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ANALYSIS-New wave of mega LNG projects is approaching

Mon, 06th Aug 2018 11:57

(In AUG 6 story corrects LNG Canada volume in table) * LNG market expected to tip into supply deficit inmid-2020s * Several large projects set to get green light * LNG seen as fuel to help shift to low carbon economy By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Ron Bousso LONDON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - A new race to build multi-billiondollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants is gaining momentumafter a long hiatus in investments as energy giants sense awidening supply gap within five years. Spending on new, complex facilities that super-chill gasinto liquid in order to allow its transportation dried upfollowing the collapse in energy prices in 2014. Appetite was further dampened by fears that a plethora ofLNG plants built since the late 2000s would lead to a largesupply glut until early in the next decade. But sentiment has radically changed over the past year.Buoyed by rising oil prices and exceptionally strong demand fromrapidly growing economies such as China and India, executivesare increasingly confident conditions are once again ripe fornew projects. Qatar, the world's largest LNG producer, is preparing toexpand its facilities by around one third to produce 100-108million tonnes per year (mtpa) by 2023-2024. "The glut that people see I don't see ... If you just counton being pessimistic about the market, and don't buildexpansions, you will never catch that upside when the market isup," Saad al-Kaabi, the head of Qatar Petroleum, told Reuters inMay. The state-owned company expects long-standing partners ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Total andConocoPhillips to help build and fund the new expansionphases as well as possibly new entrants, he said. A major change in the outlook happened after China stronglyboosted imports of LNG in recent years to reduce coal burn inits fight against pollution. "The supply-demand balance definitely looks more favourabletowards producers these days," said Philippe Sauquet, the headof gas at France's Total, the world's second largest LNG traderafter Shell. "China will continue to make the real difference in demand.I don't see them slowing down. They are shifting attention tobuilding more and more infrastructure," Sauquet told Reuters. Major LNG projects facing approval decisions in 2018-2019 Project Country Company Start-up Volume (mtpa) NLNG Nigeria NNPC, Shell, Total, 2020 8 Train 7 Eni LNG Canada Shell, Petrochina, 2023 13 Canada Kogas, Mitsubishi, Petronas Tortue Senegal, BP, Kosmos 2021 2.5 Mauritania Lake Louisiana, Shell, Energy 2023 15 Charles USA Transfer Sabine Louisiana, Cheniere 2023 4.5 Pass T6 USA GoldenPas Texas, USA QP, Exxon, Conoco 23 15 s LNG Rovuma Mozambique Exxon, Eni 2024 15 Qatar Qatar QP 2023 23-30 expansion GAS GAP The LNG market will require over 200 million tonnes per yearof new supply through to 2030, or roughly 25-30 mtpa per year innew capacity additions to 2025, according to Bernstein. "We believe 60 mtpa needs to be sanctioned by 2020 and afurther 100+ mtpa between 2020-2025 to ensure markets areadequately supplied," Bernstein said. Liquefaction capacity additions are expected to fall sharplyby the end of 2019 as newly commissioned plants reach theirmaximum capacity, according to Bernstein. The main source of growth is expected to come from theUnited States, where supplies rose sharply and prices plummetedwith the expansion of shale drilling. Investors were highly critical of oil and gas companiesearlier this decade as costs ballooned for many LNG projectsunder development such as Chevron's $54 billion Gorgon projectin western Australia, the most expensive in history, or Shell's$14 billion Prelude LNG, the world's largest floating structure. But with services costs still languishing in the wake of the2014 slump and new technologies helping to simplify and improvedesigns, new projects are able to compete for capital. Executives also say they have learnt from past mistakes. NEW PROJECTS The renewed confidence in the outlook for LNG and therecovery in oil prices that has led to a surge in revenue forenergy companies, boards are getting ready to invest. Exxon last year bought for $2.8 billion a 25 percent stakein Eni's Rovuma development in Mozambique, which holds a massiveestimated resource of 85 trillion cubic feet. Speaking to Reuters, Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said partnersin the project, Exxon, Korea Gas Corp and ChinaNational Petroleum Corporation , will take a finalinvestment decision next year so it could be operational by2023-2024. The project will produce 15 million tonnes of LNG peryear, or 5 percent of global output. Shell, which acquired BG Group in 2016 for $54 billion toboost its gas output, is nearing a decision on the developmentof LNG Canada. It would be its first new LNG project since 2011. "We expect a supply gap in the gas market in the early 2020s... LNG Canada looks very promising," Shell Chief FinancialOfficer Jessica Uhl said last month. Shell Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden said theAnglo-Dutch company expects the partners in the Nigeria LNGprocessing plant, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation,Shell, Total and Eni, to consider its expansion by the end ofthe year to increase its capacity to 30 mtpa. Shell's British rival BP and its partner KosmosEnergy will decide on the development of the Tortuefield off the coast of Senegal and Mauritania by next year. Global demand for LNG surged by 12 percent in 2017, farexceeding forecasts, and is expected to grow by up to 10 percentin 2018, according to analysts at Bernstein. Oil and gas companies have heralded LNG as the fossil fuelof the future thanks to its relatively low carbon emissions. Natural gas, the least polluting fossil fuel, is a keygrowth area for energy companies which see it playing a pivotalrole in the world's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissionsto fight global warming. For companies like Shell and BP, the share of gas productionhas surpassed that of oil in recent years. (Reporting by Ron Bousso; editing by David Evans)
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