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Posts: 3,382
Hi, I have a position in the March contract for Brent. I went long from 5383 and am now looking at 4617 :o( The contract expires on the 12th Feb and my broker offers a roll-over to the April contract which will save me a few points on the spread (compared with closing March and then opening April myself). I am not sure that I want to rollover. I can probably improve on the saving this facility offers by just setting a highish limit for the sale and a lowish limit for the buy. There is at the moment a 180 point difference between the two months' contracts which goes against me. I still expect oil to increase in the next few months. What would be a good strategy for closing the current contract and opening another? In particular, what price targets or timing would people suggest? Is there a better way for me to get exposure to an increasing oil price? Maybe this can become a useful thread for others looking at evolving from investor->trader->derivatives/options trader. thanks, Monaco
Posts: 3,382
Ok, thanks. So would either of you (or anyone else) care to recommend a target price for unwinding my March contract over the next 3 days or getting into the ETC for Sept? I am not a blind follower of these boards by any means but I have been surprised a few times by oil so do not want to sell too low or pay too much. thanks, Monaco
Posts: 3,382
I am glued to the April Brent Contract now. Won a couple of times but mostly down. This cannot be healthy!
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Wow, what a ride, it nearly turned my hair grey. April contract now up over 4900 and my four contracts, bought at various points, have all come good. Never again...until the next time.
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Hi Monaco , hope your New Year went well , yep , the April contract down about 400 points since your post!
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Hi Ive also been following the sept brent contract but also thought there was a bit more scope in the etc crude oil contract for sept with ig index.I bought under $40 level for us light crude thinking it would closely track this.Can anyone shed any light as it does not seem to have gone back to the equivalent at which ive bought even though price of us light is close to the level at which i bought into .Stoploss is set quite far away so only a paper loss at present but annoyed with myself for not checking further.Any advice appreciated.
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Thanks ChartTrader7 for that explanation, thought id got in at a lowish price of 2150 on the sept etc contract as that had been the lowest but it fell from there quite a bit over last 2 weeks.This week it does seem as if the oil news may be getting a bit more promising.Im wondering whether to get in again at a lowish point but not sure which to go for , the crude or the brent , any thoughts ?
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Oil - Brent Crude etc Thought that I’d add my thoughts to this section as ‘oil’ is a large position of mine Commerzbank state that with crude oil supply falling by more than oil demand, they expect global inventories to decline and prices to recover further. Additionally there are reports that the United Arab Emirates has notified its customers in Asia of delivery cuts in April of as much as 5% compared with March, helping fuel speculation that OPEC might again lower its production quotas at the next meeting in March. A consensus from 32 analysts this week suggested an average price of $52.22 a barrel in 2009 and $68.39 in 2010. Having bought further at $40 last week, taken some profits this week, and with an average 'cost' of $43.05 for the remaining holding, and I am happy to hold at the current price of $46. Given the large stake in April ’09 Brent Crude (as well as an even larger stake in BP) I’d humbly suggest that my blog might be worth looking at – updated very week www.successfulspreadtrading.blogspot.com
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jone 3261 Just had a look through your blog , makes for good reading and I will keep my eye on bp , price does look as if it has some potential.
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Chartrader7 Forgot to say thanks as have followed some of your advice in the past , in particular the guide to charts and advice on numerous shares but unite group and kaz stand out in particular and Ive made a few good trades on Tesco using the charts.
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hahoo - carnage today all round - oil (Brent Crude) hit along with BP. The discussions that I have had with 'investors' recently do signify to me that we have reached almost total capitulation - there is a view out there that many have been so hurt by all this that they wont go near the markets again. When all the scared sellers have left, and that must be the case to a large extent - since those who still hold wont sell much at the current prices - then buyers will previal, and prices ought to go up. I do feel that the bottom might be close - I have bought more oil today at $42.16 and hold £7 a point at an average of below $42.80. It's not in profit now of course, but as long as I stay within my margins, I wont be a forced seller. Until mid february, April Crude traded (mostly) over $45 - and BP at 490 - I really cant see oil staying this low, and when it heads back, BP ought to as well. A good price for BP would be 500 - look at the charts - that's 10% ahead of where it is at the moment - at least. I really cant imagine that anyone would want to short BP under 450 - nor indeed VOD below 125.... WE shall see!
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Jone3261 Hi,ive been following your blog weekly,very impressed and did well out of bp,glaxo,and i made a good trade on tesco as well.Did well last week with the good increases although got caught out today thinking id got back in at a lower level,$50 for us light.Looking back brent at 42 seems a good deal,also noticed today that brent has gone back to being at a premium to us light when historically its the other way round.Feel like i went back in too soon today,ah well ! How also do you deal with the rollover spread on brent,ive bought the dec etc 1 month contracts before to minimise it, regards