* European shares fall in choppy trade after sell-off
* Eyes on ECB policy meeting
* Results from Facebook, Amazon, Google, Apple due later
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DOUBLE DIP IN Q4 AND MORE DOWNSIDE RISKS (1206 GMT)
Virus trajectories are the major issue for the euro zone
economy and now probably also for stocks as the correlation
between Covid and European equity is back to its highest levels.
Hopes that the virus will be less dangerous than last spring
are fading as hospitalisations and ICU (intensive care unit)
occupancy are starting to pick up (see charts below).
According to Morgan Stanley, more lockdowns might be on
their way in Europe.
“Belgium looks to have the health care system under most
strain,” while further “measures in Italy and the Netherlands
also look possible.”
Cases in Ireland, which imposed a similar partial lockdown a
week ago, “seem to be edging lower.”
Bottom line, MS projects a 0.1% fall in euro area GDP over
Q4 2020 and a weak Q1 2021, “with downside risks if the
restrictions persist or become more stringent.”
Morgan Stanley confirms its expectations of more easing from
the ECB at its December policy meeting.
A UBS analysis yesterday suggested that one month rolling
correlation between the Stoxx 600 and new Covid cases is back to
April levels while there was none from May to end-September.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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MORE BAD NEWS FOR LUXURY (1020 GMT)
Nobody likes restrictive measures but luxury will probably
be one of the hardest hit industries after France said it would
go back to a nationwide lockdown.
“The impact of store closures in France, one of the biggest
luxury goods markets in the region, in the important Q4, and
looming risk of further closures across the continent is going
to result in negative earnings revisions for the companies in
our coverage,” a UBS research note says.
The new measures in France, which will last until Dec. 1,
will mean people have to stay in their homes except to buy
essential goods, seek medical attention, or use their daily
one-hour allocation of exercise.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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EUROPE OPENS HIGHER AS TECH SHINES (0848 GMT)
European stocks manage to keep their head above water as of
now, after yesterday’s brutal selloff as focus turns to an ECB
policy meeting which might give some clues about fresh stimulus.
Tech stocks are among the best performers, despite a double
digit fall in Nokia shares, ahead of results in the
from Apple, Alphabet, Facebook and Twitter.
The Stoxx 600 index is up 0.3%, with real estate
sector leading gains up 1.1% and tech stocks up 1%. Insurers and
travel and leisure stocks are down about 0.6%.
Shares in Orange are up 5.1% after results, while
BT +7% after the company raises the lower end of its
earnings outlook for the year.
Royal Dutch Shell shares rise 3.8% after the
company said it will increase its third-quarter dividend by 4%
and reported stronger-than-expected profits.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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ON THE RADAR: SHELL, AB INBEV, AIRBUS, NOKIA (0733 GMT)
European stocks are attempting to open slightly higher a day
after the biggest fall in months and hours ahead of an ECB
policy meeting.
Meanwhile senior sources in the British government expect
the vaccine, which Pfizer is co-developing with Germany's
BioNTech, could be ready to distribute before
Christmas, the Times reports. A verdict on this vaccine will be
available before the results are in on AstraZeneca Plc's
competing vaccine, it adds.
On the corporate front, a batch of good results is on its
way, with Nokia reporting third-quarter underlying
profit in line with market expectations.
Royal Dutch Shell will increase its third-quarter
dividend by 4% after stronger-than-expected profits in the
quarter.
Anheuser-Busch InBev reports a surprise increase in
beer sales in the third quarter, although profits dip and its
interim dividend payment is scrapped due to the COVID-19
pandemic.
Airbus expects to reach cash breakeven in the
fourth quarter, setting the first forward-looking target since
the start of the coronavirus crisis, after posting revenues of
11.2 billion euros versus analysts’ expectations of 11.4
billion.
Shares in Fresenius are up 2.3% in premarket trade
after the company’s third-quarter net income beats expectations.
Orange posts a 0.4% decline in its third-quarter
core operating profit, beating market expectations.
Telefonica expects a return to revenue growth in
2022 after a 785 million euro impairment charge in Argentina
dragged it to a net loss in the third quarter.
Volkswagen shares are up 1.8% in premarket trade
after the company returned to profitability in the third
quarter.
Roche shares are up 2.5% in premarket trade after
Chinese approval of Tecentriq.
Credit Suisse Group is seen down 1% after the bank
posts a 546 million Swiss francs in July-September, which is
compared with the 572 million franc median of 17 analyst
estimates compiled by the lender.
Standard Chartered booked a smaller-than-expected
40% slide in quarterly profit as the lender lowered its loan
loss expectations, also saying client demand was likely to
increase next year.
U.S. jeweller Tiffany & Co agreed with LVMH
to slightly lower the price of its acquisition by the
French luxury goods group, in a move set to end a legal dispute
between the two.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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EUROPEAN STOCKS POISED FOR A REBOUND (0633 GMT)
European stock futures are in positive territory after
yesterday’s biggest fall in months on fears about the economic
impact of new restrictive measures across Europe.
Equities seem ready for a rebound ahead of an ECB policy
meeting scheduled for today which might give some clues about a
possible new round of economic stimulus.
German unemployment and inflation data, European confidence
surveys will also be closely watched, while uncertainty about
U.S. presidential elections and coronavirus worries continue to
keep investors on edge.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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