Brexit. In the long run a clean break would be best IMHO

But no-one has the balls for that (unless Boris does?). A deal is not fully disconnecting from Europe is it?
No doubt the scare mongerers will post about missing medical drugs, oranges etc... Utter rubbish. Anyone who thinks leaving Europe without a deal will cause problems fror more tha 4 months must be a fool in my opinion. The problems willl be BOTH WAYS so those involved will sort these problems out. Just normal resolving issues. The end of the World is not going to happen!
All IMHO.

Why would they be a fool Emerald ? Got anything to base that comment on ?

I’m pleased youve set this thread up this should be highly amusing.

Taken from the governments leaked document on effects of no deal:

Concurrent events’ ‘financial instability’ ‘commercial failure’ these are just the headlines. ‘There is a notable risk of disruptive concurrent events happening towards the end of 2029’ ‘A financial crisis may increase other risks such as public disorder & mental health’

The pandemic has limited capacity of healthcare sector to prepare’ ‘Critical supply chains will come under pressure, particularly medical ones’ ‘Councils...at high risk of financial failure’

The document assesses 20 critical areas according to a traffic light system Border disruption - red UK nationals in EU - red Oil supply - amber Chemical supply - amber ‘Border disruption could lead to disruption in supply of critical chemicals for food, water, medicine’

Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any rise food in food prices’ ‘Groups most at risk of food insecurity include: lone parents & children in large families’ ‘One or more water companies cd face significant disruption to the supply of essential chemicals’

Public disorder - red ‘Protests & counter protests across UK..risk of Covid’ Law enforcement- red ‘A mutual reduction in ability to combat crime & terrorism’

Continuity of medical supplies’ - red ‘Flow rates could reduce by 60-80 per cent’ ‘Adult social care’ - amber ‘Main risk is provider failure though acutely aware of labour & workforce pressures’

But yes of course I’m sure we’ll just do business with another country & they need us far more than we need them & will be begging. Of course. Lol

How any one of sound mind, with any business or investment knowledge can think you can throw all your toys out of the pram when essentially sitting on a board of 28 and things will go your own way, completely beyond me. Was saying it in 2016 and likely in 2023.

50+ years of laws and legislation.

And the argument.

“We‘ll just do trade with other countries”

Ahhhh yes because there are so many countries lined up to buy U.K. mackerel lol

“UK facing risk of ‘systemic economic crisis’, official paper says“

As does every sane economist.. but I am sure you are right based on.......? and the official government paper & officials are wrong.

Emerald you have been brainwashed by the Brexit "Jackanory" story put about by liarse Boris & Farage, he latter even claims he never said the UK would be better off or that it would save £325 million per day.
The UK needs the EU far more than hey need the UK as will become very apparent to us all as time goes on
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme that the UK's trade with the EU had been declining rapidly in the last 10 years and that it had fallen to about 44%.

An hour earlier, Sir Martin Donnelly, who was the most senior civil servant in the Department for International Trade, told the same programme: "If we leave the Customs Union and the single market then we are taking away the equal access that we've got to 60% of our trade - nearly half directly with the EU and another 12% or so through EU preferential trade deals."

So, how do we reconcile these figures? Well, they're talking about different things.

The figure for 44% of UK trade being with the EU was cited a lot during the EU Referendum - it's actually a 2015 figure just for exports of goods and services. The 2016 figure was 43%, worth about £241bn, and it has indeed fallen from about 54% in 2006. (The figures for UK exports to the EU are here - total UK exports are here.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43212899
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/

mrtibbles - How will the EU prevent a default of a Target 2 debt and a subsequent collapse of the Euro? Italy defaulted on the ERM, Currency Snake and the LMU and Italy has already threatened to default on Target 2.

Britain finds itself on a collision course with France over fishing and access to the EU single market as forms and fees on UK visits to friends and family in France begin to bite
It has been a gloomy week on the sunlit uplands of sovereign Britain as various Brexit chickens continue to come home to roost, before being questioned for several hours at Heathrow, detained at Yarl’s Wood and then deported.
Or should that be Brexit poulets? Many of the key issues seem to involve our ongoing entente with the French, which the B-word has made considerably less cordiale.
Take the UK’s desire to give its massive financial services industry access to the single market, something that was fine in the days before you-know-what. The good news is that our amis over the Channel are ready to help us reclaim that in negotiations with the EU. The bad news is that to do so we will have to allow French fishermen access to Jersey’s fishing grounds, the scene of protests a couple of weeks back.
While Boris Johnson ponders this Catch Vingt-Deux, Brexit zealots now insist that neither fishing nor the single market will matter a jot on the sunlit uplands ahead. Matthew Lynn of the Telegraph called the fishing industry that was supposed to be saved by Brexit “an irrelevance", adding, “Cornwall and St Helier are hardly crucial to the 21st century economy we are meant to be trying to create. He went on to claim the “EU market is no longer worth making any concessions for”, and who can doubt him when financial services are only worth a measly £130billion or so a year, with a third of exports going to the EU?
Meanwhile, the drip of financial services jobs from London to Paris is becoming a threatening trickle. Morgan Stanley will have moved 200 positions there by the end of the year, and aim to have 400 by the end of 2024. JP Morgan is shifting another 200 London staff to the EY this year, mostly to the French capital. Barclays is expanding in Paris too. In total, Brexit has created around 2,500 new financial services jobs in Paris so far, as well as the transfer of €170bn in assets to the French capital. Well done, everyone.
Perhaps the locals will thank us for this unexpected Brexit dividend when we visit friends and family who have relocated to France this summer. As long, that is, as our hosts have remembered that ‘third country rules’ now mean that they need to apply to the maire of their local area at least a month in advance to get an attestation d’accueil for their guests, a tedious and costly process that involves filling out forms, digging out documents and paying a fee before we can travel.

Viral posts on Facebook make claims about how much a number EU countries “owe”. They have been shared over 20,000 times. The numbers given for how much each country owes seem to relate to the size of government debt in those countries—they are a mixture of accurate and inaccurate.
The posts also says that if the UK leaves the EU, France and Germany’s economies will collapse “under the pressure”, and that Greece has also warned it will “collapse”. There is no evidence for this.
The size of EU countries’ debts
The post overstates the size of Ireland’s debt, which it claims to be “865 billion”. The latest data from the first three months of 2019 shows Ireland’s gross national debt was €215 billion.
The post understates the size of Italy’s debt, which it claims to be “1 trillion”. Italy’s national debt is worth €2.4 trillion.
The post was roughly accurate in its reporting of the other two figures—Greece’s debt is worth €337 billion, and Spain’s is worth €1.2 trillion.
It’s worth noting that these countries are not alone in having debts—as we’ve written before, not necessarily a bad thing that a government has debt, and almost all countries do. The UK’s national debt is worth €2.1 trillion.
It’s also helpful to understand the size of a country’s debt in relation to the overall size of its economy. (A debt of €2 trillion is easier for an economy the size of the UK’s to sustain, than it would be for an economy the size of Luxembourg’s).
The UK’s debt is worth around 85% of its total GDP. That level is higher than Ireland’s (66%), but lower than in Spain (99%), Italy (134%) and Greece (182%).

The post claimed that when the UK leaves the EU, France and Germany’s economies will collapse “under the pressure”.
From the context of the post, this seems to be referring to the fact that with the UK no longer paying into the EU budget, France and Germany will have to shoulder more of the cost. It’s correct that the UK has made one of the largest contributions to the EU budget in recent years, along with Germany, France, and Italy. (The exact ranking order depends on which years you look at and whether you count money going from the EU to private organisations within the UK.)
However, the EU's a budget for 2021-2027 doesn’t include the UK. The EU acknowledges that Brexit will leave a “sizeable gap” in the budget, but says this will be managed through increased contributions and decreased spending in some areas.
As yet there no indication that France or Germany think they will be unable to manage the new budget payments.

The post goes on to say that Spain wants UK money to cover their debts, and that Greece has stated they will collapse when the UK leaves the EU.

This latter claim is likely based on press reports from 2018 that claimed Greece had warned that a no deal Brexit would trigger (in the words of the Express) “EU economic meltdown”. This is extremely overstated: it’s actually based on a paper by a researcher at the Greek Ministry of Rural Development & Food that is specifically about what would happen to the EU budget if the UK left in March 2019 (which was the expected leaving date at the time)and refused to pay the “divorce bill”.

It says that says one possible approach the EU might take to covering this budget shortfall “could result in increased financial and political instability” in Greece, and it advocates for a different approach. Nowhere does it say that Brexit will cause Greece to collapse.

Looking at the bigger picture, Brexit would not suddenly make the debts of other EU countries unsustainable.

The EU’s budget is not directly used for managing the debt of member states, and it’s implausible to suggest that any change in the amounts Spain or Greece receive from the EU post-Brexit would be large enough to significantly affect their debt. The sums they currently receive from the EU budget are a fraction of their total national debt.

For example, Greece received just under €3.4 billion from the EU budget in 2018 (once you factor in the amount it paid into the budget)—around 1% of the total value of its debt. Spain received just under €2 billion—around 0.2% of the total value of its debt.

We don’t know exactly how much these countries will receive from the EU budget after the UK leaves the EU, but the next EU budget will be broadly similar in size to the current one. That means any change to a given country’s income is likely to be relatively small.

A no deal Brexit would of course likely have larger economic effects than just the change in EU budget contributions, which could negatively impact the e

The only reason that Italy hasn't defaulted on Target 2, like they defaulted on the three previous monetary systems, is that Draghi bailed them out by buying Italian Government bonds in Dec. 2017. He was head of the ECB at the time and bought more than the ECB rules allowed. IMHO unless the EU splits into a two tier system with the PIIGS in a devalued Euro and the rest still in the Euro, then it's only a matter of time before Italy defaults. The wealthy in Italy are already taking their money out of the system. Take a look at the oldest bank in the world, Monte dei Paschi di Siena.