that jealously guards itssovereignty and sees those it regards as Islamist "terrorists"as a threat that must be snuffed out. And with a war in progressin neighbouring Mali, it is a threat that looms larger now.
Algeria fought a bitter war of independence against Francein the 1950s and an even bloodier civil war against Islamistinsurgents in the 1990s that cost 200,000 lives. Its leadershipis secretive, authoritarian and determined to preserve the statein the face of Islamist unrest.
Oil and gas account for the bulk of Algeria's exportearnings and the funds enable the government to subsidise foodand fuel prices and cushion the effect of unemployment,particularly among the young.
OIL WEALTH
Hydrocarbon wealth enabled Algeria to dodge the upheavals ofthe Arab Spring and experts believe that any further Islamistattacks on its oil and gas industry will be met with force by asecurity establishment determined to maintain the status quo.
More Islamist attacks are likely, but they are expected tobe smaller, with foreign workers at risk from shootings andbombings. The security forces will deal with them firmly, saidRichard Jackson, Deputy Director of Violent Risk Forecasting atthe Exclusive Analysis consultancy.
"They are likely to respond in a forceful and rapid way toany future events," he said.
Prime Minister Sellal has been at pains to stress that theproblem his country faces is not related to Islam, but toterrorism and banditry.
"I particularly call on Arab countries, in order to tellthem that we are not facing an Islamic issue, but terrorists andmercenaries," he said.
"We must protect our religion, our civilisation, whichterrorists are destroying. How can we imagine that such an actsare perpetrated on behalf of Islam. These crimes will not beallowed in Algeria."
The leader of the group behind the In Amenas attack, MokhtarBelmokhtar, is known to be active in cigarette smuggling andkidnap and ransom, which many see as undermining any claim topurely religious motivation.
MILITARY RESPONSE
Some in Algeria suggest, however, that the military responseto religious radicalism may not be effective on its own. Arepositioning of religious values away from those espoused byforeign teachers may be necessary.
"Military combat against Salafi jihadists is needed, but itis not enough. We must also combat their ideology by returningto our values, our religious references," said Mohamed Mouloudi,an independent analyst on Islamic issues.
"Algeria doesn't need Saudi muftis to tell its citizens whatis permitted and what is not, as is the case now. We must reformour education system, we must reform the way the governmenthandles religion. If not, we will very soon become an annexe ofSalafi ideology."
Although the In Amenas attack was plotted in Mali andinvolved foreign jihadists, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb canbe found in Algeria.
Algerian libraries today contain religious texts originatingmainly in Saudi Arabia, written by scholars who endorse thehard-line Wahhabi ideology, Mouloudi said.
"I am not saying they are all terrorists, but I am sayingthe ideas they promote clash with our values and our culture,"he said.
In the meantime, however, one beneficiary of the In Amenasoperation may be the Algerian military, whose politicalinfluence could be boosted as the country approaches an electionin which it is unclear whether Abdelaziz Bouteflika, in powersince 1999, will stand.
"The successful military assault has boosted the Algerian army's popularity among the people, which is an important factor15 months ahead of a presidential election in which the militarycould play a major role in promoting a candidate," said anAlgerian analyst, who asked not to be named because of thesensitivity of the issue.
BP (BP.)
