* U.S. equity index futures up: Dow up ~0.9%, Nasdaq 100 up
~1.7%
* Euro STOXX 600 index rallies ~1.9%
* Dollar, crude, bitcoin gain; gold falls
* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~1.46%
Dec 7 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of
markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your
thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
S&P 500: ENOUGH DOWNSIDE, OR JUST THE BEGINNING? (0900
EST/1400 GMT)
In the eight trading days from its November 18 record close
to its December 1 finish, the S&P 500 index suffered a 4%
setback,
Since then, it has mounted a choppy recovery. However, with
CME e-mini S&P 500 futures pointing to a more than 1%
rise in early trade Tuesday, the benchmark index could be on
track for back-to-back up days.
Meanwhile, the 5-day moving average of the CBOE equity
put/call (P/C) ratio, which can be viewed as a contrarian
measure of sentiment, has now risen to 0.592, which has it
matching its May 14 high. That high was also just after the SPX
completed a 4% slide, although in that case over just three
trading days:
Of note, since bottoming at 0.402 in mid-June 2020, the P/C
measure has ranged between high-30% and low-60% readings. If
this pattern is to continue, then the measure could be signaling
that market sentiment may have become sufficiently bearish. If
so, the SPX may have found, or could be very close to, a low.
However, also of note, for around 20 years, from 2000 to
2020, the measure's range was mostly in the 50% to 90% area. It
has only been post the COVID-crash, that the P/C measure's range
has shifted down to similar levels that led up to the
tech-bubble peak in 2000.
Therefore, traders will be watching to see if the P/C
measure is to turn down, and oscillate back below 0.4. A
breakout much above the low-0.60 area may signal panic. The
measure peaked at 1.05 on March 17, 2020, in what was a more
than 30% S&P 500 collapse.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR TUESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT
- CLICK HERE:
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)