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Oil futures crash no help to sellers of the real thing

Wed, 26th Aug 2015 09:15

* Oil futures rout fails to spur demand in physical market

* From Russia to Nigeria, crude values still depressed

* Abundant Sept-Oct loadings point to persistent glut

By Alex Lawler, Libby George and Dmitry Zhdannikov

LONDON/MOSCOW, Aug 26 (Reuters) - When oil futures marketscrash - as they have this summer - physical markets often movethe other way as refiners jump on the opportunity offered bycheap oil to stockpile.

With futures prices now hovering around six and a half yearlows, the physical market would typically begin to strengthenand signal a potential rebound in futures - in a repeat ofpatterns seen during the previous crisis of 2008/09.

But traders in barrels from Nigeria to Russia say thephysical market remains stubbornly weak in further evidence aglobal crude oil glut is proving much more difficult to clear.

"I can't remember when during such a correction (infutures), differentials and values in the physical market stayedso weak. It tells me only one thing - the glut is still weighingon the market," said a trader in the Mediterranean market.

Oil prices have tumbled to around $40 per barrel from their2014 peaks of $115 as a supply glut caused by a U.S. shale boomwas aggravated by an OPEC decision to open the pumps to fightfor market share and depress output of high-cost producers.

As oil prices began their slide, traders of Russian, Azeri,Kazakh, Nigerian and Angolan oil rushed to offer their grades atsteep discounts as they struggled to place it with buyers.

The trend has continued for most of the past year,challenging the views from the likes of the International EnergyAgency and big producer Saudi Arabia, which have repeatedly saidlower prices would spur demand and ultimately help clear theglut.

"Strong demand? If it was as strong as everyone is saying,cargoes would be clearing much faster," a Russian trader said.

Russian Urals crude has been trading at a discount ofbetween $1 and $2 per barrel to benchmark dated Brent innorthern Europe compared with a discount of less than $1 duringmost of 2009, when oil futures began a recovery from their 2008lows.

Azeri Light is trading not far off its weakest premium toBrent since 2010 and Nigeria's Qua Iboe grade - one of the keyvictims of the U.S. shale boom, which almost fully displaced itfrom the American markets - is hovering not far off its lowestpremiums to dated Brent in a decade.

SUPPLY TO SPIKE FURTHER

U.S. bank Morgan Stanley, one of the biggest playersin commodities markets in the past decades, said this week thelatest weakness in oil futures appeared to be more driven byfinancials than physical markets.

"While oil fundamentals aren't strong, physical markets donot corroborate the substantial weakness in flat price," itsanalysts, including Adam Longson, said.

He cited Brent time spreads remaining more resilient in thepast weeks than flat prices; the spread between Brent and U.S.WTI benchmarks narrowing despite concerns about high U.S.inventory builds; and North Sea and West African crude valuesbeing slightly stronger in recent weeks.

Traders said they would like to agree with Morgan Stanley'sviews but supply dynamics for the next months suggested theweakness would most likely prevail.

Several traders in Angolan crude said China was slowingbuying, leaving large quantities of oil on the market whileOctober loadings were the biggest since February.

Thus far there are only seven cargoes with Angolan crudegoing to term buyers compared with 12 to 15 in the past months.China's Unipec took only two cargoes compared with the usualfive.

Nigeria plans to export at least 2.04 million barrels perday of crude oil in October, the highest level this year.

This comes at an unfortunate time for African nations, asEuropean refinery maintenance typically peaks in October,limiting the amount of crude oil they consume.

Russian September Urals exports are also expected to spikeas domestic refineries undergo maintenance, adding to heavysupplies from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

Output from the 12 main British and Norwegian crude streamsis set to climb to a 2015 high in September at 1.99 millionbarrels per day, reflecting the end of summer field maintenanceseason.

Underlining the struggle to sell cargoes, Shell this weekoffered a cargo of Gullfaks grade - usually sold in private andconfidential deals - in the public Platts window. (Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by Susan Thomas)

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