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FOREX-Trade optimism pressures yen but caution prevails ahead of Fed, BOJ

Fri, 13th Sep 2019 01:57

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

* Risk-on sentiment weakens yen

* Euro regains composure after wild ride post-ECB

* Traders eye Fed, BOJ policy moves

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The yen was pinned near asix-week low versus the dollar as signs the United States andChina were narrowing their differences over trade ahead of keytalks decreased demand for safe haven assets.

The euro held steady versus the dollar in Asia afterswinging wildly on Thursday following the European CentralBank's surprise decision to resume government debt purchasesfrom November to support a flagging economy.

In the very short-term, guarded optimism about a resolutionto the U.S.-China trade war should continue to push Treasuryyields higher and weigh on safe-haven currencies.

However, this confidence could be short-lived as the U.S.Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates nextweek while the ECB's easing places pressure on the Bank of Japanto follow suit.

"We've managed to scale back our pessimism about U.S.-Chinatrade talks, which is a supportive factor for now," said TakuyaKanda, general manager of research at Gaitame.com ResearchInstitute in Tokyo.

"Once we start to focus on the Fed's rate cut, perceptionsof the market will change. Treasury yields and dollar/yen lookto be too high and are likely to start drifting lower."

The dollar was a tad higher at 108.170 yen,hovering near a six-week high versus the Japanese currency.

The greenback was up 1.2% versus the yen this week, oncourse for its best weekly performance since November 2018.

The dollar has also drawn support from a spike in U.S.Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year yield at a five-weekhigh.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would notrule out an interim trade pact with China.

The two sides are preparing for new rounds of talks aimed atcurbing a trade war, which has dragged on for more than a year,roiling financial markets and threatening to push othereconomies into recession.

The yen, widely considered a safe-haven currency, tends torise when trade tensions worsen but reverses course and weakenswhen concern about trade friction eases.

Trading could be subdued in Asia on Friday as China'sfinancial markets are closed for a public holiday.

The euro held steady at $1.10635, on course forits second weekly gain against the dollar.

The euro initially tumbled on Thursday after the ECB cut itsdeposit rate by 10 basis points to a record low of minus 0.5%and said it would restart bond purchases at a rate of 20 billioneuros a month from Nov. 1.

The rate cut was widely expected, but the revived bondpurchases were a surprise. Still, the single currency managed toclaw back losses as the ECB's comprehensive stimulus package nowshifts the spotlight to policy meetings next week at the Fed andthe BOJ.

Financial markets have fully priced in a rate cut at theFed's Sept. 17-18 policy meeting. Most economists expectadditional monetary policy easing in October and December.

The Fed cut rates in July for the first time since 2008.

Trump has publicly criticised the Fed for not cutting ratesmore aggressively, but positive economic data has cast somedoubt on the need for extensive easing.

The BOJ is also brainstorming ways to deepen negativeinterest rates at minimal cost to commercial banks, as itconsiders adopting it as a main policy response to a slowingeconomy, sources familiar with the bank's thinking said.

The BOJ's next policy decision is due Sept. 19.(Reporting by Stanley White; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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