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Pin to quick picksWt Cocoa 2x Share News (LCOC)

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China demand not as weak as import slump suggests

Mon, 09th Feb 2015 05:03

* China January imports down 20 pct

* Commodity imports are particularly weak

* But data distorted by external factors like Chinese NewYear

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, Feb 9 (Reuters) - A surprising plunge in China'simports shows that Asia's largest economy is still losingmomentum despite a raft of stimulus measures, though globalprice moves and the impact of holidays may have overstated theextent of the downturn.

January imports tumbled 20 percent from a year earlier, thesteepest slide since May 2009 when factories slashed inventoriesin reaction to the global financial crisis. Exports were down anannual 3.3 percent.

The sharp fall in import volumes, led by commodities,suggested China is slowing at an even faster pace than manythought, even after an interest rate cut in November andmeasures to increase liquidity and encourage banks to lend.

Preliminary data showed coal orders down nearly 40 percentto 16.78 million tonnes from December's 27.22 million tonnes.

China also appeared to cut back on its strategic stocking ofcrude oil imports, which slid by 7.9 percent from December to27.98 million tonnes. Oil imports were nearly flat versus theJanuary 2014 total.

"Monthly data is problematic to look at for broaderstructural trends because stocks tend to distort the data," saidMichal Meidan, director of consultancy China Matters.

Factors such as the shifting time of the Chinese New Yearholidays, falling global commodity prices and weaker currenciesin key exporters also make it difficult to track broaderstructural trends from one month to the next.

"For oil, it is very much about stocks. The huge importshave been related to SPR (strategic petroleum reserves) fills;demand growth is slowing and consumption is becoming moreefficient," Meidan added.

As China's SPRs fill up, its oil import demand could bedropping back to levels more accurately reflecting demand.

Markets did not appear to be too alarmed by the sharp dropin Chinese imports. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures were up 20 cents to $58 a barrel at 0125 GMT.

In the coal sector, falling Chinese imports are not justdown to declining demand but also to policy efforts to protectdomestic miners suffering from slowing growth and anti-pollutionpolicies.

Overall, the January data did still show weakening domesticdemand and sluggishness in the industrial sector, HSBCeconomists said, and markets expect Beijing policymakers willresort to further easing measures in response.

Deutsche Bank chief economist Zhiwei Zhang said an annual9.5 percent fall in automobile imports was evidence of weakconsumer demand and carried downside risks for economic growth.

"We continue to expect two interest rate cuts in March andthe second quarter, and one reserve requirement ratio cut (forbanks) in the second quarter," he said.

(Additional reporting by Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen; Editing byGavin Maguire and Will Waterman)

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