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Malaysia's $30 bln drive reverses oil decline, boosts gas

Fri, 14th Jun 2013 08:53

* Oil output to rise above 600,000 bpd as Gumusut-Kakapramps up

* Gas production headed for fresh high before 2020 -WoodMackenzie

* Malaysia ranked 4th in added oil, gas reserves in 2012-Wood Mackenzie

By Florence Tan

KUALA LUMPUR, June 14 (Reuters) - Malaysia's $30 billionpush to find more oil and gas is paying off, with domestic crudeoutput bouncing off a recent 20-year low and natural gasproduction on track to hit a record high before the end of thedecade.

Southeast Asia's second-biggest oil producer expects itscrude and condensate output to rise to more than 600,000 barrelsper day (bpd) in the next five years as new big fields start upand natural decline is stemmed at mature fields.

Malaysia's oil output is not likely to rise much higher thanthat as most recent finds have been gas, although production ofliquids may briefly approach former levels near 700,000 bpd whensome of the new fields hit their peaks.

"It'll go above 600,000 bpd of total liquid production fromMalaysia and then it will plateau," Wee Yiaw Hin, the head ofexploration and production for state oil and gas companyPetronas, told Reuters.

Recent discoveries offshore Sarawak and Sabah, however,could push the country's gas output to a record high by 2020,ensuring Malaysia will remain one of Asia's largest suppliers ofthe liquefied form of the fuel, and easing worries that fallingreserves and rising domestic demand could curb LNG exports.

Gas makes up about 60 percent of Malaysia's total oil andgas output, and the shift in production will be increasinglyimportant not only for Petronas, but also to the government,which gets nearly half its budget from the state oil company.

Malaysia's natural gas output is expected to rise to arecord 7 billion cubic feet per day in 2018, up from about 6billion now, according to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Petronas, which owns and manages Malaysia's oil and gasresources, previously forecast 2013 pre-tax profit of 89 billionringgit ($29 billion), flat on last year, with lower oil pricesoffsetting a 2 percent rise in total production.

AGGRESSIVE PLAY PAYS OFF IN GAS

Petronas and partners made 24 discoveries last year,including two overseas, adding 2 billion barrels of oilequivalent to the country's reserves, Wee said.

According to Wood Mackenzie, Malaysia ranked fourth globallyin terms of reserves added in 2012.

"We very seldom see a Southeast Asian country in the top 10and that success is in Sarawak in gas," said Craig McMahon, leadSoutheast Asia analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

One of Malaysia's biggest gas finds is in Block SK310offshore Sarawak, where Newfield Exploration estimatesinitial gas in place at 1.5 trillion to 3 trillion cubic feet.

Petronas spent around 93 billion ringgit ($30 billion) over2008-2011 to reverse falling output, mostly at home. Its successis in sharp contrast to neighbour Indonesia.

Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest oil and gas producer,has seen its liquids output drop to around 830,000 bpd, abouthalf 1990s levels; while its gas output has dropped to 8.2billion cubic feet a day, down 12 percent from 2010.

Indonesia has also been pushing to reverse its decliningoutput, setting ambitious targets, but has struggled to attractnew international oil and gas investors.

"Petronas is very much the regional poster child when itcomes to NOCs (national oil companies)," McMahon said.

Malaysia's revised exploration and development tax treatmentattracted ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell,deepwater specialists like Murphy Oil Corp and smallerfirms such as Newfield Exploration Co, McMahon said.

This year, Petronas and its contractors have already madethree new discoveries in the first quarter and more areexpected, Wee said. "Our exploration programme in Malaysiacontinues to be very aggressive," he said.

Malaysia was the second-largest LNG exporter in 2012,according to BP's review of world energy, shipping 24 milliontonnes from its liquefying plant in Bintulu in Sarawak, mostlyto Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

Petronas plans to make a final investment decision laterthis year to build a second floating LNG (FLNG) terminaloffshore Sabah, while its first FLNG project is still underway.

With a ninth train to be added at Bintulu, a total 6.3million tonnes per year of new LNG capacity will be onstream in2015-2016.

With gas output set to rise, Petronas could also renew someexpiring term contracts for LNG, McMahon said.

OIL REVERSAL

Much of Malaysia's added oil output will come from theShell-operated Gumusut-Kakap and Malikai fields offshore Sabah.

Gumusut-Kakap alone will add up to 120,000 bpd when theSabah Oil and Gas Terminal in Kimanis is completed next year,Petronas' Wee said.

"In the next three to five years, we will be able to sustainor even grow our production from these new projects," Wee said.

Malaysia's liquids output in 2012 was at 586,000 bpd,according to Petronas. It fell to its lowest in 20 years at569,000 bpd in 2011. ()

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