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GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares flat as investors parse economic data, dollar dips for third day

Fri, 12th Jul 2019 09:54

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Ritvik Carvalho

LONDON, July 12 (Reuters) - World shares came within awhisker of posting their first weekly loss since May on Fridayand the dollar was down for a third day running, as even astronger-than-expected U.S. inflation print failed to shake betson Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

European shares ticked higher in early trade after a run ofmodest falls this week and as investors also digested an end ofweek blizzard of Chinese data from Asia.

China's yuan-denominated exports rose 6.1% in the first halfof this year from a year earlier, while imports increased 1.4%.On top of that its trade surplus with the United States, a majorsource of friction with its biggest trading partner, rose to$29.92 billion in June from $26.9 billion in May.

For an interactive version of the below graphic, click herehttps://tmsnrt.rs/32q0Hb8.

The data comes after a string of disappointing economicreports from around the globe, which showed that the globaleconomy suffered from a protracted U.S.-China trade war thatforced major central banks to take a more accommodative stance.

China is also due to release second-quarter GDP figures onMonday which are expected to show the world's second-largesteconomy slowing to its weakest pace in at least 27 years.

Industrial production figures for the euro zone are due at0900 GMT, and could be an important trigger for the EuropeanCentral Bank to move further along an easing path, witheconomists split on whether the numbers will reveal anymeaningful signs of recovery.

"Euro area industrial production is expected to expand by0.9% month-on-month in May according to the country levelreleases we have to hand so far," RBC analysts said in a note.

This would mark the best monthly expansion in euro areaindustrial production since January, they added, though it willstill represent a significant contraction from May 2018.

There was broad divergence in the estimates retrieved byReuters, with the most optimistic eyeing a 0.9% monthly rise andthe most pessimistic seeing a fall of 0.5% - the same outcome asin April.

European Central Bank policymakers gathering last monthagreed on the need to be ready to provide more stimulus to theeuro zone economy in an environment of "heightened uncertainty",official minutes of the meeting showed on Thursday.

In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific sharesoutside Japan was down 0.1%.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was lowerfor a third straight day, down 0.1%. A stronger-than-expectedreading of failed to shake convictions that the Federal Reservewill start cutting interest rates at a policy meeting later thismonth.

The core U.S. consumer price index, excluding food andenergy, rose 0.3% in June, the largest increase since January2018, data on Thursday showed.

The reading pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, but moneymarkets still indicated one rate cut at the end of July and acumulative 64 basis points in cuts by the end of 2019.

Comments by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans scheduledlater on Friday and New York Fed President John Williams onMonday will provide a chance to gauge how dovish the centralbank is, said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist atMizuho Securities.

"If these Fed officials are not as dovish as Powell, and ifthe New York Fed's manufacturing survey on Monday provesstronger than forecast, they could show that the dollarweakening in response to Powell's congressional testimony wasoverdone."

Elsewhere in currencies, the euro got a boost froma selloff in the German bond market, rising 0.1% to $1.1270.

Safe haven German government bonds were set for theirbiggest weekly selloff in nearly one-and-a-half years as signsof economic strength in the United States and parts of Europesuggested fears of a downturn may be overdone.

Oil prices hovered near six-week highs and were on track fora weekly gain as U.S. oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico cutmore than half their output because of a tropical storm and astensions continued to simmer in the Middle East.

Global benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 gained 0.77% to $67.03per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude wasup 0.68% to $60.57 a barrel.

Gold prices, dulled by the stronger-than-expected U.S.consumer inflation data, regained their shine thanks to renewedtrade worries and rate cut expectations. Spot gold lasttraded up 0.5% at $1,410.99 per ounce.

(Reporting by Ritvik Carvalho; additional reporting by AbhinavRamnarayan and Saikat Chatterjee in LondonEditing by Raissa Kasolowsky)

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