Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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First 3 quarters of 2021 look pretty p### poor. So to me it indicates that we should have little expectation of any real sp rise till next year, unless Regua (you know, the one we borrowed all that extra money for to get it producing) does something. Forget about gold, MM has. The Grant wouldn’t move anything (btw the expectation from 15/01/21that we will get it in H1 2021 is silly and should be read much like other expectations that MM has proved in the RNSs, no one in their right mind should assume any such thing as we have no control over it and with the state of Gov’t finances at present it is wishful thinking, just look at all the other times they were “expecting” it (this one is down to Shard wanting to be optimistic).
Troajan "so obviously,the mines problems,from 2020,are believed to be ironed out"
Nothing obvious about that at all. 910t for the complete year 2021 forecast. Its obvious that they don't have it sorted out and 2021 is going to be heavily loss making
K3VMC
"That makes no sense. Commercial rates are obviously affected by price. If the price of tungsten was $600/mtu, then clearly, they can have commercial rates with less production"
Production at commercial rates. if you want it spelling out. Its like a childs toy at the minute. Oh what a failure.
GUG
“ Currently, getting it out of the ground at commercial rates is far more important than the price.”
That makes no sense. Commercial rates are obviously affected by price. If the price of tungsten was $600/mtu, then clearly, they can have commercial rates with less production.
“They have not been able too yet and the Shard reports indicates that they will not for the remainder of the year.”
A+ for paying attention to the bleeding obvious.
“As for next year, who knows.”
I don’t, and neither do you. My investment remains here because I believe they will produce more. You are not an investor. You are entitled to your opinion, whatever that is.
Currently, getting it out of the ground at commercial rates is far more important than the price. They have not been able too yet and the Shard reports indicates that they will not for the remainder of the year. As for next year, who knows.
Onto the 90m shares that are quoted. It does not take "into account the further expected dilution within their figures" It prices in the KNOWN exercisable instruments. So Atlas/warrants and Blackrock. This does not include any further dilution that will likely soon be coming along.
Sleep tight
GIT
“You do not have to be a mathematical genius to work out that if tungsten increases by say 20% that the SP will be A lot higher (if it’s a straight linear increase 47p) but in reality as the costs will not increase, only the revenue considerably higher.”
True. ANY increase in tungsten price fall through to the bottom line. I can also see a case for the EU wanting to take a strategic position in LP.
Plus, with a Ukraine v Russia face-off, what would they pay for that?
Anyway, no way is that tungsten staying in the ground, and it’s not going to get out of it without somebody, hopefully the invested on this board (step one pace back GUG, Jaf and maybe a few others?) getting paid.
Of course, as with most of my posts, this is all imho. DYOR. HAGD. BYOB.
:-))
Troajan
I think that Shard have as stated been very cautious, and let’s be honest, we can all understand why, given the numerous occasions that we have missed previous targets !
That said they have presumed 90.5 million shares in issue, and so have taken into account the further expected dilution within their figures, and I note with cautious optimism that they are still using a figure of $260 per mtu for tungsten, whereas the current price is circa $278, and they state that if the tungsten price increased by just 10% (so that’s $286 per mtu) that their SP prediction rises from 23p to 35p, and that’s all based on a total annul production figure of just 910 tons.
You do not have to be a mathematical genius to work out that if tungsten increases by say 20% that the SP will be A lot higher (if it’s a straight linear increase 47p) but in reality as the costs will not increase, only the revenue considerably higher.
All in all I believe that 2021 will be the year that we consolidate and improve and that from next year onwards we will finally see a significantly improved SP.
just seen the shad report.
and yes,you was right getinthere,$11 mill revs on 1000t,this year
more importantly
shad see the plant/mine,recovering to near expectations,ok,not 2700t,but 2000t
next year
so obviously,the mines problems,from 2020,are believed to be ironed out
a bit late,but i can live with 2000t's per year or estimated,$15 mill,EBIDTA
on the whole,that reports,favourable,to expectations,but obviously,less than the 2018/19 fid.
£7 mill mcap?....it wont be next year,with $15 mill ebidta