Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
Posts: 1,227
Let me make it clear that I am neither a trader nor an advisor and that this (drivel) is simply the thoughts which I have for the year ahead. First off, it starts that my ONLY intention is to have my portfolio beat the market. If the market falls, then I expect not to fall as much, but if the market rises, I expect to do better. It has been so since I started to build my portfolio in 1979.
And, despite those that for whatever reason have yet to receive vaccine (and anyone over 40 as far as I am concerned is labelled a vaccination denier), the mortality from SARS CoV-2 is reducing but the morbidity appears to be increasing. This suggests to me that through a combination of vaccine and mutation we are approaching the point where we can begin cope with the effects and start to return to "normal". 2022 should be a year when nations can aggressively deal with the aftermath of a pandemic and re-build.
And, for me that provides opportunity. But, in terms of investments do I look to the "old" with value stocks or the "new" with the holdings that will be our future. And in truth, I don't really know for certain so I have to rely on good old fashioned common sense. BOTH, though with the bias on those companies at the cutting edge. So it is to increase my investment in AI, machine learning and technology as well as strengthening the value investments in mining and energy for infrastructure is always required.
I'm reducing my exposure to South America but increasing my exposure to India. The former because vaccine rollout is poorly documented and the latter as it is ready to take on China as the manufacturing powerhouse for the world and with that their workforce want some of the "action" enjoyed by their oriental counterpart. Again, this returns to "value" that should prosper but not innovation.
Any thoughts from others - either in criticism of my strategy or elements I have failed to consider. (Ignore geo-politics, please)
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Would you consider an Indian EFT such as IIND or NDIA ?
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Hi Topdog21, I have a small holding in IGC and will be increasing my exposure as funds permit. I am certainly not averse to EFT's though I prefer Investment Trusts so I will have a look at those two that you mentioned. It is much appreciated. Thank you.
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Your ambition to beat the market (as defined by FTSE100?) is a worthy one. This time last year FTSE was about 6500, now it's about 7500 roughly 15% gain. I would be delighted with that in place of my loss! Last year I made 50.3%, this year....I'm scared to work out the figure! I certainly took my eye off the ball this year. Good luck for 2022.
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Game developers are a difficult one - I do own shares in Microsoft which is one of the major games players - but it is not a sector that I either understand or am very interested in. Perhaps I should pay more attention.
SadAct, I have reviewed the year that has just passed. After commission, spreads and duties, ISA's put on 16.4%. My SIPP (and that for my wife) managed 15.2% and my dealing account managed 11.7%. ISA's represent 90% wealth and dealing account was raided to buy a new car so capital was withdrawn. The starting date values were deducted from the end date values and a simple result translated into a percentage. All dividends were re-invested. Capital was added to fully fund ISA and 2021/22 was the final tax year for such event without an inheritance.
My target is to seek overall growth in 2022 of 18% to include re-invested dividends. That works out to seek 1.5% growth compound on capital and 0.9% monthly dividend contribution. Dividends allow me to add either 1 new holding each year or, through top slicing /selling and existing holding buy at least 2 new holdings.
FWIW, I have started to reduce my exposure to Tech stocks by increasing my exposure to value ones.
Today is the same date that I have used since 1979 to re-set the starting point and both contributions added during the year along with any withdrawls are deemed to have been executed on 1 January. My average compound growth is 13.54% and there have been years when I have been down - the worst of which was a SIPP that lost 71% through the disastrous backing of a cousin in his launch of TUNG. Brilliant in buying companies, but useless in managing them, I've had many other lemons, of course.
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AS. Thanks for your thoughts. You make a good case for the proposed approachs.
You mentioned reducing exposure, but do you ever sell any of your holdings to fund a new, or increasing position, or just add when you have the available funds.
Do you have any views on enhanced VR/Metaverse/Quantum Computing? An issue for me is the big tech players with their already ATH valuations (apart from IBM) are involved. Additionally, a few of my “global” funds seem to have have many of them in their top ten holdings already.
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Nck-Bris, certainly I sell holdings from time to time. These either are to remove my original capital and allow profits to run or if my attitude to risk changes.
For instance in 2017 I reduced my attitude to risk from HIGH to MEDIUM HIGH because of the beligerant stable genius and his international “policy” with China. It was perhaps a little early, but served me well as I sold up many of my holdings with earnings centered on China such as HSBC.
In mid 2019, my attitude to risk changed in anticipation of a change in politics in USA. I sold all of my real estate holdings, LAND, VIstry, Brit Land, Persimmon and bought shares in Nvidia, Adobe, AFC, Varta and Deutsche Bourse.
Deutsche Bourse was sold in 2020 in favour of CME and a reduction in ATT was made to buy shares in Thermo Fischer and ASML. Despite an eye watering daily capital fall in the crazy month (late Feb to late March) my portfolio recovered and put on 16.71% growth over the remander of the year.
This year had started so promisingly, but promptly fell (for me) to be 4% or so down. Not fussed and added to my holdings in RDSB, RIO and EZJ yesterday
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A-S. - many thanks for your advice. Food for thought.
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Nick-Bris, putting things in perspective, thus far 2022 has got off to a poor start. If "wealth" were simply a note in an accountant ledger then I am slightly over £104,000 down this month from the point when I started this year.
The reality is that I have increased my exposure to 4 equities (already held) with dividends received and new cash introduced and will be adding more cash to holdings to take advantage of lower priced goods that are (as far as I am concerned) should be considered as part of my "weekly shop".
That "markets" have been spooked with the prospect of rising interest rates and a war, is part and parcel of the "rules" for investors. We all know that the past has repeated itself but that this time might be "different" and that the behavior is to do exactly the same as on previous occasions.
FWIW, I try to narrow my greatest exposure to those companies that have the greatest likelihood to prosper. And sometimes weight is added to a minnow and on others to the goliath. I've added to RIO, AFC, THRG . RDSB, MTU and IGC and have sold shares in AXI.
Paper losses are meaningless until crystalised. The culprits for colossal falls are from holdings quoted on NASDAQ such as NVDA, ASML, ADBE, MA. No biggie..... it will all come back in time. I console myself that falls are usually swift but gains are slow and sustained
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For many, January was a shocker and for me it was no exception. Perhaps I am exceptional, but my portfolio is not limited to shares executed on the London Stock Exchange. The bulk of wealth consequent on the holdings owned are executed on foreign exchanges.
My risk is set to HIGH (which is perhaps more or less cautious than you might have for your wealth) and I expect average movement of at least 1% daily. In a bear market there will be more down days than up with the reverse true for bull markets.
So...... what sort of market are we in? My reading of the tea leaves is that there has been a battle going on between growth and value for the last year with an oscillation between the two. 2022, I believe will weigh more on the value side for growth and punctuated with the betrayal of strength from time to time from growth equities.
I am approaching the point where value holdings are not sufficient on their own account to support myself and wife through dividend income alone and it will be at least 8 years for that to trigger based on current and forecast yield. I am thus reliant to continue to align my portfolio for growth.
Doubtless you will have worked out my strategy - but for those that have not, I seek capital growth where, from time to time proceeds from disposals are apportioned between growth and value to cement a core that is aligned to provide for day to day needs and anything thrown off from growth holdings broadens exposure to value holdings as I advance in years and diminish in responsibility
Posts: 1,227
In common with many, February saw further falls through the buildup of tensions in the Balkans. Things worsened with the invasion of Russia into Ukraine but, I believe that the worst is now over for investors, though grim for decades for both Ukrainians and Russians.
Having suffered a 20%+ fall in paper wealth, I took a little time once I returned from 3 weeks skiing with my family (that is quite a shock to the wallet these days) to look at where the gaps, strengths and weaknesses are in my portfolio and am happy that there is no structural change that is needed. I have a little cash that can be put to play, but not really enough to put into play at the moment. My average "unit" is to deal in £15,000 amounts and at the moment I don't have quite enough cash from dividends to make a new investment. I can therefore either strengthen, average or dispose of holdings before my next bargain is executed.
Despite my general bullish nature, I am going to wait. Probably a more difficult decision than filling in the gaps/adding to strengths or shoring up weaknesses.
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And now, as we close April, my portfolio remains down, though the losses are down to 5 figures from 6. Still an awful lot of "money", but it is simply a change in wealth as determined on a piece of paper. Of course, it is not as attractive as being up on the year, but these things need to be put into perspective.
For a start, over the last 50 years the average gain has risen from 12.5% to 13.6% with a few years where gains exceeded 20%. And, 2022 might just be a year that produces negative returns. These, I have to be honest are rare, but not unkonwn. Usually there is good reason for such a fall. Sometimes it is simply picking the wrong equities but for 2022, there is a combination of multiple factors. Inflation, Russia:Ukraine war, political upheaval (election in France, local elections in UK, mid-term elections in US) and the need to revive welfare following a pandemic that, although off the radar, remains present.
I forecast a period that economists like to label as a recession. For me, I consider is breathing space.
So..... what to do and how to play things?
Well, in the past, dividends accumulated over 2 months would make a difference, but nowadays to have the same effect 20 months worth are needed. Perhaps this is due to my exposure to US growth stocks from my choice of high risk weighting.
I will review in a couple of months time.
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May for me has got a whole heap worse. Following a massive stroke my father has died and there is the matter of his estate to wrap up. Fortunately I am not an executor (that is the perogative of my younger siblings), but there have been express wishes for neither funeral nor memorial. So this makes mourning all the more difficult as a date for cremation has only finally been confirmed for next month.
I believe we are now in the early stage of a bear market, one that will last 18 months or so, so my decision to sit on cash for the time being is probably sensible. However, what is not known is where the opportunities will arise to begin to re-invest.
I am in no hurry at the moment to sell anything let alone add to holdings (except with my monthly drip).... and I am adding to RIO, NWG and EZJ if that is of any consequence.