Reflect & Prepare

Friday, 15th March 2019 14:04 - by Rajan Dhall

It has been a quiet week in the US, both in terms of political and economic news and events.  The numbers out of the US has have been relatively positive with durable goods orders net positive over January, while consumers have also been 'hitting the malls' with ex-gas and auto spending rising 1.2% on the month.  However, today's industrial production stats were soft, so the combination of mixed data boils down to the fact that the Fed is in a neutral mode in its monetary policy stance, and this is being reflected in buoyancy on Wall Street.

 

The benchmark S&P 500 continues to push for a move beyond the technically relevant 2820 mark, with a view to perhaps retesting the cycle highs we reached in October last year before the sharp declines into year end.

 

There is a strong element of improving trade relations with China behind this as the US president continues to promise a positive outcome to the talks, so there is clearly an air of this being priced in and some disappointment around the corner.  In terms of global trade, it is clear that there will be some positive input from resolving the disputes, though the underlying concerns over China's economic slowdown continue to lurk below the surface.

 

It has been a significant week in UK politics this week, and perhaps even the direction of the economy with regards to breaking away from the EU.  We have to be careful in how we view the process, as both sides are clear that relations with Europe should and will remain strong given the geographical and historical perspectives.  As such, both sides want to avoid a disruptive exit and a largely 'Remain' orientated parliament managed to win a vote this week to take 'no deal' off the table. It remains the case that the default position is that of leaving without a deal at the present time, but the last of the votes this week was that of requesting an extension to Article 50 which is now in the hands of the EU.  The EU meet next week to deliberate next week and will require a process to attach to any agreement to facilitate this.

 

In the meantime, Theresa May is set to re-table her deal to parliament once again - the third time - in the hope that the hardliners and the DUP will have been unnerved by the week's voting, which now brings an element of risk that there could be no Brexit at all.  That said, parliament also voted against a second referendum to add to the ongoing uncertainty, yet fears (and odds) of a crash out have been reduced. UK data continues to hold up, however, with Jan GDP up 0.5%. This does not rule out delayed effects of the Brexit process, so constant monitoring will keep the BoE on the sidelines for now.

 

Movers and Losers

 

Dixons Carphone +8%: The FCA has imposed a fine of £29.1 million on the company, inclusive of the discount applied on early settlement, it has been said that the market was expecting worse.

 

Restaurant Group +9.5%: The Co. reported total revenue was up 1% to £686m. Also, profit before tax stood at £13.93 million, compared to profit of £28.83 million reported in the previous year.

 

Petrofac +9%: The Co. announced that they had won a $1bn contract for the Ain Tsila development project in Algeria.

 

Just Group -14%: The Co. cancelled its dividend and sought £380million of fresh funding, in addition to this, the Co. made £86million of losses in 2018 having notched up a profit of £181million the previous year.

 

Next Week

 

Monday: EU trade balance, Japanese industrial production

Final Result

ADES International Holding Ltd [ADES]

BigBlu Broadband PLC [BBB]

Brady PLC [BRY]

Hansteen Holdings PLC [HSTN]

IFG Group PLC [IFP]

Microgen PLC [MCGN]

Quixant [QXT]

SpaceandPeople PLC [SAL]

Spectra Systems Corporation [SPSY]

Trading Statement

Pennon Group PLC [PNN]

AGM / EGM

Velocity Composites Plc [VEL]

 

Tuesday: RBA meeting minutes, UK earnings data, German ZEW, US factory orders, BoJ minutes

Final Result

Access Intelligence PLC [ACC]

Alliance Pharma PLC [APH]

Barr (A G) PLC [BAG]

Boku Inc. [BOKU]

Clarke (T) PLC [CTO]

Gulf Marine Services PLC [GMS]

LiDCO Group PLC [LID]

Moss Bros Group PLC [MOSB]

Personal Group Holdings PLC [PGH]

Pelatro Plc [PTRO]

Premier Technical Services Group Plc [PTSG]

S & U PLC [SUS]

XLMedia Plc [XLM]

AGM / EGM

Jyske Bank AS [0MGD]

Tritax Eurobox Plc [EBOX]

I-nexus Global Plc [INX]

LXB Retail Properties Plc [LXB]

Trading Statement

United Utilities Group PLC [UU.]

 

Wednesday: UK CPI, DoE’s, Fed rate decision, NZ GDP, German PPI

Final Result

Anglo Pacific Group PLC [APF]

Brave Bison Group Plc [BBSN]

Cloudcall Group Plc [CALL]

Churchill China PLC [CHH]

CPP Group PLC [CPP]

Hilton Food Group PLC [HFG]

RHI Magnesita NV [RHIM]

AGM / EGM

Amino Technologies PLC [AMO]

Premier Veterinary Group PLC [PVG]

Trading Statement

Diploma PLC [DPLM]

Interim Result

Bellway PLC [BWY]

 

Thursday: AUD employment data, SNB rate decision, Norweigan rate decision, ECB economic bulletin, UK retail sales, BoE rate decision, US current account

Final Result

BBGI Sicav S.A. [BBGI]

Biome Technologies PLC [BIOM]

Eddie Stobart Logistics Plc [ESL]

Gulf Keystone Petroleum [GKP]

India Capital Growth Fund Ltd [IGC]

Intelligent Ultrasound Group PLC [MED]

Interim Result

Ceres Power Holdings PLC [CWR]

Diurnal Group Plc [DNL]

Tritax Eurobox Plc [EBOX]

International Public Partnership Ltd [INPP]

AGM / EGM

Aukett Swanke Group PLC [AUK]

Chenavari Capital Solutions [CCSL]

 

Friday: French & German manufacturing, EU services PMI’s, Russian rate decision, Canadian retails sales, US manufacturing PMI, US services PMI, US existing home sales, Fed budget balance

AGM / EGM

Angus Energy Plc [ANGS]

Local Shopping REIT (The) PLC [LSR]

Micro Focus International PLC [MCRO]

St Modwen Properties PLC [SMP]

Final Result

Chesnara PLC [CSN]

Cathay International Holdings Ltd [CTI]

Have a great weekend!

 

Kind Regards

 

Rajan Dhall

 

 

The Writer's views are their own, not a representation of London South East's. No advice is inferred or given. If you require financial advice, please seek an Independent Financial Adviser.