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Italy's Monte dei Paschi gears up for London roadshow amid investor nerves - sources

Thu, 29th Mar 2018 18:43

* Bank executives to meet investors in London on Apr. 4

* Investors worried that the Italian lender needs more cash

* Political uncertainty seen as another fear factor

*

By Maiya Keidan, Pamela Barbaglia and Paola Arosio

LONDON/MILAN, March 29 (Reuters) - Italy's Banca Monte deiPaschi di Siena (MPS) will meet investors in London onApril 4, in a bid to soothe concerns that the lender may needmore cash after a costly bailout, sources close to the bank toldReuters.

The Tuscan bank is grappling with falling revenues and highbad loans that led to an 8.1 billion euro ($10 billion) bailoutlast year, with Rome injecting 3.9 billion euros into thecountry's fourth-largest bank and investors shouldering therest.

Political uncertainty in Italy following an inconclusivegeneral election adds to the nervousness surrounding Monte deiPaschi, which is 68 percent owned by the state.

The parties that currently seem most likely to form the nextgovernment - the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and thefar-right League - have both expressed hostility to the bank'sbailout and resistance to any forms of public support forItalian banks.

Monte dei Paschi may need to raise more money or be rescuedby a healthier lender if regulators force it to cut its bad loanburden more quickly than currently anticipated in itsrestructuring plan, one of the sources said.

UBI Banca has been tipped in the Italian press as apossible white knight for Monte dei Paschi, but like otherItalian banks it has repeatedly denied interest. One of thesources said the only option for Monte dei Paschi might be toengineer a three-way merger with two healthier domestic peers.

Monte dei Paschi and the Treasury declined to comment. Lastweek, the bank issued a statement to quell speculation it mayneed fresh capital and said its turnaround plan was on track.

REASSURANCE NEEDED

The sources said Monte dei Paschi's CEO Marco Morelli isseeking to reassure investors concerned with the decline of theshare price and slow progress on the restructuring plan agreedwith the EU Commission.

The bank's newly-appointed chief financial officer, AndreaRovellini, will also join the investor meetings, which have beenorganised by Barclays.

Shares in Monte dei Paschi have lost around 40 percent oftheir value since they resumed trading on the Milan bourse fivemonths ago at a price of 4.1 euros.

"There is no reason to buy the stock: no signs of turnaroundyet, possible further loan losses and the absence of a buyerwhich - by now this is clear - is needed," said Luca Fer,founder of BxItaly & BxWorld Hedge Funds which became ashareholder of the bank following a debt-to-equity conversionwhich was part of the bailout.

Monte dei Paschi posted a 2017 loss of 3.5 billion euros hitby 5.3 billion euros in writedowns of bad debts and fallingrevenues.

"They've got to communicate and they've got to have acredible plan," an investor who owns shares in the bank said.

The bank will offload by mid-2018 24 billion euros in baddebts with the help of a state-sponsored, privately-financedbanking rescue fund.

It plans another 2.6 billion euros in bad loan sales thisyear but even if it succeeds it would still hold 18 billioneuros in soured debts, or around 15 percent of its total lending- three times the European average.

It aims to trim that ratio to 14 percent in 2019 at a timewhen the European Central Bank is pressing Italian lenders tocut their proportion of bad loans to below 10 percent of totalloans.

The investor, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said thebank would have to raise one or two billion euros to cut theratio to 10 percent.

"The market needs to be realistic because this is not aneconomy that is firing at full growth potential even if thingsare better than they were," he said. "What makes it worse thistime around is the political environment in Italy."

($1 = 0.8137 euros)(Additional reporting by Valentina Za in Milan and GiuseppeFonte in Rome; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)

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